2026-06-03

MES1!

📊 Pre-Market Playbook (PMP) – Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Market Theme: "Bad News, Higher Prices"

Despite overnight geopolitical escalation and continued uncertainty surrounding Iran, markets continue to hold elevated prices and print fresh highs. That tells us institutions are still willing buyers, but the overnight session was extremely messy and liquidity-driven.

The key takeaway this morning:

MES is consolidating beneath all-time highs.

MNQ is already printing new all-time highs.

VIX remains trapped in a range and has failed to sustain upside expansion.

This creates a mixed but generally bullish backdrop heading into ADP and ISM Services PMI.

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📰 Economic Calendar

🔴 8:15 AM

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

• ▸Forecast: 118K

This is today's first major catalyst.

A significant miss could support risk assets if traders interpret it as increasing the probability of future Fed easing.

A strong beat could temporarily pressure equities.

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🟡 9:00 AM

FOMC Member Barr Speaks

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🟡 9:45 AM

Final Services PMI

• ▸Forecast: 51.0
• ▸Previous: 50.9

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🔴 10:00 AM

ISM Services PMI

• ▸Forecast: 53.7
• ▸Previous: 53.6

This is likely today's most important scheduled release.

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🟠 10:00 AM

Treasury Secretary Bessent Speaks

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🟡 10:30 AM

Crude Oil Inventories

• ▸Forecast: -2.9M

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🟡 2:00 PM

Beige Book

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🔵 MES Analysis

Current Structure

Current Price

7619.25

Daily Open

7628.25

Daily High

7628.50

Daily Low

7602.50

ATH

7632.75

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Overnight Activity

The most notable event overnight was the aggressive 19:00 candle liquidation.

Price dropped approximately:

20 points

directly into a confluence zone consisting of:

• ▸1H Bullish Order Block
• ▸1H Bullish Fair Value Gap

and immediately reversed.

That response confirms buyers remain active beneath current price.

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Key Bullish PDA

1H Bullish FVG

• ▸High: 7621.50
• ▸Midpoint: 7613.50
• ▸Low: 7605.50

1H Bullish Order Block

7606.25

Price is currently trading above this entire structure.

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Weekly Structure

Weekly Open / Monthly Open

7594.75

NWOG Mid

7592.50

NWOG Low

7590.50

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Bullish Scenario

If buyers reclaim overnight highs:

Targets

1. ▸7628.50 Daily High
2. ▸7632.75 ATH
3. ▸7650
4. ▸7675
5. ▸7690-7700

The key observation:

MNQ continues making new highs.

MES has not yet fully followed.

That divergence favors additional upside if ES catches up.

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Bearish Scenario

If today's highs reject:

Targets

1. ▸7606.25 1H OB
2. ▸7605.50 1H FVG Low
3. ▸7594.75 Weekly Open
4. ▸7587.50 Swing Low
5. ▸7576.25 Previous Day Low
6. ▸7576.00 Weekly Low

Below that:

4H Bullish FVG

• ▸High: 7575.25
• ▸Mid: 7559.75
• ▸Low: 7544.00

4H Bullish Order Block

7554.75

These remain the highest probability downside magnets if weakness develops.

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🔵 MNQ Analysis

Current Structure

Current Price

30772.50

Daily Open

30743.00

Current ATH

30794.00

MNQ continues leading the market.

Unlike MES, it has already broken into fresh all-time highs.

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Overnight Activity

MNQ experienced an approximately:

140-point liquidation

directly into:

1H Bullish Order Block

30565.25

The reaction was immediate and bullish.

That order block successfully held.

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Weekly Structure

Weekly Open / Monthly Open

30416.50

NWOG Mid

30401.75

NWOG Low

30386.75

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Bullish Scenario

If momentum continues:

Targets

1. ▸30794 ATH
2. ▸30900
3. ▸31000
4. ▸31150

Because we are in price discovery:

there are few meaningful resistance levels overhead.

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Bearish Scenario

Primary downside targets:

30565.25

1H Bullish Order Block

30542.75

4H Bullish Order Block

30423.75

Swing Low

30416.50

Weekly Open

Further downside:

30274.50

4H Bullish FVG High

30193.50

4H Bullish FVG Mid

30112.50

4H Bullish FVG Low

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🔺 Divergence Alert

One of the most important observations this morning:

MES

Showing Buy-Side Trendline Liquidity

MNQ

Showing Sell-Side Trendline Liquidity

This creates opposing liquidity objectives.

That often produces:

• ▸Choppy price action
• ▸False breakouts
• ▸Delayed directional commitment

Be careful forcing trades before news.

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🟣 VIX Analysis

Current Price

16.07

Daily High

16.15

Daily Low

16.01

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Current Structure

VIX remains trapped inside a defined range.

No meaningful expansion has occurred despite overnight geopolitical headlines.

That is noteworthy.

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Bearish VIX Scenario (Bullish Equities)

Targets:

1. ▸15.88 Weekly Open
2. ▸15.71 Weekly Low
3. ▸15.60 NWOG Mid
4. ▸15.50 Daily Volume Imbalance Mid
5. ▸15.32 NWOG Low
6. ▸15.22 Previous Week Low
7. ▸15.14 D-VIB Low
8. ▸14.85 Yearly Open

This remains the most supportive scenario for additional equity upside.

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Bullish VIX Scenario (Bearish Equities)

Targets:

1. ▸16.29 Previous Day High
2. ▸16.34 Weekly High
3. ▸16.52 NDOG Mid
4. ▸16.76 NDOG High
5. ▸16.85 Previous Day High

A sustained move above 16.34 would likely coincide with a retracement in MES and MNQ.

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🎯 Narrative Alignment

Bullish Factors

✅ MNQ making new ATHs

✅ MES holding 1H bullish FVG and OB

✅ VIX unable to sustain upside

✅ Weekly opens continue acting as support

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Bearish Factors

⚠️ Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated

⚠️ Overnight price action was sloppy and liquidity-driven

⚠️ ADP and ISM still ahead

⚠️ MES has not yet confirmed the MNQ breakout

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Trade Thesis

Today's market feels similar to yesterday:

Price is still respecting bullish higher-timeframe structure, but the overnight session was ugly enough that chasing moves before data is dangerous.

The strongest signal currently comes from:

MNQ

which continues to lead and print fresh all-time highs.

As long as:

• ▸MNQ remains above 30565
• ▸MES remains above 7605
• ▸VIX remains below 16.34

the path of least resistance remains higher.

However, with ADP at 8:15 and ISM Services PMI at 10:00, patience is likely the highest-probability trade until the market reveals its hand.

Wait for confirmation. Let the news create the liquidity. Then execute the A+ setup.

#staydiscipline

#staypatient

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