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2026-06-02

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Working Thesis

MES1!

📊 Pre-Market Playbook (PMP) – Tuesday, June 2, 2026

"Reaction Day Until Proven Otherwise"

Yesterday delivered fresh all-time highs in MES and MNQ, but overnight both markets rotated lower and retraced back toward key weekly opening levels. With no red-folder economic releases today, price is likely to be driven by positioning, liquidity, and headline risk surrounding Iran developments rather than scheduled economic catalysts.


📰 Economic Calendar

🟡 8:30 AM

FOMC Member Hammack Speaks

🟠 10:00 AM

JOLTS Job Openings

  • Forecast: 6.87M
  • Previous: 6.87M

🟡 Other Events

  • RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • Wards Vehicle Sales
  • API Crude Inventory Bulletin
  • Additional FOMC Speakers throughout the day

Market Takeaway

No red-folder events today.

JOLTS is the only scheduled release capable of creating meaningful volatility, but unless there is a major deviation from expectations, today's market likely remains driven by:

  • Liquidity objectives
  • Positioning after yesterday's ATHs
  • Iran/U.S. geopolitical headlines
  • VIX behavior

🔵 MES Analysis

Current Structure

All-Time High

7632.75

Current Price

7598.50

Daily Open

7600.75

Daily High

7612.00

Daily Low

7576.25

Weekly Low

7576.00

Price sold off overnight and tagged both the Daily Low and Weekly Low almost simultaneously before recovering.


Key Weekly Levels

Weekly Open / Monthly Open

7594.75

NWOG Midpoint

7592.50

NWOG Low

7590.50

Price is currently trading directly above these levels.

This is a major decision point.


Bullish Scenario

The overnight selloff may simply have been a liquidity raid into:

  • Weekly Low
  • Daily Low
  • Weekly Opening Gap

If buyers continue defending:

Upside Targets

  1. 7610.50 Overnight Swing High
  2. 7612.00 Daily High
  3. 7632.75 ATH
  4. 7650+
  5. 7680+

Bearish Scenario

If Weekly Open fails:

Targets

  1. 7576.00 Weekly Low
  2. 7572.75 Previous Day Low
  3. 7575.25 4H Bullish FVG High
  4. 7559.75 4H Bullish FVG Midpoint
  5. 7554.75 4H Bullish Order Block
  6. 7544.00 4H Bullish FVG Low
  7. 7533.00 1H Bullish Order Block

The highest probability draw on liquidity below current price remains:

7555–7560 Zone

where multiple bullish PDAs align.


🔵 MNQ Analysis

Current Structure

ATH

30692.00

Current Price

30559.75

Daily High

30587.75

Daily Open

30542.75

Daily Low

30317.75


Weekly Levels

Weekly Open / Monthly Open

30416.50

NWOG Midpoint

30401.75

NWOG Low

30386.75

Price has already:

✅ Filled the weekly opening gap

✅ Reclaimed weekly opening levels

✅ Recovered sharply from overnight lows


Bullish Scenario

If yesterday's momentum resumes:

Targets

  1. 30587.75 Daily High
  2. 30692.00 ATH
  3. 30750 Quarter Point
  4. 30900
  5. 31000 Psychological Level

The market continues to trend strongly and remains above all major higher timeframe support.


Bearish Scenario

If the overnight bounce fails:

Targets

  1. 30416 Weekly Open
  2. 30317 Daily Low
  3. 30291 Weekly Low
  4. 30274.50 4H Bullish FVG High
  5. 30269.75 Internal Liquidity
  6. 30266.50 Swing Low
  7. 30216.25 Previous Day Low
  8. 30193.50 4H FVG Midpoint
  9. 30112.50 4H FVG Low
  10. 30055.50 1H Bullish Order Block

The primary downside draw remains:

30275 – 30195

where multiple bullish PDAs converge.


🟣 VIX Analysis

Current Structure

Current Price

16.13

Daily Open

16.28

Daily High

16.28

Daily Low

16.10

Weekly High

16.34

Weekly Low

15.71


New Day Opening Gap

High

16.28

Midpoint

16.16

Low

16.05

VIX is currently sitting inside today's opening gap.


Bullish VIX Scenario (Bearish Equities)

Targets

  1. 16.34 Weekly High
  2. 16.52 NDOG Mid
  3. 16.85 Previous Day High

A move through 16.34 would likely support deeper retracements in MES and MNQ.


Bearish VIX Scenario (Bullish Equities)

Targets

  1. 15.88 Weekly Open
  2. 15.71 Weekly Low
  3. 15.60 NWOG Midpoint
  4. 15.50 Daily Volume Imbalance Mid
  5. 15.22 Previous Week Low

A breakdown below 15.88 would strongly support continuation toward fresh ATHs in equities.


🎯 Narrative Alignment

Current Read

MES:

  • Trading directly above Weekly Open
  • Holding Weekly Low raid
  • Still bullish until 7590 breaks

MNQ:

  • Filled NWOG
  • Reclaimed Weekly Open
  • Holding bullish market structure

VIX:

  • Sitting inside today's opening gap
  • No clear directional commitment yet

Trade Thesis

Today feels less like a trend day and more like a reaction day.

The overnight move already raided:

  • MES Weekly Low
  • MES Daily Low
  • MNQ Daily Low
  • Weekly Opening Gap levels

The question now is:

Does that overnight selloff represent accumulation before another ATH run?

or

Was yesterday's ATH the local top before a deeper retracement into the 4H bullish fair value gaps?

Without a major catalyst, the answer likely comes from:

  • How price reacts around Weekly Opens
  • Whether VIX can reclaim 16.34
  • Whether JOLTS creates unexpected volatility at 10:00 AM

Until then:

The market is sitting between liquidity pools on both sides, and patience is likely worth more than prediction today.

#staydiscipline #staypatient

Transcript reference:

Bias by Ticker

MESBearish

MES1! Yesterday delivered fresh all-time highs in MES and MNQ, but overnight both markets rotated lower and retraced back toward key weekly opening levels. With no red-folder economic releases today, price is likely to…

MNQBearish

Yesterday delivered fresh all-time highs in MES and MNQ, but overnight both markets rotated lower and retraced back toward key weekly opening levels. With no red-folder economic releases today, price is likely to be…

VIXNeutral

* Liquidity objectives * Positioning after yesterday's ATHs * Iran/U.S. geopolitical headlines * VIX behavior VIX is currently sitting inside today's opening gap.

Written by Cory

Cory publishes the working thesis before the session, not after — this Playbook and Trade Review are part of that same documented process. No signals, no highlight reel.

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