2026-05-11

MES1!

📊 May 11, 2026 – Premarket Playbook

🌍 Macro Narrative

Headlines

Markets are relatively muted to start the week.

Current CNBC headline:

“Stock futures little changed as Trump rejects Iran offer, oil jumps.”

Additional context:

• ▸No fresh peace deal headlines overnight
• ▸No new escalation headlines either
• ▸WTI crude sitting just below [amount redacted]/barrel

➡️ Translation:

The geopolitical premium is still in the market, but there’s no fresh catalyst this morning.

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🕒 News Today

10:00am — Low Impact (Yellow Folder)

USD

• ▸Existing Home Sales

USD

• ▸Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations

➡️ No major scheduled catalyst.

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📌 Read on News

Unlike last week:

• ▸No NFP
• ▸No CPI
• ▸No geopolitical surprise

➡️ Today is:

Purely technical until proven otherwise.

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🟣 VIX – Market Structure

Current State

VIX opened with a gap up and is pushing into overhead liquidity.

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From Low to High

NWOG (This Week)

• ▸17.19 (L)
• ▸17.70 (M)
• ▸18.21 (H)

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Liquidity Swept

Overnight VIX took:

✅ PDH: 17.60 ✅ Swing High: 17.81 ✅ PDH: 18.02

Then traded into:

NDOG (May 5th)

• ▸17.95 (L)
• ▸18.12 (M)
• ▸18.29 (H)

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Current Intraday Levels

DOP / WOP

• ▸18.21

DL

• ▸18.07

DH

• ▸18.24

Current Price

• ▸~18.15

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Read

VIX:

• ▸Gapped up
• ▸Swept multiple highs
• ▸Now sitting in equilibrium

➡️ This is:

Bullish for VIX… but not expanding

Meaning:

Potential support, but no displacement yet.

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🔵 MES – Market Structure

Current State

MES gapped down on the open.

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Key Levels

Swing Low (Important Reference)

• ▸7388.50

DL

• ▸7390.50

DOP / WOP / NWOG(L)

• ▸7403.75

NWOG(M)

• ▸7412.50

DH

• ▸7420.50

NWOG(H)

• ▸7421.00

ATH (Friday)

• ▸7428.25

Current Price

• ▸~7413

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Read

MES:

• ▸Sitting directly inside this week’s opening gap
• ▸Holding near midpoint

➡️ This is:

Balanced / no delivery yet

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🟡 MNQ – Market Structure

Current State

MNQ continues leading.

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Key Levels

NWOG

• ▸29,335.50 (H)
• ▸29,315.00 (M)
• ▸29,294.50 (L)

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DOP / WOP

• ▸29,294.50

DL

• ▸29,222.25

New ATH

• ▸29,402.50

Current Price

• ▸~29,329

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Read

MNQ:

• ▸Made fresh ATH overnight
• ▸Now holding inside NWOG

➡️ Same as ES:

Holding premium pricing, no expansion

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🔗 Correlation Read

VIX

• ▸Gapped up
• ▸Swept liquidity
• ▸Holding higher

MES / MNQ

• ▸Gapped down
• ▸Holding in premium zones

➡️ Correlation is:

Technically aligned… but muted

No side has taken control yet.

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⚠️ Market Condition

Monday + Gap Opens + No Catalyst + Barcode Price Action

This is NOT:

• ▸Trend day
• ▸Expansion day
• ▸Immediate execution environment

This IS:

Wait-for-displacement

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🎯 Trade Framework

🟢 Bullish MES / MNQ Scenario (VIX must weaken)

VIX

Must lose:

• ▸18.07
• ▸18.02
• ▸17.81

Then fail back below:

• ▸17.70

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MES

Must reclaim:

• ▸7412.50
• ▸7421.00

Then target:

🎯 7428.25 ATH

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MNQ

Must reclaim:

• ▸29,335

Then target:

🎯 29,402 ATH

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➡️ Meaning:

VIX weakness = indices continuation.

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🔴 Bearish MES / MNQ Scenario (VIX must strengthen)

VIX

Must reclaim:

• ▸18.21
• ▸18.24

Then target:

🎯 18.29

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MES

Must lose:

• ▸7403.75
• ▸7390.50
• ▸7388.50

Then target lower imbalances.

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MNQ

Must lose:

• ▸29,294
• ▸29,222

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➡️ Meaning:

VIX strength = indices pullback.

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🚫 What I’m Avoiding

I’m not:

• ▸Trading inside the opening gaps
• ▸Trading barcode conditions
• ▸Chasing ATHs
• ▸Forcing Monday trades

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🕒 Trading Plan

Trading Window

• ▸7:00am – 12:00pm

Highest Probability

• ▸8:30am – 10:30am

Today’s Reality

No catalyst.

So if no displacement by 10:30:

I’m done.

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🧠 Final Read

VIX

• ▸Holding premium
• ▸Swept highs
• ▸No expansion

ES / NQ

• ▸Holding premium
• ▸Near ATHs
• ▸No expansion

News

• ▸No catalyst

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🧭 Final Summary (Your Voice)

Markets opened pretty muted.

ES, NQ, and Dow all gapped down, while VIX gapped up and swept multiple previous highs and traded into older inefficiencies.

NQ made another all-time high overnight, ES is sitting just below Friday’s all-time high, and both are trading inside this week’s opening gaps.

VIX is holding premium pricing, but there’s no real displacement.

There’s no major news catalyst today, no fresh peace deal headlines, and price has basically been barcoding all overnight.

Nothing has taken out a high or low with real conviction.

As of now…

There’s no setup.

I’m sitting on my hands until price shows real displacement or correlation gives a cleaner story.

If nothing develops by 10:30, I’m done for the day.