2026-08-10

MES1!

Pre-Market Playbook — Monday, August 10, 2026

Market Environment

We’re starting the week in a relatively muted environment. MES and MNQ are both trading near the upper end of their recent ranges, but neither is showing the type of clean expansion that makes me want to force participation early Monday.

The market also has reasons to wait. The major scheduled catalysts are concentrated in the middle of the week, particularly CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday. At the same time, negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain an important headline risk. Any material development there could override the otherwise quiet Monday calendar.

So the approach today is straightforward: let price move toward liquidity first. I don’t want to manufacture a directional bias while the market is sitting between meaningful levels.

Economic Calendar

There are no red-folder releases Monday. Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations are tentative, with FOMC member Hammack scheduled to speak at 3:00 p.m.

The more important events come later:

• ▸Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. — CPI: Core CPI m/m, Core CPI y/y, CPI m/m and CPI y/y.
• ▸Thursday, 8:30 a.m. — PPI: Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m, alongside Unemployment Claims.
• ▸Friday, 8:30 a.m. — Retail Sales: Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m. At 10:00 a.m., Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations are scheduled.

That calendar gives the market a legitimate reason to consolidate early in the week before volatility potentially expands Wednesday and Thursday.

Headlines & Earnings

The primary market headline is that S&P 500 futures are little changed as traders monitor the Strait of Hormuz negotiations and look ahead to inflation data.

The Hormuz situation remains unresolved. Iran and the U.S. continue discussions, while the possibility of fees for maritime services is also part of the developing story. This remains the biggest unscheduled catalyst on my radar.

The earnings calendar isn't particularly market-moving this week. Monday includes Berkshire Hathaway, Monday.com, Hims & Hers and GoPro. Super Micro reports Tuesday after the close, while Cisco is one of the more notable Wednesday reports. Nothing on the earnings slate currently changes my broader index framework.

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VIX

Current area: ~15.46

VIX opened the new week with a gap higher, which is notable because we didn't see an equivalent gap response from the indices.

The New Week Opening Gap is:

15.40 — High 15.15 — Midpoint 14.90 — Low

The NWOG high at 15.40 also aligns with the daily and weekly opening area. Today's high is approximately 15.49.

VIX downside scenario

If the indices are going to continue higher, I would prefer to see VIX begin filling this opening gap.

The progression I'm watching is:

15.40 → ~15.28 → 15.15 → ~15.03 → 14.90

Below 14.90 sits the yearly opening price around 14.85.

That would fit the 0→1 downside move I'm currently anticipating on VIX and would provide better confirmation for continued index strength.

VIX upside scenario

If VIX instead takes 15.49, the next major area is the 1H bearish FVG:

15.59 — FVG Low 15.63 — Swing High 15.78 — FVG Midpoint 15.96 — FVG High 16.03 — Monthly Open

Above there, I'm watching the larger order-block area, with approximately 16.46 as an important objective.

A sustained VIX expansion through those levels would make me considerably more cautious about chasing index longs.

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MNQ

Current area: ~29,865

MNQ opened the week without a meaningful opening gap and is currently consolidating after pushing higher overnight.

The weekly opening price is approximately 29,851.50.

Price has already taken previous-day buy-side liquidity and traded into the 1H order-block area before pulling back.

MNQ upside scenario

First, I want to see price reclaim the immediate range and take today's high around:

29,985

From there:

30,073.25 — Previous Week High

Above that, we begin trading into the cluster of higher previous-week liquidity shown on the chart.

This is particularly interesting because MNQ has not yet made a new all-time high, while MES and MYM already have. That leaves the possibility of MNQ eventually playing catch-up, although I'm not requiring that to happen today.

MNQ downside scenario

Today's low is approximately:

29,788

If price takes that, I'm watching the one-hour swing liquidity below:

29,669 → 29,564.25

That lower region would complete much more of the downside move I'm interested in and could potentially create the conditions for a subsequent 1→2 retracement.

Until one side of the current range is properly attacked, there's not much reason for me to force an MNQ position.

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MES

Current area: ~7,782

MES is presenting essentially the same problem as MNQ: we're near highs, but we're still trading inside a relatively small Monday range.

The weekly/daily opening area is around 7,780 on the chart.

MES upside scenario

Price has already taken previous-day highs and traded into the one-hour order-block area.

Today's high is approximately:

7,796.50

If that gets taken, I'm watching the continuation through the order block and ultimately:

7,820.25 — All-Time High

Once 7,820.25 is taken, the next natural quarter-point objectives become approximately:

7,825 → 7,850

So the bullish sequence is essentially:

Take today's high → attack ATH → evaluate continuation above ATH.

MES downside scenario

If price trades back below the opening/range structure, I'm watching:

~7,780 opening area → 7,763.50 daily low → 7,756 → 7,743.25

That would provide a much cleaner 0→1 downside leg than trying to sell the market while it's simply sitting in the middle of Monday's developing range.

From that lower liquidity, I'll then evaluate whether we get the 1→2 recovery rather than automatically assuming continued downside.

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Monday Game Plan

This isn't a day where I need to walk into the session committed to being bullish or bearish.

Bullish case: VIX starts filling its NWOG toward 15.15 / 15.03 / 14.90, while MES and MNQ hold their lower range structure and begin taking their respective daily highs. That opens the door for MES to challenge 7,820.25 ATH and MNQ to work toward 30,073.25 and the higher liquidity cluster.

Bearish case: VIX holds the gap and expands through 15.49 → 15.59 → 15.78, while MES and MNQ lose their opening structures and begin attacking sell-side liquidity. That puts 7,763.50 → 7,756 → 7,743.25 in play on MES and 29,788 → 29,669 → 29,564.25 on MNQ.

The bigger point is that I don't need to predict which scenario happens.

Monday has no major scheduled economic release, CPI and PPI are sitting later in the week, the indices are ranging near significant highs, and the Strait of Hormuz negotiations remain capable of producing sudden headline-driven movement.

So for now:

Wait for liquidity → identify the state-of-delivery shift → allow the 0→1 move to develop → look for the 1→2 retracement → then decide whether there's actually a trade.

If neither side gives me that sequence, sitting on my hands is completely acceptable.