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2026-06-09

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Working Thesis

MNQ1!

📊 Pre-Market Playbook (PMP) – Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Theme of the Day

This is shaping up to be a positioning day ahead of CPI and PPI later this week.

Unlike Friday's NFP event, today's calendar is light:

🟡 ADP Weekly Employment Change 🟡 Trade Balance 🟡 Existing Home Sales 🟡 Wholesale Inventories

No major red-folder releases.

The bigger story remains:

Geopolitics + Inflation Waiting Room

Markets continue reacting to headlines surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's comments that a deal could potentially be reached within days. Oil has pulled back as traders price in a possible easing of tensions, although uncertainty remains elevated. (Reuters)

My interpretation:

The market appears to be waiting for CPI tomorrow before committing to a larger directional move.


🟣 VIX Outlook

Current Price

18.16

Daily Open

18.19

Weekly Low

17.94

Key Observation

VIX has completely retraced from last week's panic spike.

Instead of expanding higher, volatility continues leaking lower.

That is generally supportive of equities.


Bullish VIX Scenario (Bearish Equities)

If buyers regain control:

Targets

  1. 18.19 Daily Open
  2. 18.35 Daily High
  3. 18.56 NDOG Mid
  4. 18.92 NDOG High
  5. 19.22 Swing High
  6. 19.81 1H Order Block
  7. 20.29 Weekly Open
  8. 20.90 NWOG Mid

Bearish VIX Scenario (Bullish Equities)

Targets

  1. 17.94 Weekly Low
  2. 17.88 Swing Low
  3. 17.41 1H Bullish FVG Mid
  4. 16.69 1H Bullish FVG Low
  5. 15.88 Monthly Open

Narrative

A break below 17.88 would likely fuel another leg higher in ES and NQ.


🔵 MNQ Analysis

Current Price

29,677

Weekly High

29,743

Weekly Open

28,843

Context

NQ has recovered aggressively from Friday's selloff.

Price has now reclaimed:

✅ Daily bullish FVG ✅ Previous week's opening gap ✅ Multiple London session lows

The question now becomes:

Can buyers continue through weekly highs before CPI?


Bullish Scenario

Targets

  1. Daily High 29,727
  2. Weekly High 29,743
  3. Order Block 29,774
  4. 30,112 4H FVG Low
  5. 30,193 4H FVG Mid
  6. 30,260 Swing High
  7. 30,274 FVG High

This remains my preferred path unless VIX suddenly catches a bid.


Bearish Scenario

Targets

  1. Premarket Low 29,615
  2. London Low 29,566
  3. Daily Low 29,302
  4. Daily FVG High 29,222
  5. Daily FVG Mid 29,083
  6. Daily FVG Low 28,945
  7. Weekly Open 28,843
  8. Weekly Low 28,821

🔵 MES Analysis

Current Price

7,443

Weekly Open

7,368

Weekly High

7,476

Daily High

7,456

ES mirrors NQ almost perfectly.

The important difference:

ES has already reclaimed several major liquidity pools and is sitting much closer to weekly highs than weekly lows.


Bullish Scenario

Targets

  1. Daily High 7,456
  2. 1H Inverted FVG Low 7,458
  3. 1H Inverted FVG Mid 7,462
  4. 1H Inverted FVG High 7,466
  5. Weekly High 7,476
  6. NWOG Low 7,484
  7. NWOG Mid 7,501
  8. NWOG High 7,518

If buyers clear 7,476, there is very little resistance before the May gap.


Bearish Scenario

Targets

  1. Premarket Low 7,434
  2. London Low 7,428
  3. Daily Open 7,412
  4. NWOG High 7,421
  5. NWOG Mid 7,412
  6. NWOG Low 7,403
  7. Daily Low 7,390
  8. Swing Lows 7,386 / 7,384

Below there:

  • Weekly Open 7,368
  • Weekly Low 7,355
  • Daily Bullish FVG 7,345

🎯 Intermarket Narrative

What I Like

VIX

Still unable to sustain strength.

NQ

Recovered the majority of Friday's collapse.

ES

Holding above weekly open.

News Calendar

No major economic catalyst until CPI.


What Makes Me Cautious

Overnight Extension

You mentioned this yourself in the transcript:

We have already achieved many of the upside targets overnight.

That matters.

When markets run aggressively overnight into a low-news session, they often spend New York hours:

  • Consolidating
  • Retracing
  • Waiting for the next catalyst

Transcript reference:


What I'll Be Watching

Bullish Confirmation

VIX

  • Stays below 18.35

MNQ

  • Holds above 29,615

MES

  • Holds above 7,428

If those conditions remain true:

I would expect continuation attempts toward weekly highs.


Bearish Confirmation

VIX

  • Reclaims 18.56 and 18.92

MNQ

  • Loses 29,615 then 29,566

MES

  • Loses 7,434 then 7,428

If that occurs:

The market likely spends today retracing part of Monday's overnight recovery before CPI.


Day Traders Versus Outlook

Market Bias: Slightly Bullish

Confidence: 6.5/10

Why not higher?

  • Overnight move already extended
  • CPI tomorrow
  • PPI later this week
  • Geopolitical headlines remain unpredictable

This feels more like a:

"React to liquidity and wait for confirmation" day

rather than a day to aggressively front-run a directional move.

#staydiscipline

#staypatient

Transcript reference:

Bias by Ticker

MNQNeutral

MNQ1! MNQ

VIXNeutral

VIX has completely retraced from last week's panic spike. This remains my preferred path unless VIX suddenly catches a bid.

MESNeutral

MES MES

Written by Cory

Cory publishes the working thesis before the session, not after — this Playbook and Trade Review are part of that same documented process. No signals, no highlight reel.

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