2026-05-14
Market Dashboard
Chart Analysis / Live Chart
Working Thesis
📊 Thursday, May 14, 2026 — Updated Premarket Playbook
🌍 Macro Narrative
Yesterday:
✅ PPI cooled ✅ Buyers defended all dips ✅ ES and NQ both printed new ATHs ✅ VIX stayed suppressed
Overnight:
✅ MES and MNQ continued grinding higher ✅ VIX attempted upside but failed ✅ Risk-on remains intact
Current positioning:
| Market | Current |
|---|---|
| VIX | 17.84 |
| MES | 7493.75 |
| MNQ | 29,573.75 |
This is:
Clean inverse correlation.
Equities pressing highs…
VIX fading.
🔴 8:30am — High Impact News
USD
| Release | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.7% |
| Retail Sales m/m | 0.5% |
| Unemployment Claims | 205K |
This will likely decide:
ATH breakout… or liquidity sweep.
🔵 MES — Market Structure
Trend:
Strongly bullish.
Current Price
7493.75
ATH
7496.25
Distance:
Only 2.5 points away
Meaning:
ATH is actively under attack.
Key Support
Daily Open
7477.25
Daily Low
7471.00
Swing Low
7466.75
1H +FVG
- ▸7465.50 (H)
- ▸7456.25 (M)
- ▸7447.00 (L)
1H Bullish OB
7441.25
MES Read
Price is:
✅ Above daily open ✅ Above overnight range ✅ Pressing ATH
That is:
Pure premium pricing.
No bearish structure yet.
🟣 VIX — Market Structure
Current:
17.84
Daily Open
17.86
Meaning:
VIX is trading BELOW daily open.
That’s bearish for VIX…
Bullish for ES/NQ.
Key Resistance Above
17.94
18.12
18.21 (NWOG High)
Support Below
17.76 (Weekly Low)
17.70 (NWOG Mid)
17.44
17.04
17.01 (MOP)
VIX Read
Right now:
Sellers are back in control.
Unless VIX reclaims:
17.94–18.12
Upside remains favored in equities.
🟡 MNQ — Market Structure
Current:
29,573.75
ATH
29,693.50
Distance:
~120 points
Very close.
Support
Daily Open
29,537
Swing Low
29,481
1H +FVG
- ▸29,442.25 (H)
- ▸29,413.13 (M)
- ▸29,384.00 (L)
Bullish OB
29,369.25
MNQ Read
Price:
✅ Above daily open ✅ Above overnight structure ✅ Holding premium
No weakness yet.
🔗 Correlation Read
Current Relationship
| VIX | MES | MNQ |
|---|---|---|
| Falling | Rising | Rising |
This is:
Exactly what we want to see.
No divergence currently.
🎯 Trade Framework
🟢 Primary Scenario — Continuation
If:
VIX stays below:
17.94
and especially:
17.86
Expect:
MES
ATH sweep:
7496.25
Then:
🎯 7500
🎯 7525
🎯 7575 quarter point
MNQ
ATH sweep:
29,693.50
Then:
🎯 29,750
🎯 29,900
🎯 30,000
🔴 Secondary Scenario — News Sweep
At 8:30…
If VIX spikes and reclaims:
17.94
then:
18.12
Look for:
Liquidity sweep first.
MES Downside Targets
🎯 7477.25
🎯 7471
🎯 7466.75
Then FVG:
🎯 7456.25
MNQ Downside Targets
🎯 29,537
🎯 29,481
🎯 29,413
🧠 My Read (Aligned With Your Model)
Right now:
This is NOT short territory.
We are:
✅ At ATH ✅ VIX below open ✅ Premium pricing ✅ Strong inverse correlation
Best trade:
Let 8:30 sweep a high or low… then trade the reclaim with VIX confirmation.
No anticipation.
No fading strength.
Either VIX confirms… or we sit on hands.
#staydiscipline #staypatient
Bias by Ticker
✅ PPI cooled ✅ Buyers defended all dips ✅ ES and NQ both printed new ATHs ✅ VIX stayed suppressed ✅ MES and MNQ continued grinding higher ✅ VIX attempted upside but failed ✅ Risk-on remains intact
✅ MES and MNQ continued grinding higher ✅ VIX attempted upside but failed ✅ Risk-on remains intact | Market | Current | | ------- | ------------- | | VIX | 17.84 | | MES | 7493.75 | | MNQ | 29,573.75 |
✅ MES and MNQ continued grinding higher ✅ VIX attempted upside but failed ✅ Risk-on remains intact | Market | Current | | ------- | ------------- | | VIX | 17.84 | | MES | 7493.75 | | MNQ | 29,573.75 |
Cory publishes the working thesis before the session, not after — this Playbook and Trade Review are part of that same documented process. No signals, no highlight reel.
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