2026-08-28

MES1!

Pre-Market Playbook — Friday, August 28, 2026

Market Context

Friday opens as a reactionary, catalyst-driven session rather than one where I want to force a directional bias before the bell.

Stock futures are mixed and the market is essentially counting down to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address at 10:00 AM ET. Nvidia gave us an upside catalyst earlier in the week, but Thursday's follow-through wasn't particularly clean. The market ultimately pushed higher, but the move was choppy rather than the straightforward expansion I was looking for.

So today, I'm not going to assume that yesterday's strength automatically continues.

The second major theme remains Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is calling for international resistance to U.S. sanctions while simultaneously saying diplomacy remains possible. That keeps geopolitical risk in the background, but Jackson Hole is the immediate event risk for this session.

CNBC — Stock futures are mixed as investors count down to Warsh's Jackson Hole address

CNBC — Iran calls for global pushback against U.S. sanctions, says diplomacy “isn't impossible”

The market has a major decision point at 10:00 AM, so patience matters more than prediction today.

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Economic Calendar

There isn't much scheduled before the cash open, but the calendar gets considerably more important after it.

9:00 AM — FOMC Member Hammack Speaks

9:45 AM — Chicago PMI

• ▸Forecast: 57.9
• ▸Previous: 57.6

Then comes the main event:

10:00 AM — Fed Chair Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole

Also scheduled at 10:00:

Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls Revision

• ▸Previous: -911K

Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• ▸Forecast: 51.0
• ▸Previous: 51.0

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

• ▸Previous: 4.3%

And this is Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

That creates a pretty obvious trading problem: the cash session opens at 9:30, but the largest scheduled catalyst arrives only 30 minutes later.

I don't want to confuse pre-speech positioning with genuine price discovery.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current Price: ~14.48

VIX continues to push lower and is making fresh short-term lows.

The timeframe matrix is also broadly bearish across the board, which fits what price is doing. Volatility remains compressed while the equity indices sit near the upper end of their recent ranges.

That's supportive for equities—but VIX is also approaching some important downside liquidity.

VIX Downside Scenario

The immediate objective is:

14.42 — Weekly Low

Below that, I want to see whether VIX can continue toward roughly:

14.30

Then we enter an important cluster:

14.25 — NWOG Low

14.20 — Daily VIB High

Inside the volume imbalance:

14.20 — High 14.16 — Midpoint 14.12 — Low

There's also:

14.18 — Previous Week Low

So the real downside magnet is:

14.42 → 14.30 → 14.25 → 14.20 → 14.18 → 14.16 → 14.12

That's a lot of structure packed into a very small range.

If VIX continues bleeding into 14.25–14.12 while MNQ and MES break their highs, that would provide strong intermarket confirmation for equity continuation.

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VIX Upside Scenario

If volatility reverses, first I want:

14.57 — Daily Open

Then:

14.58 — Daily High

followed immediately by:

14.61 — NWOG Midpoint

Above there, watch:

~14.74

14.80 — NWOG 75%

Then:

14.85 — Yearly Open

and:

14.98 — NWOG High

A move through 14.98 would put yesterday's:

15.13 — High / Current NWOG Low

back in play.

Above 15.13:

15.30 — NWOG 25%

So:

14.57 → 14.61 → 14.80 → 14.85 → 14.98 → 15.13 → 15.30

VIX Decision

Below 14.42: supports equity expansion.

Into 14.25–14.12: significant downside volatility target zone.

Above 14.61: first warning that volatility is trying to reverse.

Above 14.80–14.85: equity longs deserve more caution.

Above 14.98: much more meaningful risk-off signal.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current Price: ~29,630

MNQ is basically sitting around its daily opening price and consolidating after Thursday's move.

Despite Nvidia's earnings catalyst, we haven't gotten the clean runaway continuation that might have been expected. Instead, price is holding near the upper end of Thursday's range.

That makes today's range boundaries more useful than trying to guess direction.

MNQ Bullish Scenario

The first objective is the immediate premarket swing high:

~29,652

Then the important level:

29,707.50 — Weekly High

Above the weekly high:

~29,759 — Previous Day High

then:

~29,785 — Swing High

Clearing those levels opens the larger upside objective we've been tracking all week:

Daily Inverted FVG

29,905.75 — iFVG Low

30,005 — iFVG Midpoint

30,104 — iFVG High

So:

29,652 → 29,707.50 → ~29,759 → ~29,785 → 29,905.75 → 30,005 → 30,104

That 29,905.75–30,104 imbalance remains the main upside draw if Nasdaq finally develops sustained expansion.

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MNQ Bearish Scenario

First I want price below today's immediate low:

~29,578 — Daily/Premarket Low

Then:

~29,525 — Prior Swing Low

That puts yesterday's NDOG directly back into play.

Thursday NDOG

29,500 — High

29,465.50 — Midpoint

29,431 — Low

So:

29,578 → 29,525 → 29,500 → 29,465.50 → 29,431

Below the gap:

~29,392 — Weekly Open area

Then the lower change-of-state structure around:

~29,287

Losing 29,431 is more meaningful to me than a routine retracement from current prices because it would mean MNQ has completely traded through Thursday's opening gap.

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current Price: ~7,741 Daily Open: 7,734.75

MES is also consolidating near the upper portion of Thursday's range.

The timeframe matrix is predominantly bullish, and price remains above Thursday's NDOG.

Again, though, that doesn't mean I need to chase it before Warsh.

MES Bullish Scenario

First:

7,747.75 — Daily High

Then:

7,755.75 — Weekly High

Above the weekly high:

7,764.75 — Previous Day High

That takes us directly into the larger daily bearish fair value gap.

Daily Bearish FVG

7,766.50 — FVG Low

Inside the gap we also have:

7,770.75 — Previous Day High

Then:

7,781.50 — FVG Midpoint

And finally:

7,796.50 — FVG High

So:

7,747.75 → 7,755.75 → 7,764.75 → 7,766.50 → 7,770.75 → 7,781.50 → 7,796.50

The 7,766.50–7,796.50 daily imbalance remains my primary higher-timeframe upside draw.

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MES Bearish Scenario

The first warning is a move beneath:

7,736.25

Then:

7,734.75 — Daily Open

Below the open:

7,731 — London Swing Low

then:

7,727 — Daily Low

Below there:

7,722.75 — Prior Swing Low

and we enter Thursday's opening gap:

Thursday NDOG

7,722 — High

7,716 — Midpoint

7,710 — Low

Below the NDOG:

7,702.75 — Previous Day Low

And a larger downside rotation could eventually target:

7,693.75 — Weekly Open

So:

7,736.25 → 7,734.75 → 7,731 → 7,727 → 7,722 → 7,716 → 7,710 → 7,702.75 → 7,693.75

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Intermarket Scenarios

1. Pre-Warsh Equity Expansion

The clean bullish configuration would be:

VIX: breaks 14.42 and continues toward 14.25–14.12

MNQ: clears 29,652 → 29,707.50

MES: clears 7,747.75 → 7,755.75

Then I can start targeting the larger imbalances:

MNQ → 29,905.75 → 30,005 → 30,104

MES → 7,766.50 → 7,781.50 → 7,796.50

This is the scenario where the market stops waiting for Jackson Hole and begins pricing a favorable outcome before the speech.

I'm willing to participate if the setup is clean, but I don't want to overstay the trade heading into 10:00.

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2. Warsh Risk-Off Reaction

This is where VIX becomes particularly useful.

I want to see:

VIX: reclaim 14.61, then 14.80–14.85

while:

MNQ: loses 29,578 → 29,525 → 29,500

and:

MES: loses 7,734.75 → 7,727 → 7,722

If all three develop together, the downside has considerably more credibility.

Then I'm watching:

MNQ → 29,465.50 → 29,431

MES → 7,716 → 7,710 → 7,702.75

If VIX reaches 14.98+ simultaneously, I'd be even less interested in fighting the equity selloff.

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3. Jackson Hole Whipsaw

This may actually be today's highest-risk scenario.

Price can break one side of the morning range on a Warsh headline, reverse immediately, and then take the opposite side.

So around 10:00, the first move does not automatically equal the real move.

What matters is whether price can hold beyond the level it just broke.

MNQ above 29,707.50 and holding is different from briefly sweeping it.

MES above 7,755.75 and accepting is different from tagging it and immediately falling back underneath.

And VIX breaking 14.42, only to violently reclaim 14.61, would be a major warning against chasing equity highs.

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High Post

Today is about timing more than bias.

The market is compressed ahead of a known 10:00 AM catalyst. VIX is pressing its lows while MNQ and MES remain near their highs. Structurally, that gives equities the advantage entering the session.

But the edge disappears quickly if I start pressing buttons simply because everything looks bullish before Jackson Hole.

My three primary decision zones are:

VIX: 14.42 → 14.12 downside / 14.61 → 14.85 upside

MNQ: 29,578 downside / 29,707.50 upside

MES: 7,727–7,734.75 downside / 7,747.75–7,755.75 upside

If I get a clean setup early, I can take it and potentially be finished before Warsh.

If I don't?

Sit on my hands.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with allowing the 10:00 volatility to happen without me and trading the structure it leaves behind.

Today's reminder:

The goal isn't to predict what Warsh says. The goal is to trade what the market does after he says it.