2025-03-19

ES1!

3/19/25 $ES We got a IFVG setup potentially playing out the D-FVG at the moment we need price to come hold the between 5725.25(H), 5714(M), 5703(L) then we can target the PDH. I don't want us to trade below the 5703 low because this may be a bearish signal but with Unemployment News there could be a breach. We also have a 4H-IFVG that will act as an additional confirmation as well (not drawn but you can't miss it).

Update as of 7:01am Price has push below the IFVG by 0.36% for a low of 5682.50. I was mostly okay with ES making a pullback but I did want us to hold the IIFVG and not trade below it. Is the setup still valid? We need to see one of the LTF -FVGs get inverted.

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YM1!

3/19/25 $YM So [broker] has switched the contract ahead of the Friday Triple Witching. If we stay bullish I'd want to use yesterday's candle as an +OB and hold the mid point of the candle and there's 4H+OB (42149) and a 1H+FVG (42300(H), 42248(M), 42197(L)) that lines up with the move down to hold. For me to be bearish we need have a negative response from the Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales tomorrow or take out a PDL.
Update as of 7:01am Price pushed through our HTF and LTF +POIs by about 0.64% but we stayed above the 4H+OB(L) 41928. Is the setup still valid? We need to see one of the LTF -FVGs get inverted.

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Gold (XAUUSD)

3/19/25 $GOLD We gapped on the open and created NDOG(L) 3041.2 3049.4(M), 3057.6(H). If we were to take a buy still then we do have a 4H+OB to consider at 3051.5 which would be the level to look for as long as we stay above 3031.4 and reached for primarily 3075. We also have a another +POI in the form of a 1H+FVG that lines up with NDOG(M) and the 4H+OB.

The GOLD 8-10pm setup triggered to the downside even though that is against my bias we did have a LTF-IFVG MM setup

Update as of 7:01am We have traded through the LTF +POIs and even rebalanced them as well to go lower. We are still hanging around the NDOG levels but DXY is pushing up for the moment. Where are we going to go on all the pairs with the Unemployment claims pending.

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DXY

3/19/25 $DXY We are still hanging out in the same price range, right above the M+FVG(H) 103.373. We did take a PDH instead of continued lower price but rejected the WOP and traded back into the Tuesday's candle body. So far we're kind of stalled out on the move so its a 50/50 call at this point. The stalling does, however, give the inverse correlated pairs room to move though. So not much has changed since yesterday in which I'll add below:

Yesterday: 3/18/25 $DXY We took out the PDL and we are trading into a M+FVG(H) 103.373 at the moment. It looks as though we go lower into the FVG and reach the FVG(T3) level 103.029 or even down to the the FVG(M) 102.645. We took liquidity from the election day low 103.373

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NQ1!

3/19/25 $NQ We got a IFVG setup potentially playing out the D-FVG at the moment we need price to come hold the between 19980.00(H), 19936.75(M), 19893.25(L), however, in this case I would permit a slight slip below the low of the IFVG to reach the halfway mark of the yesterday's candle. We also have a 4H+IFVG (not drawn but you can't miss it) potential lining up with our HTF area which is why I'm okay with the breach of the HTF IFVG. The bearish scenario would be if we were to create a IFVG MM model after news of the Unemployment Claims or we were to hold below the IFVG.

Update as of 7:01am Price has push below the IFVG by 0.8% for a low of 19734. I was mostly okay with NQ making a deeper pullback but not the rest of the indices. Is the setup still valid? We need to see one of the LTF -FVGs get inverted.