2026-05-20

MES1!

📊 Wednesday, May 20, 2026 — Premarket Playbook

Market continues to trade in a:

• ▸rotational environment
• ▸liquidity-seeking environment
• ▸overlapping HTF PDA environment

No major directional expansion yet.

Today looks more like:

reactionary trading rather than aggressive trend continuation.

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🌍 Macro Narrative

Overnight:

• ▸ES and NQ both traded away from weekly lows
• ▸VIX continues compressing lower
• ▸Markets reclaimed portions of prior weekly gaps
• ▸Still no strong displacement through major HTF highs

Current condition:

balanced-to-slightly bullish intraday structure.

But still:

• ▸inside major HTF ranges
• ▸below major external liquidity
• ▸inside overlapping fair value gaps and NWOG structures

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📰 News / Macro Calendar

Key Events

10:30am — Crude Oil Inventories

Forecast: -2.5M

2:00pm — FOMC Meeting Minutes

(Outside primary trading window)

Other Events

• ▸FOMC Member Bostic speaking
• ▸No major red-folder morning catalyst

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💰 Earnings Focus

After Close

NVDA Earnings

This is the major event of the week.

Other notable names:

• ▸SNOW
• ▸ADI
• ▸TGT
• ▸LOW
• ▸TJX

Market likely remains cautious ahead of NVDA.

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🔵 MES — Market Structure

Current Price

7406.00

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Key Weekly Structure

Weekly Open

7403.75

Price is now reclaiming above weekly open.

That is important because:

ES spent most of the week below it.

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Previous Week NWOG

• ▸High: 7421.00
• ▸Mid: 7412.50
• ▸Low: 7403.75

Current price:

sitting directly inside the gap.

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Current Liquidity Above

Swing High

7415.25

Swing High

7433.00

Previous Day High

7440.75

Weekly High

7454.25

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Liquidity Below

Weekly Low

7353.75

Previous Week Low

7363.25

Previous Day Low

7337.00

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Daily +FVG Below

• ▸High: 7345.50
• ▸Mid: 7316.50
• ▸Low: 7287.25

Additional liquidity:

• ▸Previous day low → 7293.50

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Intraday Bullish Order Blocks

OB #1

7389.25

OB #2

7381.50

Potential support if price retraces lower.

Also:

• ▸small intraday FVGs present
• ▸possible IFVG setup forming near daily open structure

---

MES Read

Current structure suggests:

• ▸rejection from weekly lows
• ▸reclaim attempt into weekly imbalance
• ▸possible continuation higher IF weekly open holds

But:

7412 → 7421 remains heavy reaction territory.

Need displacement above those levels.

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🟣 VIX — Market Structure

Current Price

17.92

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Key Structure

VIX continues compressing lower and remains:

• ▸below this week’s NWOG
• ▸inside prior week’s NWOG

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Current Levels

Daily Open

18.37

Previous Day High

18.36

Weekly Low

17.66

Swing Low

17.85

---

This Week NWOG

• ▸High: 19.25
• ▸Mid: 18.84
• ▸Low: 18.43

VIX remains below this structure.

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Prior Week NWOG

• ▸High: 18.21
• ▸Mid: 17.70
• ▸Low: 17.19

Quadrants:

• ▸Upper quadrant → 17.95
• ▸Lower quadrant → 17.44

Current price:

sitting directly around upper quadrant equilibrium.

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VIX Read

VIX is stalling between:

• ▸prior weekly gap
• ▸current weekly gap

That usually signals:

compression before expansion.

If VIX loses:

• ▸17.85
• ▸then 17.70

That would favor:

• ▸continuation higher on ES/NQ.

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🟡 MNQ — Market Structure

Current Price

29,124.25

---

Weekly Open

29,135.25

Price is trading just below weekly open.

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Daily Bullish FVG

• ▸High: 29,222.25
• ▸Mid: 29,083.75
• ▸Low: 28,945.00

Current price:

sitting directly inside the middle of the daily imbalance.

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1H Bullish Breaker

• ▸High: 28,929.75
• ▸Mid: 28,829.25
• ▸Low: 28,729.00

Market reacted strongly from this breaker overnight.

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Key Intraday Levels

Daily Open

28,930.00

Asian High

29,023.75

Daily High

29,158.00

Previous Day High

29,190.00

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Major Liquidity Above

Weekly High

29,419.75

Swing High

29,487.00

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Liquidity Below

Weekly Low

28,663.00

Previous Day Low

28,542.00

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MNQ Read

NQ structure currently looks:

• ▸slightly stronger than ES
• ▸more responsive off the breaker
• ▸holding inside bullish HTF imbalance

If:

• ▸29,158 breaks
• ▸and weekly open holds

Then:

29,190 becomes likely.

Above there:

• ▸weekly high
• ▸swing high become targets.

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🔗 Correlation Read

Current read:

slight bullish intraday lean while VIX remains soft.

But:

• ▸no true expansion yet
• ▸still rotational overall

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🎯 Trading Scenarios

🟢 Bullish Scenario

If:

• ▸VIX loses 17.85
• ▸ES holds weekly open
• ▸NQ clears 29,158

Targets:

MES

• ▸7412
• ▸7421
• ▸7433
• ▸7440

MNQ

• ▸29,190
• ▸29,419
• ▸29,487

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🔴 Bearish Scenario

If:

• ▸VIX reclaims 18.21
• ▸ES loses 7389 OB
• ▸NQ loses 29,083 FVG midpoint

Then look for:

• ▸retracement back toward weekly lows
• ▸potential revisit of daily bullish FVGs

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🧠 Overall Read

Today feels like:

“patient continuation trading.”

Not:

aggressive breakout trading.

Main things to watch:

• ▸VIX compression
• ▸weekly open reactions
• ▸displacement through intraday highs
• ▸reactions around NWOG boundaries

The market still feels:

• ▸balanced
• ▸cautious
• ▸waiting for NVDA earnings catalyst later this week.

Best approach:

• ▸let price confirm first
• ▸avoid forcing early entries
• ▸use VIX for confirmation
• ▸stay selective

#staydiscipline #staypatient