2023-12-01

S&P 500

12/1/23 SPX Daily Outlook

#SPX #DailyOutlook: We have been trading in a range throughout this week and we have expanded the range from the buy side and the sell side. We took PDLs but held inside the 4H+FVG/D+OB. My trade today was a buy near the 4H+FVG(H) but that buy didn't play out until the 3:30pm. Closed the trade out as a 1:1 and finished the day.

1H chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/Epwczakb/

4H chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/UWBzYiEm/

D Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/D2pTjPSH/

US30

12/1/23 US30 Daily Outlook

#US30 #DailyOutlook  We moved through the W-RB/D-OB with an impulse to the upside to take out PWHs from 7/24 and 2/7. This put us at the highs around 2.6% off of created a new all time high on US30. We left +FVGs on the 4H and Daily and these will be my focus going into Friday and into next week, “How do we manage the FVG levels. Today’s PDL is out of range and we have already tapped the high. Given the news today is will be interesting to see the reaction of price. 

10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 11:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 2:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks

We have #PMI and Powell speaking as our biggest movers tomorrow and given that there is news in the morning and in the afternoon there may be stalled prices throughout the day. We may all see two swings as well so the biggest thing will be to trade with risk in mind. 

#BullishCase: The bullish case for me will be to tap the AS/SY session highs and return to the 4H+FVG in the process. That’s if we can do this before the news release. Would like to see us hold within the range of the 4H+FVG and make a bounce from there.  

#BearishCase: The bearish case will be to move to the LTF and look for sell to but setups within the range to reach the high, middle and low of the 4H+FVG and the D+FVG. One area in particular is the 1H+OB near the mid point of the D+FVG. Us trading down to this area would be in line with the trend. 

1H chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/d43TYfdY/

4H chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/8EKhXjRj/

D chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/FrSLJiL0/

DXY

12/1/23 DXY Daily Outlook

#DXY #DailyOutlook  A huge bounce of DXY today. We traded through many of the -POIs to tap off of the WH to set a new WH, traded through the WOP and rejected off the combination of the YOP and a 4H-FVG. Price opened tonight with a Gap down to the 4H-FVG/4H-OB we traded through. The question going into tomorrow will be which -POI do we return to and once we figure that out, does it hold Bullish? Looking at the daily chart the first POI will be the 4H-FVG and the Price Gap.

We have #PMI and Powell speaking as our biggest movers tomorrow and given that there is news in the morning and in the afternoon there may be stalled prices throughout the day. We may all see two swings as well so the biggest thing will be to trade with risk in mind.

DXY bullish = XXX/USD bearish & USD/XXX bullish DXY bearish = XXX/USD bullish & USD/XXX bearish

1H chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/9ulFnmpB/   4H chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/kymKrtM3/

D chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/BFveuzQ9/

NASDAQ 100

12/1/23 NAS Daily Outlook

#NAS #DailyOutlook  We created a -CHOCH after taking out yesterday's PDL and several others. We moved so late in the afternoon so there was no buy up at the close. The BSL at the NY Close is the first draw and the 1H+FVG will need resolve first.

10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 11:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 2:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks

We have #PMI and Powell speaking as our biggest movers tomorrow and given that there is news in the morning and in the afternoon there may be stalled prices throughout the day. We may all see two swings as well so the biggest thing will be to trade with risk in mind.

#BullishCase: The bullish case will be how we manage this fresh 1H+FVG and the fresh 1H+OB. With the news tomorrow I'll be patient with all trades and lower my risk on entries unless I see a A+ setup up

#BearishCase: The bearish case will be how we manage BSL, the 1H-FVG, WOP. We can look for a reaction at these areas for the continuation to the down side.

1H chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/IISA64N9/

4h chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/lKpPTN6l/

D chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/L6RcLqEc/