2026-08-27

MES1!

Pre-Market Playbook — Thursday, August 27, 2026

Market Context

Thursday opens with a constructive equity backdrop following Nvidia earnings, but there is an important geopolitical counterweight.

Nasdaq futures are higher after Nvidia's results boosted sentiment across chip stocks. That gives MNQ a bullish overnight backdrop, and the chart reflects it: price has repriced substantially higher from Wednesday's lows and is holding above the new day opening gap.

At the same time, Hormuz remains the headline wildcard. An Iranian lawmaker said Thursday that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and would not permit vessels from the U.S., France, Britain, or other countries it considers hostile to enter the region. Separately, shipping data showed a slight increase in Hormuz traffic Wednesday, while Iran-Oman discussions over a possible framework for managing transit continue. (Newsquawk)

That combination gives us a pretty clear framework:

Nvidia = risk-on catalyst. Hormuz = headline risk / volatility catalyst.

The charts currently favor the equity side, particularly with VIX trading under 15, but I don't need to chase the overnight move.

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Economic Calendar

The principal scheduled event this morning is 8:30 AM Unemployment Claims.

Initial Jobless Claims

• ▸Forecast: 208K
• ▸Previous: 206K

Also at 8:30:

Goods Trade Balance

• ▸Forecast: -[amount redacted]
• ▸Previous: -[amount redacted]

Preliminary Wholesale Inventories m/m

• ▸Forecast: 0.2%
• ▸Previous: 0.2%

Later:

10:30 AM — Natural Gas Storage

• ▸Forecast: 19B
• ▸Previous: 16B

And today is Day 1 of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Claims isn't necessarily something I want to build the entire session around, but we're only minutes away from the release. There is no reason to front-run it.

Let the number hit.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current Price: ~14.95 Daily Open: ~14.92 Daily High: 15.06 Daily Low: 14.80

VIX is the most interesting piece of today's intermarket picture.

We gapped down, and volatility is now trading beneath 15 while MNQ and MES have repriced higher.

That supports equities for now.

But there's also a very obvious upside gap that VIX could attack if risk sentiment changes.

VIX Upside Scenario

First I want VIX to remain above:

14.92 — Daily Open

Then attack:

14.98 — NWOG High

and:

15.06 — Daily High

Above 15.06, the next important zone becomes:

15.13 — NWOG Low

Then we begin filling the larger structure:

~15.21 — Gap Fill

15.30 — NWOG 25%

and eventually:

15.52 — NWOG Midpoint

So:

14.98 → 15.06 → 15.13 → 15.21 → 15.30 → 15.52

If VIX starts clearing 15.06–15.13 while MNQ and MES lose their opening gaps, I'm going to take the equity downside much more seriously.

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VIX Downside Scenario

The first major decision area is:

14.85 — Yearly Open

Then:

14.80 — Daily Low / NWOG 75%

We also have:

14.77 — Previous Week Low

Below that, volatility opens considerably more room:

14.61 — NWOG Midpoint

Then:

14.43 — NWOG 25%

and eventually:

14.25 — NWOG Low

So:

14.85 → 14.80/14.77 → 14.61 → 14.43 → 14.25

A sustained break below 14.80–14.77 while MNQ and MES hold their NDOGs would be very supportive of continued equity expansion.

VIX Decision

Above 15.06: volatility attempting to expand.

Above 15.13: risk-off case becomes more interesting.

Below 14.85: supports equities.

Below 14.77: increasingly bullish intermarket confirmation for MNQ/MES.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current Price: ~29,576 Daily High: ~29,661 Daily Low: ~29,431

Nvidia has completely changed the short-term Nasdaq picture.

MNQ gapped higher and is currently holding above its new day opening gap.

The chart's timeframe matrix is also notably constructive, with bullish readings across the displayed timeframes. That's useful context, but I still want price confirmation rather than buying simply because the board is green.

Key Opening Structure

New Day Opening Gap

High: 29,500 Midpoint: 29,465.50 Low: 29,431

That's my primary downside decision zone.

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MNQ Bullish Scenario

The first thing I need is continued acceptance above the NDOG.

Price then needs to attack the current short-term highs around:

29,661–29,669

Above that:

~29,700 — Previous Day High area

Then:

~29,780 — Higher PDH

The major objective above is the inverted 4-hour fair value gap:

29,905.75 — iFVG Low

Then:

30,005 — iFVG Midpoint

And ultimately:

30,104 — iFVG High

So my larger bullish ladder is:

29,661 → ~29,700 → ~29,780 → 29,905.75 → 30,005 → 30,104

That 29,905.75–30,104 4H imbalance is the major upside draw if Nvidia's post-earnings momentum develops into genuine continuation.

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MNQ Bearish Scenario

I don't want to call MNQ bearish merely because it retraces an overnight gap-up.

First I want price to lose the immediate structure and trade back into:

29,500 — NDOG High

Then:

29,465.50 — NDOG Midpoint

and:

29,431 — NDOG Low

Losing the entire NDOG would materially weaken the bullish thesis.

From there, I would watch the lower intraday structure around:

~29,400

followed by the lower liquidity around:

~29,287

and potentially:

~29,136

The important distinction is simple:

A pullback into the NDOG can still be bullish.

Acceptance through and below the NDOG is something different.

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current Price: ~7,724 Daily Open / NDOG High: 7,722

MES is also holding its overnight gap, although its expansion isn't as aggressive as Nasdaq's.

That makes sense given Nvidia's disproportionate impact on technology.

MES NDOG

7,722 — High / Daily Open

7,716 — Midpoint

7,710 — Low

That's today's immediate decision structure.

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MES Bullish Scenario

I first want MES holding above:

7,722 — Daily Open / NDOG High

Then:

7,728.50 — Short-Term Upside Level

followed by:

7,734.50 — Premarket Swing High

Then:

7,741.25 — Daily High

7,746 — Previous Day High

If we continue:

7,764.75 — Previous Day High

Now we enter the major daily imbalance:

7,766.50 — Daily FVG Low

Then:

7,770.75 — Previous Day High

and:

7,781.50 — Daily FVG Midpoint

Above that, the chart shows the upper end of the daily FVG around:

7,796.50

So:

7,722 → 7,728.50 → 7,734.50 → 7,741.25 → 7,746 → 7,764.75 → 7,766.50 → 7,781.50

That gives MES a very clean staircase if expansion develops.

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MES Bearish Scenario

First:

7,716 — NDOG Midpoint

Then:

7,710 — NDOG Low

Below the opening gap:

~7,706.75 — Daily Low area

If that structure gives way, I would then look for price to rotate toward the lower weekly/opening structure.

The important point isn't predicting that deeper move beforehand.

It's seeing whether 7,710–7,716 actually fails.

As long as MES can repeatedly retrace into the NDOG and recover, sellers haven't demonstrated much.

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Intermarket Scenarios

1. Nvidia Continuation / Risk-On

This is the clean bullish setup.

VIX: loses 14.85 → 14.80/14.77

MNQ: holds 29,500 and clears 29,661

MES: holds 7,722 and clears 7,734.50 → 7,741.25

Then my attention shifts toward:

MNQ → 29,700 → 29,780 → 29,905.75

MES → 7,746 → 7,764.75 → 7,766.50

This would tell me the Nvidia repricing is being accepted, rather than merely representing overnight enthusiasm.

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2. Gap Failure / Risk-Off Rotation

The bearish setup requires more evidence because equities currently have the favorable overnight positioning.

I want:

VIX: reclaims 15.06 → 15.13

MNQ: loses 29,500 → 29,465.50 → 29,431

MES: loses 7,722 → 7,716 → 7,710

That's much more compelling.

If all three happen together, the story changes from overnight pullback to a potential failed gap-up.

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3. Hormuz Headline Shock

This deserves its own scenario today.

Hormuz traffic remains severely disrupted compared with normal levels, even though Reuters reported a modest improvement in Wednesday's vessel count. (Reuters)

The latest Iranian statement regarding vessels from countries Tehran considers hostile therefore matters because it keeps geopolitical headline risk alive. (Newsquawk)

For trading purposes, I don't need to predict the diplomatic outcome.

I need to watch the reaction.

If a new Hormuz headline hits and:

VIX immediately reclaims 15.06/15.13, MNQ loses its NDOG, and MES loses its NDOG,

then I respect the reaction.

If headlines hit and the market refuses to sell off while VIX stays beneath 15, that's information too.

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High Post

Today's setup is actually pretty clean.

Nvidia gave equities the overnight catalyst. VIX responded by gapping lower. MNQ and MES responded by gapping higher.

So buyers begin with the advantage.

But we're sitting here right before jobless claims, and there is continuing Hormuz headline risk. I don't need to turn a favorable backdrop into an automatic long.

The three structures I care about most are:

VIX: 14.80–15.13

MNQ: 29,431–29,500 NDOG

MES: 7,710–7,722 NDOG

If the indices defend their gaps while VIX breaks beneath 14.80, I'm interested in continuation.

If the indices lose their gaps while VIX reclaims 15.06–15.13, I'm interested in the failed-gap scenario.

Anything in between can chop somebody to pieces.

Today's reminder:

Nvidia created the gap. The cash session has to prove whether the market actually wants to keep it.