2026-06-09
Market Context
Market Dashboard
Chart Analysis / Live Chart
Working Thesis
MNQ1!
📊 Pre-Market Playbook (PMP) – Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Theme of the Day
This is shaping up to be a positioning day ahead of CPI and PPI later this week.
Unlike Friday's NFP event, today's calendar is light:
🟡 ADP Weekly Employment Change 🟡 Trade Balance 🟡 Existing Home Sales 🟡 Wholesale Inventories
No major red-folder releases.
The bigger story remains:
Geopolitics + Inflation Waiting Room
Markets continue reacting to headlines surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's comments that a deal could potentially be reached within days. Oil has pulled back as traders price in a possible easing of tensions, although uncertainty remains elevated. (Reuters)
My interpretation:
The market appears to be waiting for CPI tomorrow before committing to a larger directional move.
🟣 VIX Outlook
Current Price
18.16
Daily Open
18.19
Weekly Low
17.94
Key Observation
VIX has completely retraced from last week's panic spike.
Instead of expanding higher, volatility continues leaking lower.
That is generally supportive of equities.
Bullish VIX Scenario (Bearish Equities)
If buyers regain control:
Targets
- ▸18.19 Daily Open
- ▸18.35 Daily High
- ▸18.56 NDOG Mid
- ▸18.92 NDOG High
- ▸19.22 Swing High
- ▸19.81 1H Order Block
- ▸20.29 Weekly Open
- ▸20.90 NWOG Mid
Bearish VIX Scenario (Bullish Equities)
Targets
- ▸17.94 Weekly Low
- ▸17.88 Swing Low
- ▸17.41 1H Bullish FVG Mid
- ▸16.69 1H Bullish FVG Low
- ▸15.88 Monthly Open
Narrative
A break below 17.88 would likely fuel another leg higher in ES and NQ.
🔵 MNQ Analysis
Current Price
29,677
Weekly High
29,743
Weekly Open
28,843
Context
NQ has recovered aggressively from Friday's selloff.
Price has now reclaimed:
✅ Daily bullish FVG ✅ Previous week's opening gap ✅ Multiple London session lows
The question now becomes:
Can buyers continue through weekly highs before CPI?
Bullish Scenario
Targets
- ▸Daily High 29,727
- ▸Weekly High 29,743
- ▸Order Block 29,774
- ▸30,112 4H FVG Low
- ▸30,193 4H FVG Mid
- ▸30,260 Swing High
- ▸30,274 FVG High
This remains my preferred path unless VIX suddenly catches a bid.
Bearish Scenario
Targets
- ▸Premarket Low 29,615
- ▸London Low 29,566
- ▸Daily Low 29,302
- ▸Daily FVG High 29,222
- ▸Daily FVG Mid 29,083
- ▸Daily FVG Low 28,945
- ▸Weekly Open 28,843
- ▸Weekly Low 28,821
🔵 MES Analysis
Current Price
7,443
Weekly Open
7,368
Weekly High
7,476
Daily High
7,456
ES mirrors NQ almost perfectly.
The important difference:
ES has already reclaimed several major liquidity pools and is sitting much closer to weekly highs than weekly lows.
Bullish Scenario
Targets
- ▸Daily High 7,456
- ▸1H Inverted FVG Low 7,458
- ▸1H Inverted FVG Mid 7,462
- ▸1H Inverted FVG High 7,466
- ▸Weekly High 7,476
- ▸NWOG Low 7,484
- ▸NWOG Mid 7,501
- ▸NWOG High 7,518
If buyers clear 7,476, there is very little resistance before the May gap.
Bearish Scenario
Targets
- ▸Premarket Low 7,434
- ▸London Low 7,428
- ▸Daily Open 7,412
- ▸NWOG High 7,421
- ▸NWOG Mid 7,412
- ▸NWOG Low 7,403
- ▸Daily Low 7,390
- ▸Swing Lows 7,386 / 7,384
Below there:
- ▸Weekly Open 7,368
- ▸Weekly Low 7,355
- ▸Daily Bullish FVG 7,345
🎯 Intermarket Narrative
What I Like
VIX
Still unable to sustain strength.
NQ
Recovered the majority of Friday's collapse.
ES
Holding above weekly open.
News Calendar
No major economic catalyst until CPI.
What Makes Me Cautious
Overnight Extension
You mentioned this yourself in the transcript:
We have already achieved many of the upside targets overnight.
That matters.
When markets run aggressively overnight into a low-news session, they often spend New York hours:
- ▸Consolidating
- ▸Retracing
- ▸Waiting for the next catalyst
Transcript reference:
What I'll Be Watching
Bullish Confirmation
VIX
- ▸Stays below 18.35
MNQ
- ▸Holds above 29,615
MES
- ▸Holds above 7,428
If those conditions remain true:
I would expect continuation attempts toward weekly highs.
Bearish Confirmation
VIX
- ▸Reclaims 18.56 and 18.92
MNQ
- ▸Loses 29,615 then 29,566
MES
- ▸Loses 7,434 then 7,428
If that occurs:
The market likely spends today retracing part of Monday's overnight recovery before CPI.
Day Traders Versus Outlook
Market Bias: Slightly Bullish
Confidence: 6.5/10
Why not higher?
- ▸Overnight move already extended
- ▸CPI tomorrow
- ▸PPI later this week
- ▸Geopolitical headlines remain unpredictable
This feels more like a:
"React to liquidity and wait for confirmation" day
rather than a day to aggressively front-run a directional move.
#staydiscipline
#staypatient
Transcript reference:
Bias by Ticker
MNQ1! MNQ
VIX has completely retraced from last week's panic spike. This remains my preferred path unless VIX suddenly catches a bid.
MES MES
Cory publishes the working thesis before the session, not after — this Playbook and Trade Review are part of that same documented process. No signals, no highlight reel.
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