2026-05-08

MES1!

📊 May 8, 2026 – Premarket Playbook

🌍 Macro Narrative

• ▸

  No major overnight catalyst driving price

• ▸

  Market still reacting to:

  Earlier Iran / ceasefire progress narrative

• ▸

  Current condition:

  • ▸

    Indices sitting just below ATHs

  • ▸

    Price action:

    Slow grind → now ranging

---

🕒 News

8:30am — High Impact (RED FOLDER)

• ▸

  NFP

  • ▸Forecast: 65K
  • ▸Previous: 178K
• ▸

  Unemployment Rate

  • ▸Forecast: 4.3%
  • ▸Previous: 4.3%
• ▸

  Average Hourly Earnings

➡️ This is the main catalyst for the day

---

10:00am

• ▸

  Prelim Consumer Sentiment

  • ▸Forecast: 49.7
• ▸

  Prelim Inflation Expectations

---

📌 Read on News

• ▸

  Big drop in NFP expectations vs previous

• ▸

  Market will be sensitive to:

  • ▸Surprise strength → risk-off spike possible
  • ▸Weak data → continuation higher

➡️ Reality:

Wait for 8:30 — that’s the driver today

---

🟣 VIX – Market Structure

Current State

• ▸

  Gapped up into:

  • ▸WOP: 17.38
  • ▸DOP: 17.37
• ▸

  High of day:

  • ▸17.40
• ▸

  Low so far:

  • ▸17.02 (near MOP 17.01)

---

📍 Key Behavior

• ▸

  Gap up → rejected

• ▸

  Price:

  • ▸Sold off
  • ▸Now ranging

---

📍 Key Levels

Above

• ▸17.40 (HOD)
• ▸17.81 (Swing High)
• ▸18.02 (PDH)

---

Below

• ▸17.01 (MOP)
• ▸16.99 (Swing Low)

---

News Gap (Below)

• ▸16.94
• ▸16.88
• ▸16.82

---

📌 Read

• ▸

  VIX:

  • ▸Rejected higher prices
  • ▸Failed to expand
  • ▸Sitting in equilibrium

➡️ This is:

Neutral / no confirmation

---

🔵 MES – Market Structure

Current State

• ▸Current Price: ~7400
• ▸ATH: 7410.75
• ▸HOD: ~7402
• ▸DL: 7337.75

---

📍 Structure

• ▸

  Overnight:

  • ▸Pushed lower → reversed
• ▸

  Now:

  • ▸Grinding back up
  • ▸Sitting just below ATH

---

📍 Key Levels

Intraday Structure

• ▸

  Swing Low: 7367.00

• ▸

  Secondary Swing Low: 7390.50

  • ▸(aligned with VIX 17.17 high)

---

📍 Order Blocks

Bullish OBs

• ▸7365.50
• ▸7348.25

➡️ These are your:

Pullback reaction zones

---

📌 Read

• ▸

  MES:

  • ▸Still bullish
  • ▸Still trending

BUT:

• ▸

  No displacement

• ▸

  No expansion

• ▸

  Just:

  Range → slow grind → stall

---

🟡 MNQ – Confirmation

• ▸

  Same structure as ES:

  • ▸

    Pushed lower → reversed

  • ▸

    Now:

    • ▸Grinding higher
    • ▸Sitting just below ATH

---

Key Levels

• ▸ATH: 28,945
• ▸HOD: ~28,914
• ▸DOP: 28,588
• ▸Swing Lows aligned with ES

---

📌 Read

➡️ Confirms:

Same condition across indices

---

🔗 Correlation Read

VIX

• ▸Neutral / ranging

ES / NQ

• ▸Grinding higher

➡️ This is:

Weak correlation

---

🚨 Key Insight

Indices are pushing higher WITHOUT VIX confirming

This means:

• ▸Not strong trend
• ▸Not clean expansion

➡️ Instead:

Late-stage grind / potential stall

---

⚠️ Market Condition

Range near highs + NFP catalyst pending

This is NOT:

• ▸A clean trend day (yet)

This IS:

Wait for NFP → then react

---

🎯 Trade Framework

🟢 Bullish Scenario (Post-NFP Only)

Conditions

• ▸

  MES:

  • ▸

    Holds above:

    • ▸7390
  • ▸

    Breaks:

    • ▸7402 → ATH
• ▸

  VIX:

  • ▸

    Stays weak

  • ▸

    Moves toward:

    • ▸17.00 → 16.90

➡️ Then:

• ▸Continuation toward new ATHs

---

🔴 Bearish Scenario (If Rejection)

Conditions

• ▸

  MES:

  • ▸

    Fails at:

    • ▸7400–7410
  • ▸

    Breaks:

    • ▸7390 → 7367
• ▸

  VIX:

  • ▸

    Reclaims:

    • ▸17.40+
  • ▸

    Pushes toward:

    • ▸17.80+

➡️ Then:

• ▸

  Targets:

  • ▸7365
  • ▸7348

---

🎯 A+ Setup (What YOU Called Out)

Bullish Pullback Setup

NQ

• ▸OB: 28,661.50

ES

• ▸

  OB: 7357.00

• ▸

  Overlaps with:

  • ▸FVG
  • ▸15m structure

➡️ This is:

Best opportunity IF we get a sell-off

---

🚫 What You Avoid

• ▸Trading pre-NFP chop
• ▸Chasing highs
• ▸Forcing trades in range
• ▸Trading without VIX confirmation

---

🕒 Trading Plan

• ▸Trading Window: 7:00am – 12:00pm
• ▸Primary Catalyst: 8:30 NFP
• ▸Secondary: 10:00 sentiment

Rule:

If no setup by 10:30 → done for the day

---

🧠 Final Read

• ▸

  Market:

  • ▸Bullish
  • ▸Extended
  • ▸Ranging
• ▸

  VIX:

  • ▸Neutral
  • ▸Not confirming
• ▸

  News:

  • ▸Major catalyst incoming

---

🧭 Final Summary (Your Voice)

We’re sitting just below all-time highs on ES and NQ, but the move has slowed down and turned into a range.

VIX gapped up into the weekly and daily open, rejected, and is now sitting in equilibrium with no real direction.

There’s no clean setup going into premarket.

Everything right now is just chopping and holding near highs.

NFP at 8:30 is the real driver today, so I’m waiting to see how price reacts to that.

If we get a pullback into the 15-minute OBs around 7357 on ES and 28,661 on NQ, I’ll look for a potential long setup.

Otherwise, I’m not forcing anything.

If there’s no setup by 10:30, I’m done for the day.