2026-05-13

MES1!

📊 Wednesday, May 13, 2026 — Premarket Playbook

🌍 Macro Narrative

Yesterday:

✅ CPI came in hot ✅ Initial risk-off reaction ✅ ES/NQ sold off aggressively ✅ Entire selloff was bought back

Today:

🔴 8:30am — PPI

USD

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Tentative — Fed Chair Nomination Vote

Expected:

PASS

Potential volatility if headlines hit during RTH.

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🟡 10:30am — Crude Oil Inventories

Forecast:

-2.0M

Oil remains a geopolitical sensitivity but secondary to PPI.

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🔵 MES — Market Structure

Yesterday:

Price sold off aggressively into:

1H Bullish OB

7364.50

That OB held perfectly.

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Weekly Low

7363.25

Liquidity fully swept.

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From there:

✅ Full recovery ✅ Reclaimed weekly open ✅ Reclaimed NWOG ✅ Reclaimed prior day high

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Current Structure

ATH / Equal High

7454.00

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Current Price

7442.75

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Daily High

7454.00

(equal to ATH)

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Daily Open

7420.50

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Swing Low

7434.25

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Key Support Below

OB

7421.75

With small FVG sitting there.

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NWOG

• ▸7421.00 (H)
• ▸7412.50 (M)
• ▸7403.75 (L / WOP)

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MES Read

Overnight:

✅ Premium pricing ✅ Equal highs at ATH ✅ Holding above NWOG

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My read:

Bullish until NWOG fails.

But…

Equal highs at ATH = liquidity magnet.

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🟣 VIX — Market Structure

Yesterday VIX was messy.

But now structure is cleaner.

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Weekly High

19.10

(previous week high 19.08 swept)

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Current Price

17.83

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Daily High

17.99

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Daily Open

17.98

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Weekly Structure

NWOG

• ▸18.21 (H / WOP)
• ▸17.70 (M)
• ▸17.19 (L)

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Bullish OB

17.44

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Monthly Open

17.01

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Swing Low

17.04

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VIX Read

Yesterday:

✅ Swept weekly highs ✅ Reversed hard ✅ Lost NWOG premium

Today:

VIX is trading inside discount.

That supports:

Bullish ES / NQ

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🟡 MNQ — Market Structure

ATH

29,480.50

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Previous Day High

29,456.50

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Daily High

29,448.25

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Current Price

29,384.50

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NWOG

• ▸29,335.50 (H)
• ▸29,315.00 (M)
• ▸29,294.50 (L / WOP)

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Weekly Low

28,741.25

(clean liquidity sweep)

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Daily Low

29,056.25

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Daily FVG

• ▸29,222.25 (H)
• ▸29,083.75 (M)
• ▸28,945.00 (L)

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Bullish OB

29,143.00

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Daily Open

29,148.00

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MNQ Read

Yesterday:

✅ Swept deep discount ✅ Hit breaker ✅ Fully recovered

Today:

Holding premium above NWOG.

Bullish unless NWOG fails.

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🔗 Correlation Read

ES / NQ

✅ Premium pricing ✅ Equal highs ✅ Recovery complete

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VIX

✅ Trading back inside discount ✅ Near bullish OB

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This gives us:

Clean inverse correlation this morning.

Much cleaner than yesterday.

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🎯 Trade Framework

🟢 Bullish Scenario (Primary)

As long as:

VIX stays below:

18.21

and especially:

17.98

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MES holds:

7421.75

Then targets:

🎯 7454.00 ATH

🎯 Price discovery above ATH

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MNQ holds:

29,335

Then targets:

🎯 29,456

🎯 29,480 ATH

🎯 Expansion higher

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🔴 Bearish Scenario

If PPI comes in hot and VIX reclaims:

18.21

Then:

18.58

Then:

18.89

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MES loses:

7421.75

Then:

7412.50

Then:

7403.75

Targets:

🎯 NWOG fill

🎯 Lower imbalance

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MNQ loses:

29,335

Then:

29,222

Then:

29,083

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🧠 My Bias Today

I agree with your read:

VIX likely trades lower into the 17.44 OB while ES/NQ push higher.

That supports:

Buy-side continuation…

BUT…

At ATHs:

I’m not chasing highs.

I want:

✅ Pullback into NWOG ✅ VIX rejection from premium attempt ✅ Clean IFVG / OB confirmation ✅ Then take the long

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🚫 What I’m Avoiding

❌ Buying directly into ATH liquidity ❌ Trading first PPI candle ❌ Ignoring VIX again like yesterday ❌ Forcing trades in barcode conditions

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Final Read (Your Voice)

Yesterday’s selloff was completely recovered. ES bounced perfectly off the hourly order block and reclaimed all premium pricing. NQ swept deep liquidity, hit the breaker, and recovered aggressively. VIX swept weekly highs yesterday, reversed hard, and now sits inside the weekly opening gap, supporting upside in the indices.

As of now:

Bias is bullish — but only if VIX continues lower into 17.44 or below while ES/NQ hold their weekly opening gaps.

The cleanest setup:

Pullback + VIX weakness + reclaim = buy.

Otherwise…

Sit on hands and let price deliver.

#staydiscipline #staypatient