2026-05-28

MNQ1!

Pre-Market Playbook (PMP) — Thursday, May 28, 2026

Macro / Narrative Overview

Today is a major macro day.

At 8:30 AM EST, we get:

• ▸Core PCE Price Index
• ▸Preliminary GDP
• ▸GDP Price Index
• ▸Unemployment Claims
• ▸Durable Goods
• ▸Personal Income / Spending

This is the first major inflation read under the new Fed chair environment, so even though some of these are technically separated on the calendar, collectively this is effectively a high-volatility macro release window.

We also still have:

• ▸escalating US/Iran geopolitical tension
• ▸overnight risk-off reactions
• ▸oil strength
• ▸volatility compression trying to stabilize after the overnight selloff

That creates conflicting narratives:

• ▸geopolitical fear vs
• ▸ongoing bullish market structure

So today likely becomes:

reactionary and liquidity-driven rather than clean directional trend trading early.

---

VIX Analysis

Current Structure

VIX sold off aggressively yesterday and swept:

• ▸16.46 previous week low
• ▸expanded lower to 16.29

Overnight, however, VIX:

• ▸gapped higher
• ▸reclaimed portions of the weekly structure
• ▸stabilized around the weekly/monthly opening areas

That tells us:

volatility is attempting to base after extreme suppression.

---

Key VIX Levels

Upside

• ▸16.76 → NDOOG High / Daily Open
• ▸16.92 → Weekly Open / NWOG High
• ▸16.99 → Previous NWOG Low
• ▸17.01 → Monthly Open
• ▸17.18 → NWOG Mid
• ▸17.23 → Weekly High
• ▸17.39 → Previous Day High

Downside

• ▸16.66 → Overnight Low
• ▸16.52 → NDOOG Mid
• ▸16.29 → NDOOG Low / Weekly Low
• ▸16.18 → Previous Week Low
• ▸16.02 → Previous Week Low
• ▸15.74 / 15.30 / 14.85 → larger downside liquidity

---

VIX Read

This is important:

VIX is no longer in freefall.

It is now:

• ▸compressing
• ▸overlapping NWOG + NDOOG
• ▸sitting around monthly/weekly opening prices

That usually signals:

potential expansion setup later in session.

Meaning:

• ▸if VIX expands above 16.92 → 17.01 then indices likely continue downside rotation.

If VIX loses 16.52 → 16.29 again:

risk-on continuation may resume.

---

MES Analysis

Higher Timeframe Context

MES made:

• ▸new ATH yesterday at 7570.50
• ▸then immediately sold off aggressively overnight

The important thing:

we finally traded back into the New Week Opening Gap.

That matters because the market had avoided retracing into it previously.

Now that the gap has partially filled:

• ▸balance is returning
• ▸price is back inside weekly equilibrium

---

Key MES Levels

Upside

• ▸7535.75 → London swing high
• ▸7551.25 → bearish OB
• ▸7551.75 → swing high
• ▸7554.75 → Daily Open
• ▸7558.00 → Daily High
• ▸7570.50 → ATH

Current Area

• ▸7520s currently trading

Downside

• ▸7518.50 → NWOG High / Weekly Open
• ▸7510.00 → Upper Quadrant
• ▸7505.75 → Overnight Low / Weekly Low
• ▸7501.50 → NWOG Mid
• ▸7492.75 → Lower Quadrant
• ▸7484.25 → NWOG Low

Major Bullish Support Below

Order Block:

• ▸7474.50 high
• ▸7461.25 mid
• ▸7447.25 low

Daily Bullish FVG:

• ▸7466.50 high
• ▸7462.25 mid
• ▸7458.00 low

---

MES Read

The overnight selloff already delivered:

• ▸liquidity sweep
• ▸retracement into weekly gap
• ▸partial mean reversion

So now the question becomes:

was overnight the move? or was overnight only the setup for continuation lower after news?

Right now:

• ▸no clean swing low exists
• ▸no strong reversal confirmation exists
• ▸no confirmed continuation structure exists either

Meaning:

wait for confirmation after 8:30.

---

MNQ Analysis

MNQ also made:

• ▸fresh ATH at 30380.00 yesterday before sharply selling off overnight.

Unlike MES: MNQ still has NOT fully traded into its NWOG.

That creates an imbalance:

NQ still has unfinished downside liquidity below.

---

Key MNQ Levels

Upside

• ▸29998.75 → overnight swing high
• ▸30090.00 → PM swing high
• ▸30114.00 → Daily Open
• ▸30137.50 → Daily High

1H Bearish FVG

• ▸30243.00 high
• ▸30171.25 mid
• ▸30099.25 low

(Current price trading below/inside this structure)

Current Price

• ▸~29880s

Downside

• ▸29763.25 → Overnight Low
• ▸29743.00 → Weekly Low

NWOG

• ▸29675.75 → NWOG High / Weekly Open
• ▸29597.50 → Mid
• ▸29520.00 → Low

Major Support Below

Bullish OB:

• ▸29497.00

Daily Bullish FVG:

• ▸29437.50 high
• ▸29417.25 mid
• ▸29397.00 low

---

MNQ Read

NQ remains structurally stronger than ES.

But:

• ▸overnight weakness
• ▸geopolitical risk
• ▸inability to reclaim daily opening price all matter here.

Most important:

MNQ still has unfinished liquidity below at the weekly gap.

That means:

• ▸downside continuation remains possible
• ▸especially if 8:30 data comes in hot/risk-off.

---

Intraday Scenarios

Bullish Scenario

If:

• ▸VIX rejects 16.92 / 17.01
• ▸MES reclaims 7535+
• ▸MNQ reclaims 30000 / 30090
• ▸market absorbs overnight selloff

Then:

• ▸squeeze back toward ATHs possible
• ▸especially with weak inflation prints.

---

Bearish Scenario

If:

• ▸VIX expands above 17.01
• ▸MES loses 7505 → 7501
• ▸MNQ loses 29743

Then:

• ▸continuation into NWOG fills likely
• ▸especially on NQ.

Targets become:

• ▸MES → 7492 → 7484
• ▸MNQ → 29675 → 29597 → 29520

---

Trading Conditions Today

Today does NOT look like:

clean early trend continuation.

Today looks more like:

• ▸macro reaction
• ▸headline sensitivity
• ▸liquidity sweeps
• ▸reversals
• ▸post-news repricing

Meaning:

patience matters more than prediction today.

---

Main Focus Today

Things I’m Watching

• ▸VIX response around 16.92 / 17.01
• ▸Whether MES holds inside NWOG
• ▸Whether MNQ finally trades into NWOG
• ▸Reaction to 8:30 macro cluster
• ▸Whether overnight lows become accumulation or continuation

---

Overall Bias

Short-Term

Neutral → reactive until post-news confirmation.

Slight Bearish Lean

ONLY because:

• ▸overnight selloff already occurred
• ▸geopolitical tension remains elevated
• ▸NQ still has unfinished downside imbalance below.

But structurally:

higher timeframe trend is still bullish until key supports fail.