2026-07-13

MES1!

PMP – Monday, July 13, 2026

This is another noticeable improvement. I think you've crossed an important threshold with your PMPs.

A few weeks ago your PMPs were primarily:

"Here's where price can go."

Now they're becoming:

"Here's why institutions may want price to go there."

That subtle shift is exactly how professional traders think.

For Day Traders Versus, I think this is the format I'd begin standardizing.

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CNBC Headlines

Stock futures slide as chipmakers fall; SK Hynix sinks 8%: Live updates

Markets begin the week under pressure after semiconductor weakness weighed on global equities overnight. Traders are also monitoring renewed geopolitical developments in the Middle East while preparing for one of the busiest economic weeks of the summer.

U.S. and Iran exchange strikes as Strait of Hormuz standoff escalates

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This Week's Theme

This week combines major inflation data, Fed testimony, and the unofficial start of earnings season.

Markets will need to absorb:

• ▸CPI
• ▸PPI
• ▸Retail Sales
• ▸Powell testimony
• ▸Large financial earnings
• ▸Semiconductor earnings
• ▸Continued geopolitical headlines

Expect significantly more volatility than last week.

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Major Earnings This Week

Tuesday

Financials

• ▸Citigroup
• ▸JPMorgan Chase
• ▸Bank of America
• ▸Goldman Sachs
• ▸Wells Fargo
• ▸Fastenal

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Wednesday

• ▸BlackRock
• ▸Johnson & Johnson
• ▸Morgan Stanley
• ▸Progressive
• ▸PNC
• ▸Cintas

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Thursday

Major Market Movers

• ▸Netflix
• ▸Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)
• ▸UnitedHealth
• ▸Abbott
• ▸GE Aerospace
• ▸U.S. Bancorp

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Friday

• ▸Regions Financial
• ▸Truist
• ▸Fifth Third
• ▸Travelers

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Economic Calendar

Monday

• ▸Bowman Speaks
• ▸Waller Speaks
• ▸Federal Budget Balance

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Tuesday ⭐⭐⭐

• ▸Core CPI m/m
• ▸Core CPI y/y
• ▸CPI m/m
• ▸CPI y/y
• ▸Fed Chair Waller Testimony
• ▸ADP Weekly Employment
• ▸TIC Long-Term Purchases

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Wednesday ⭐⭐⭐

• ▸Core PPI
• ▸PPI
• ▸Empire Manufacturing
• ▸Fed Chair Waller Testimony
• ▸Crude Oil Inventories
• ▸Beige Book

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Thursday ⭐⭐

• ▸Retail Sales
• ▸Core Retail Sales
• ▸Philly Fed
• ▸Unemployment Claims

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Friday

• ▸Housing Starts
• ▸Building Permits
• ▸Industrial Production
• ▸Consumer Sentiment
• ▸Inflation Expectations

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Weekly Narrative

Last week concluded with buyers successfully defending higher-timeframe demand and finishing near weekly highs.

Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions increased again as U.S.–Iran developments resurfaced while semiconductor weakness pressured global equity futures.

This creates an important question for the week:

Does the market accept last week's higher prices, or was Friday's strength simply a short-covering rally before another leg lower?

Acceptance will likely determine whether we continue toward new all-time highs or rotate back into higher-timeframe demand.

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VIX

Current Price

~16.30

VIX opened the week with an upside gap after finishing last week near yearly support.

The gap itself becomes an important reference for institutional acceptance.

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Bullish VIX (Bearish Equities)

Acceptance above

• ▸

  Daily High (16.47)

• ▸

  1H Bearish Order Block

  • ▸16.58
  • ▸16.84
  • ▸17.09
• ▸

  Monthly Open (17.11)

• ▸

  Previous Day High (17.27)

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Bearish VIX (Bullish Equities)

Failure below

• ▸Daily Low (16.12)
• ▸Weekly Opening Gap Midpoint (15.68)
• ▸Gap Fill (15.03)
• ▸Previous Week Low (14.96)
• ▸Yearly Open (14.85)

Additional liquidity remains beneath yearly support around 14.75 and 14.45.

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MNQ

Current Price

~29,780

NASDAQ opened with a downside gap before reclaiming overnight lows.

Notably, NQ swept Thursday and Friday's overnight liquidity while MES left equivalent lows intact, creating SMT divergence.

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Bullish Structure

Acceptance above

• ▸Weekly Opening Gap
• ▸Previous Week High (30,076.75)
• ▸Weekly High (30,094.00)
• ▸Previous Day High (30,319.75)
• ▸Monthly Open (30,502.50)

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Bearish Structure

Failure below

• ▸Daily Low (29,546.50)
• ▸Previous Day Low (29,395.00)
• ▸1H Bullish Order Block (29,365.75)
• ▸Swing Low (29,034.00)

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MES

Current Price

~7,599

MES also opened with a downside gap while holding stronger than MNQ overnight.

The SMT divergence created overnight remains one of the more important observations heading into today's session.

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Bullish Structure

Acceptance above

• ▸Daily Open (7,607.25)
• ▸Daily High (7,615.50)
• ▸Weekly Opening Gap
• ▸Previous Week High (7,628.75)
• ▸Previous Day High (7,636.50)
• ▸All-Time High (7,648.75)

Extension targets

• ▸7,650
• ▸7,690

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Bearish Structure

Failure below

• ▸Daily Low (7,566.25)
• ▸Previous Day Low (7,552.25)
• ▸Monthly Open (7,543.50)
• ▸1H Bullish Order Block (7,553.50)

Major liquidity cluster

• ▸7,529.50
• ▸7,526.50
• ▸7,516.25
• ▸7,508.25

Additional support

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap around 7,515

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Narrative Alignment

The biggest question this week isn't simply whether markets move higher or lower.

The question is:

Will institutions accept last week's higher prices?

That theme shows up across all three markets.

• ▸VIX is attempting to hold above a new weekly gap.
• ▸MES is holding above major higher-timeframe demand.
• ▸MNQ has already swept more liquidity than MES, creating SMT divergence.

Today's session should provide the first clues about whether last week's rally continues or begins rotating back into discount pricing ahead of CPI.

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Trader's Objective

This is the section I'd officially add going forward.

Objective

• ▸Protect last week's gains.
• ▸Respect the increased volatility created by CPI week.
• ▸Prioritize A+ setups only.
• ▸Let acceptance or rejection around weekly opening gaps determine directional bias.
• ▸Stay patient ahead of Tuesday's inflation data.

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Daily Bias

Neutral with a Slight Bullish Lean

The higher-timeframe trend remains constructive, but the combination of geopolitical headlines, earnings season, and a heavy macro calendar increases the probability of two-sided price action.

Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX fails back into its weekly opening gap.
• ▸MES reclaims the Daily Open and begins accepting above the Weekly Opening Gap.
• ▸MNQ clears the previous week's highs and targets the Monthly Open.

Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX accepts above the 1H Bearish Order Block and Monthly Open.
• ▸MES loses the overnight low and rotates back toward the Monthly Open and higher-timeframe demand.
• ▸MNQ loses the 1H Bullish Order Block, opening the path toward 29,034.

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Overall Feedback

I think you've found the structure that's going to define your PMPs.

What stood out most wasn't the levels—it was this recurring question in your narration:

"Do we accept price higher?"

You repeated that idea across VIX, MES, and MNQ. That's institutional thinking. Markets don't move because they reach a level; they move because participants either accept or reject prices at those levels.

There's one enhancement I'd recommend for every Monday PMP going forward. Add a short section immediately after the headlines titled "This Week's Market Drivers." In two or three bullets, summarize the themes that are likely to dominate the week—for example: "Inflation Week," "Large Bank Earnings Begin," and "Geopolitical Risk." It gives your mentees a mental framework before they even look at the charts.

One last observation: your PMPs have become noticeably calmer. A month or two ago, your language often implied you were searching for a trade. This week, the tone consistently reflected waiting for confirmation and protecting capital. That shift is evident in both your market analysis and your comments about rebuilding your accounts. It's the kind of progression that tends to improve decision-making over time.