MES1! No Trade — 2026-09-19

The draw on VIX seems to be lower to head through the PWL and potentially the PYLs. This means Indices higher regardless of how I feel about what price should or shouldn't be doing right now. DXY may continue to reject the MH we put in on Friday inside a D-FVG. Since rejecting it we left behind a D+FVG as well, we may get a 0-1 move into the D+FVG and we need to see if there is 1-2 reversal or a 2-3 failure inside to go lower in the D+FVG(L) level. For Gold we closed near the PWH and it looks as though we have already made our 0-1 to the down side, our 1-2 retracement, and now we are at the point where this move back up becomes a continuation to the upside for a 0-1 bullish move to begin or was this a continuation of the bearish move's 1-2 and an overly extended 2-3 high failure.

DTVS Weekly Outlook — September 21–25, 2026

Weekly Overview

Going into this week, there is one idea I want to keep front and center:

I have to trade what price is actually doing, not what I think price should be doing.

There isn't much on the economic calendar that I'm treating as a major scheduled catalyst this week. That puts even more weight on the technical delivery we're seeing across VIX, DXY, Gold, MNQ and MES.

And right now, VIX is giving me the clearest message.

The draw on VIX still appears to be lower through the PWL and potentially toward the PYL. If volatility continues delivering lower, then I have to remain open to higher prices on the indices, regardless of how extended I may think those markets are.

I'm not going to create a bearish thesis simply because I think, "Man, this thing has gone too far."

Price doesn't care.

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VIX — Lower Volatility Still Supports Higher Indices

VIX remains bearish across the timeframes I'm watching, and price closed the week at 14.81, already trading through the 15.05 NWOG(M) and sitting between the internal 14.79 level and 14.53 NWOG(L).

The larger NWOG structure is:

• ▸15.56 — NWOG(H)
• ▸15.05 — NWOG(M)
• ▸14.53 — NWOG(L)

Above that sits the NDOG:

• ▸17.71 — NDOG(H)
• ▸16.87 — NDOG(M)
• ▸16.03 — NDOG(L)

But that's not where price is currently drawing.

The immediate question is whether VIX continues its 0→1 delivery lower.

If it does, I'm looking for price to continue through 14.79, attack 14.53 NWOG(L) and then potentially continue toward the ML and ultimately the PYL.

What would change that?

I need to see an actual reversal sequence.

If VIX trades lower, creates the 0→1 low and then produces a legitimate 1→2 reversal, we can start considering the possibility of volatility expanding.

But even then, I want to see whether that reversal actually develops into a successful 2→3 or simply fails and resumes the move lower.

Until VIX proves otherwise:

VIX lower = indices higher.

That is the correlation I have to respect this week.

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DXY — The D+FVG Becomes the Decision Point

Dollar is more interesting because we now have opposing PD arrays working against each other.

Friday's MH at 100.502 was created inside the bearish weekly FVG.

The corrected W-FVG is:

• ▸100.650 — W-FVG(H)
• ▸100.354 — W-FVG(M)
• ▸100.058 — W-FVG(L)

Above that, we still have the weekly bearish order-block levels at:

• ▸100.806 — W-OB(L)
• ▸101.222 — W-OB(M)

DXY rejected after putting in that 100.502 MH, and that rejection left behind another important piece of structure: the bullish daily FVG underneath price.

D+FVG

• ▸100.022 — D+FVG(H)
• ▸99.817 — D+FVG(M)
• ▸99.611 — D+FVG(L)

This is where I'm really interested.

My initial expectation is that the rejection from the MH can continue and give us the 0→1 move lower into the D+FVG.

But getting there isn't enough.

The question becomes: what happens inside the D+FVG?

If the D+FVG is respected, I want to see the bearish 0→1 complete and price create a legitimate 1→2 reversal higher.

That would tell me buyers are accepting price inside the bullish daily array.

However, if we attempt that reversal and get a 2→3 failure inside the D+FVG, particularly as price works toward 99.611 D+FVG(L), that's a completely different message.

Now the bullish daily array isn't supporting price.

A failure through 99.611 opens the door for DXY to continue delivering lower toward the liquidity underneath it.

So I'm not simply labeling Dollar bearish and moving on.

100.022 → 99.817 → 99.611 is my decision range.

And that's especially important because of what it could mean for Gold.

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Gold — Bullish Continuation or an Extended Bearish Failure?

Gold may be the most interesting chart of the week because we're sitting at the exact point where we have to decide which dealing range we're actually in.

We closed at approximately 4416.4, with the PWH just above us and the recent swing high at 4439.9.

But look at how we arrived here.

We've already had what can be interpreted as:

0→1 downside → 1→2 retracement → now we're back near the highs.

And this is where I don't want to assume anything.

There are two very different ways this can resolve.

Scenario 1 — We're beginning a new bullish 0→1

If this move back up is legitimate bullish continuation, Gold should attack the PWH, deal with 4439.9, and start showing acceptance above the highs.

If that happens, the next major draw is the bearish 1H FVG above:

• ▸4482.0 — 1H-FVG(L)
• ▸4496.4 — 1H-FVG(M)
• ▸4510.8 — 1H-FVG(H)

This is where I want to be careful about terminology.

That area isn't simply "three upside targets." It's a bearish 1H FVG that a bullish Gold delivery would be trading into.

If Gold takes the PWH, creates displacement and leaves behind another bullish FVG, then I can use the retracement into that newly created array to evaluate the continuation.

That would confirm that the previous bearish sequence is over and we're establishing a new bullish 0→1.

Scenario 2 — This is still the bearish sequence

This is the alternative we cannot overlook.

What if the move we're currently calling a rally is actually the 1→2 retracement of the original bearish move, and price has simply extended much farther than we normally expect?

Then this push toward the PWH could become an overextended 2→3 high failure.

That's why I don't want to blindly buy Gold because we're approaching the highs.

If price attacks the PWH but cannot accept above it, and we start seeing bearish displacement, then I'm looking back underneath us.

The NWOG is:

• ▸4389.8 — NWOG(H)
• ▸4382.2 — NWOG(M)
• ▸4374.5 — NWOG(L)

There's also the previous swing low at 4371.2, with additional sell-side liquidity underneath.

That gives us a very clean area to determine whether Gold is simply retracing or actually changing delivery.

And DXY can help answer that question.

DXY failing through its D+FVG + Gold accepting above PWH gives me much stronger evidence for bullish Gold continuation.

DXY respecting its D+FVG and beginning a 1→2 reversal + Gold failing around PWH strengthens the bearish Gold scenario.

I'm not front-running either one.

I want the markets to show me.

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MNQ — Higher Until VIX Says Otherwise

Nasdaq is exactly where the phrase "trade what price is doing" becomes important.

I can look at this chart and have all kinds of opinions about whether it should continue higher.

None of those opinions matter if VIX keeps going down and MNQ keeps delivering toward buy-side liquidity.

MNQ closed around 29,960.25.

The major FVG we're currently interacting with is the bearish Daily FVG:

• ▸29,759.00 — D-FVG(L)
• ▸29,906.25 — D-FVG(M)
• ▸30,053.25 — D-FVG(H)

We're already above the midpoint and trading toward the high.

That's important.

Bullish scenario

If VIX continues lower and MNQ continues accepting inside this bearish D-FVG, 30,053.25 D-FVG(H) becomes the immediate level I want to see dealt with.

Above that we've got:

• ▸PDH
• ▸The higher liquidity around the 30,100s
• ▸PWH around the 30,300 area

If the bullish 0→1 trades through the D-FVG(H) and takes liquidity, I'm looking for exactly what we've been studying:

Displacement → new bullish FVG → 1→2 retracement → 2→3 continuation.

I'm not shorting it just because it looks high.

Retracement scenario

If MNQ gives us the 0→1 to the downside instead, then 29,759 D-FVG(L) becomes important.

Below there, we have the larger NWOG:

• ▸29,392.75 — NWOG(H)
• ▸29,231.50 — NWOG(M)
• ▸29,070.25 — NWOG(L)

with internal marked levels at:

• ▸29,312.25
• ▸29,151.00

A retracement does not automatically make the weekly narrative bearish.

If VIX is still delivering lower, I want to see where MNQ finds support and whether bullish displacement returns.

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MES — Same Narrative, Different PD Arrays

MES is giving us a very similar setup.

Price closed around 7725.50, just underneath the 7739.25 W+FVG(H).

That distinction is important because this is a bullish Weekly FVG, not a bearish one.

The Weekly bullish FVG includes:

• ▸7739.25 — W+FVG(H)
• ▸7629.25 — W+FVG(M)
• ▸with the low extending below the visible portion relevant to the current move.

Above price, however, we're approaching a bearish Daily FVG:

• ▸7766.50 — D-FVG(L)
• ▸7781.50 — D-FVG(M)
• ▸7796.50 — D-FVG(H)

Then we have PWH, PDH and ATH liquidity sitting above.

Bullish scenario

If VIX continues its 0→1 lower, I want to remain open to MES doing the opposite.

The first job is dealing with:

7739.25 W+FVG(H).

If price gets through there and continues higher, we're entering the bearish Daily FVG at 7766.50.

Then:

7766.50 → 7781.50 → 7796.50

becomes the higher-timeframe decision range.

Again, if MES keeps accepting through bearish PD arrays while VIX is declining, I'm not going to manufacture a short.

Above that we still have the PWH, PDH and ATH as liquidity.

Bearish / retracement scenario

If we get the 0→1 lower first, 7684.25 is one of my first important areas.

Below that, we get into the larger support structure:

• ▸7660.75 — NWOG(H)
• ▸7648.00 — internal level
• ▸7635.00 — NWOG(M)
• ▸7629.25 — W+FVG(M)
• ▸7622.25 — internal level
• ▸7609.50 — NWOG(L)

That's a significant amount of structure underneath price.

So even if MES sells off first, I need to distinguish between:

a retracement into bullish structure

and

an actual bearish change in delivery.

VIX is going to help make that distinction.

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Weekly Correlation Map

This is how I'm tying everything together.

VIX ↓ + DXY ↓

This gives me the cleanest environment for:

Indices ↑ + Gold ↑

VIX ↓ + DXY ↑

Still supportive of:

Indices ↑

But I'm more cautious with Gold because Dollar strength can work against the bullish Gold scenario.

VIX ↑ + DXY ↓

Now I'm more cautious about equity longs, but Gold can still have support.

VIX ↑ + DXY ↑

This would be the biggest change from our current narrative.

Now both the equity and Gold bullish scenarios require significantly more confirmation.

The key is that VIX and DXY have different jobs in my analysis.

I'm primarily using VIX to help read MES/MNQ.

I'm primarily using DXY to help read Gold.

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Weekly Game Plan

So going into September 21–25:

VIX: The draw remains lower through the PWL and potentially toward the PYL. 14.53 NWOG(L) is an important downside level before the larger ML/PYL draw.

DXY: Friday's 100.502 MH formed inside the bearish W-FVG from 100.058 to 100.650. I'm looking for the rejection to potentially produce a 0→1 into the bullish D+FVG at 100.022 / 99.817 / 99.611. Then I want to see whether we get the 1→2 reversal or a 2→3 failure inside that bullish array.

Gold: We're near PWH after what may already have been a bearish 0→1 and 1→2. Now we determine whether this becomes a new bullish 0→1, targeting the bearish 1H-FVG at 4482.0–4510.8, or whether we're looking at an overextended bearish 2→3 high failure.

MNQ: Bullish while VIX continues lower. We're trading through the bearish Daily FVG, with 30,053.25 D-FVG(H) immediately above and larger buy-side liquidity beyond it.

MES: Same basic thesis. 7739.25 W+FVG(H) is immediately overhead, followed by the bearish D-FVG at 7766.50–7796.50 and then the larger PWH/PDH/ATH liquidity.

The theme for the week

Regardless of how I feel about what price should or shouldn't be doing right now, I have to trade what the market is actually showing me.

VIX is still pointing lower.

The indices are still pointing higher.

DXY is sitting between bearish weekly structure and bullish daily structure.

Gold is sitting at the exact point where the bearish and bullish dealing ranges need to prove themselves.

So I don't need to predict which path wins.

I need to identify the 0→1, evaluate the 1→2, and let the success or failure of the 2→3 tell me which delivery we're actually in.

Would you like the next version to read more like a concise trader’s briefing or keep this full analytical format?