2026-05-06

MES1!

📊 May 6, 2026 – Premarket Playbook

🌍 Macro Narrative

Breaking News

Overnight, reports hit that:

The U.S. and Iran are closing in on a deal to end the war.

Oil immediately sold off as the market priced in:

• ▸Lower geopolitical risk
• ▸Potential reopening of trade routes
• ▸Risk premium coming out of the market

News hit around:

4:50am EST

And both MES and VIX repriced immediately.

---

🔴 Scheduled News

8:15am — USD — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

• ▸Previous: 62K
• ▸Forecast: 118K

➡️ Market is expecting stronger employment growth versus the previous release.

---

9:30am — USD — FOMC Member Musalem Speaks

➡️ Potential headline risk.

---

10:30am — USD — Crude Oil Inventories

• ▸Previous: -6.2M
• ▸Forecast: -3.4M

➡️ Important today given the oil / Iran narrative.

---

🟣 VIX – Market Structure

Current State

VIX opened with another gap lower, creating a NDOG:

Today’s NDOG

• ▸17.38 (H)
• ▸17.26 (M)
• ▸17.15 (L)

---

Key Context

• ▸17.15 = DOP
• ▸Price has not traded back into the gap
• ▸We are making fresh WLs

---

Higher-Timeframe Context

Price is trading inside this week’s NWOG:

NWOG

• ▸17.38 (H)
• ▸17.18 (M)
• ▸16.99 (L)

And trading near:

MOP

• ▸17.01

---

Liquidity Swept

After the 4:50am news, VIX took:

✅ Swing Low: 16.64 ✅ PWL: 16.44

Next downside draw:

🎯 16.04

---

Additional Context

We still have two open NDOGs above price:

Today’s NDOG

• ▸17.38 → 17.15

Yesterday’s NDOG

• ▸18.29 → 17.95

---

Read

VIX is:

• ▸Not filling gaps
• ▸Not reclaiming structure
• ▸Sweeping downside liquidity
• ▸Delivering lower

➡️ This is:

Aggressive volatility liquidation

As long as VIX stays below:

• ▸17.15
• ▸17.26
• ▸17.38

Bias remains lower.

---

🔵 MES – Market Structure

Current State

MES opened with a gap higher, creating a NDOG:

Today’s NDOG

• ▸7303.00 (H)
• ▸7299.50 (M)
• ▸7295.75 (L)

Price has traded into the gap slightly…

…but only thinly.

Gap remains largely respected.

---

Price Action

After the 4:50am news, price:

✅ Broke the overnight range highs ✅ Broke previous highs ✅ Created fresh ATHs

---

Current ATH

🎯 7322.25

And still pushing.

---

Higher-Timeframe Context

Price remains above the weekly opening gap:

NWOG

• ▸7282.75 (H)
• ▸7265.25 (M)
• ▸7247.75 (L)

---

Intraday Structure Below

DL

• ▸7293.50

Swing Low

• ▸7299.25

DOP

• ▸7303.00

Swing High

• ▸7314.75

---

Read

MES is:

• ▸Holding the opening gap
• ▸Holding above weekly imbalance
• ▸Breaking into fresh ATHs

➡️ This is:

Aggressive bullish delivery

---

🔗 Correlation Read

This is clean.

VIX

Making:

• ▸New WLs
• ▸Sweeping downside liquidity

MES

Making:

• ▸New ATHs

➡️ Perfect inverse correlation.

---

⚠️ Market Condition

News-driven trend day until proven otherwise

Not compression.

Not balance.

This is:

Active delivery

---

🎯 Trade Framework

🟢 Bullish MES Scenario (Primary)

Conditions

VIX

Must stay weak.

Needs to remain below:

• ▸17.15
• ▸17.26
• ▸17.38

And continue targeting:

• ▸16.44
• ▸16.04

No reclaim of today’s gap.

---

MES

Must hold:

• ▸7314.75
• ▸7303.00
• ▸7299.25

Then continue higher.

---

A+ Setup

I’m not chasing ATHs.

I want:

1.

A pullback into:

• ▸1m / 5m OB
• ▸1m / 5m FVG

2.

VIX remains weak.

3.

MES displaces higher.

➡️ Then I’ll look for continuation.

---

🔴 Bearish MES Scenario (Countertrend)

Lower probability.

Only valid if:

VIX

Starts reclaiming:

• ▸17.01
• ▸17.15
• ▸17.26
• ▸17.38

And starts filling today’s gap.

---

MES

Loses:

• ▸7314.75
• ▸7303.00
• ▸7299.25
• ▸7293.50

And starts filling today’s gap.

Targets:

• ▸7295.75
• ▸Then potentially back into NWOG

---

🚫 What I’m Avoiding

I’m not:

• ▸Shorting because price is at ATHs
• ▸Chasing breakouts
• ▸Ignoring VIX

If VIX stays weak…

Bias stays bullish.

---

🕒 Trading Plan

Trading Window

• ▸7:00am – 12:00pm

Highest Probability Window

• ▸8:30am – 10:30am

Preferred entries:

After the 9:30am cash open

---

Headline Risk

9:30am

FOMC speaker

10:30am

Oil inventories

Both can create:

• ▸Secondary expansion
• ▸Profit-taking
• ▸Temporary reversals

---

🧠 Final Read

VIX

• ▸In liquidation
• ▸Open gaps above
• ▸No reclaim

MES

• ▸Fresh ATHs
• ▸Holding opening gap
• ▸Holding weekly imbalance

Correlation

• ▸Fully aligned

---

🧭 Final Summary (Your Voice)

VIX opened with another gap to the downside and has not traded back into it, continuing to make new weekly lows while sweeping the swing low and previous week low.

MES gapped higher, held the gap, broke the overnight highs after the 4:50am Iran news, and is now making fresh all-time highs.

The inverse correlation is clean.

Oil is selling off as the market prices a possible U.S.–Iran deal, removing risk premium from the market.

As long as VIX stays weak and doesn’t reclaim its opening gap, bias remains bullish on MES.

I’m not chasing highs.

I’m waiting for pullbacks into structure and confirmation after 9:30.

If VIX reclaims its gap and MES loses support, I’ll reassess.

Until then…

Trend is up. Patience for structure.