2026-06-10

MES1!

📊 Pre-Market Playbook (PMP) – Wednesday, June 10, 2026

🚨 CPI DAY

Today is all about inflation.

At 8:30 AM ET, markets receive:

🔴 Core CPI m/m — Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.4%) 🔴 Core CPI y/y — Forecast 2.9% (Previous 2.8%) 🔴 CPI m/m — Forecast 0.5% (Previous 0.6%) 🔴 CPI y/y — Forecast 4.2% (Previous 3.8%)

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Market Narrative

Yesterday's selloff was driven by two primary themes:

1. Technology Weakness

Large-cap technology saw broad liquidation pressure, dragging NQ lower and spilling over into ES.

2. Geopolitical Risk

Concerns surrounding Iran and continued Middle East uncertainty added risk-off sentiment.

Despite President Trump's comments suggesting a possible agreement could be reached soon, traders remain cautious and continue pricing geopolitical uncertainty into markets.

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🔴 VIX Analysis

Current Price

21.95

Daily High

22.53

Weekly High

23.34

Quarterly Open

24.30

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Key Observation

VIX successfully reclaimed:

✅ Weekly Opening Gap ✅ Weekly Open ✅ Multiple resistance levels

This is the first meaningful volatility expansion we've seen in weeks.

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Bullish VIX Scenario (Bearish Equities)

Targets

1. ▸Daily High → 22.53
2. ▸Weekly High → 23.34
3. ▸NDOG Mid → 23.91
4. ▸Quarterly Open → 24.30
5. ▸3M Level → 24.50

If CPI comes in hotter than expected:

This becomes the most likely path.

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Bearish VIX Scenario (Bullish Equities)

Targets

1. ▸NWOG High → 21.51
2. ▸NWOG Mid → 20.90
3. ▸Weekly Open → 20.29
4. ▸Swing Low → 19.28
5. ▸1H Bullish FVG High → 18.12
6. ▸1H Bullish FVG Mid → 17.41
7. ▸1H Bullish FVG Low → 16.69

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🔵 MES Analysis

Current Price

7,322

Weekly Open

7,368

Daily Open

7,382

Daily High

7,393

Daily Low

7,305

Weekly Low

7,247

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Market Structure

ES sold aggressively yesterday.

Price is currently sitting inside a bullish Daily Fair Value Gap:

• ▸High → 7,345.50
• ▸Mid → 7,316.50
• ▸Low → 7,287.25

Transcript reference:

This zone is critical.

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Bullish Scenario

If CPI comes in softer:

Targets

1. ▸Hold Daily FVG Mid (7,316)
2. ▸Reclaim Daily FVG High (7,345)
3. ▸Weekly Open (7,368)
4. ▸Daily Open (7,382)
5. ▸Daily High (7,393)
6. ▸NWOG Low (7,403)
7. ▸NWOG Mid (7,412)
8. ▸NWOG High (7,421)
9. ▸Weekly High (7,491)

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Bearish Scenario

If CPI comes in hotter:

Targets

1. ▸Weekly Low (7,247)
2. ▸Daily Bullish FVG High (7,254)
3. ▸Daily Bullish FVG Mid (7,223)
4. ▸Daily Bullish FVG Low (7,191)

A break below 7,247 would signal a significant shift in weekly structure.

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🔵 MNQ Analysis

Current Price

28,678

Weekly Open

28,843

Daily Open

29,102

Daily High

29,169

Weekly High

29,847

Weekly Low

28,227

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Key Observation

NQ remains the weakest index.

Technology was the primary driver of yesterday's selloff.

Price is trading below:

❌ Daily Open ❌ Weekly Open ❌ 4H Bearish FVG

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Bullish Scenario

If CPI is market-friendly:

Targets

1. ▸Daily High (29,169)
2. ▸4H FVG Low (29,195)
3. ▸4H FVG Mid (29,405)
4. ▸4H FVG High (29,615)
5. ▸NWOG High (29,675)
6. ▸Weekly High (29,847)

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Bearish Scenario

Targets

1. ▸Daily Bullish FVG High (28,553)
2. ▸Weekly Low (28,227)
3. ▸Daily Bullish FVG Mid (28,260)
4. ▸Daily Bullish FVG Low (27,966)
5. ▸NWOG High (27,888)
6. ▸NWOG Mid (27,835)
7. ▸NWOG Low (27,782)

This remains the more vulnerable index if inflation surprises higher.

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📈 Intermarket Framework

Bullish Equities

You want to see:

• ▸VIX below 21.51
• ▸ES reclaim 7,345
• ▸NQ reclaim 29,195

That would suggest yesterday's selloff was simply positioning ahead of CPI.

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Bearish Equities

You want to see:

• ▸VIX above 22.53
• ▸ES lose 7,305
• ▸NQ lose 28,553

That would suggest institutional selling is continuing and CPI provided the catalyst.

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🎯 Day Traders Versus Outlook

Before CPI

Bias: Neutral

Confidence: 4/10

Reason:

This is one of the few days where the economic release matters more than the technicals.

Everything discussed above can be invalidated within seconds by the CPI print.

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After CPI

Soft CPI

Likely outcome:

• ▸VIX sells off
• ▸ES reclaims weekly open
• ▸NQ squeezes into the 4H bearish FVG

Hot CPI

Likely outcome:

• ▸VIX attacks weekly highs
• ▸NQ revisits weekly lows
• ▸ES tests lower Daily FVGs

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Trading Plan

Today is not a day to front-run.

Wait for:

1. ▸CPI release
2. ▸Initial liquidity sweep
3. ▸Market Structure Shift
4. ▸Confirmation from VIX

Then execute.

As you've said many times in your reviews:

"React to what price does, not what you think it should do."

#staydiscipline

#staypatient

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