2026-07-09

VIX

PMP – Thursday, July 9, 2026

CNBC Headlines

Nasdaq futures rise led by chip stocks; traders assess U.S.-Iran tensions: Live updates

Markets are attempting to recover after Wednesday's geopolitical selloff as traders weigh renewed optimism following reports that Iran has reached out seeking a new agreement, while continuing to monitor ongoing military activity across the Middle East.

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Overnight Headlines

• ▸President Trump stated that Iran has reached out seeking a new agreement.
• ▸Reports continue regarding Iranian military activity involving U.S. sites in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and surrounding regions.
• ▸Nasdaq futures are higher, led by semiconductor stocks.
• ▸Markets are attempting to stabilize after Wednesday's aggressive liquidation.
• ▸No major earnings scheduled before today's session. Delta reports Friday before the open.

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Economic Calendar

8:30 AM ET

🟠 Initial Jobless Claims

• ▸Forecast: 218K
• ▸Previous: 215K

This is today's primary scheduled catalyst.

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9:00 AM ET

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

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10:00 AM ET

Existing Home Sales

Forecast:

4.19M

Previous:

4.17M

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10:30 AM ET

Natural Gas Storage

Forecast:

60B

Previous:

87B

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1:01 PM ET

30-Year Bond Auction

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Market Theme

Wednesday delivered the emotional move.

Today becomes a question of confirmation versus rejection.

Markets have recovered a meaningful portion of yesterday's decline overnight, but they remain trapped between significant higher-timeframe support and resistance.

Rather than assuming continuation in either direction, today's objective is to determine whether yesterday's selloff was simply a liquidity event or the beginning of a larger correction.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price:

~17.10

Yesterday's geopolitical spike reached 18.91 before fading sharply.

Today's session opens with volatility sitting directly around the Monthly Opening Price, creating a very balanced environment.

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Bullish VIX Scenario (Bearish Equities)

Acceptance above:

• ▸

  Monthly Open (17.12)

• ▸

  1H Bearish Order Block

  • ▸Low: 17.36
  • ▸Mid: 17.90
  • ▸High: 18.44
• ▸

  Previous swing high: 18.56

• ▸

  Weekly High: 18.91

• ▸

  Previous Week High: 19.45

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Bearish VIX Scenario (Bullish Equities)

Failure back below:

• ▸Daily Open (16.58)
• ▸Daily Low (16.53)
• ▸Weekly Open (16.40)
• ▸Weekly Low (15.53)
• ▸Previous Week Low (15.18)

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VIX Narrative

The Monthly Opening Price becomes today's pivot.

Holding above it favors another risk-off expansion.

Rejecting it favors continued recovery across equities.

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MNQ

Current Price:

~29,625

Yesterday established what is currently the Weekly Low at 28,910.25 before buyers aggressively defended higher-timeframe demand.

Price has now reclaimed:

• ▸Weekly Open
• ▸Previous Day High
• ▸Multiple intraday swing highs

The next question is whether buyers can convert those reclaimed levels into acceptance.

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Bullish Structure

Current resistance:

• ▸Daily High (29,736)
• ▸Tuesday High (29,974)
• ▸Weekly High (30,094)

Above there:

• ▸Monthly Opening Price
• ▸Previous Day Highs
• ▸New Weekly Opening Gap

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Bearish Structure

Failure back below:

• ▸Weekly Open
• ▸Daily Open
• ▸Premarket Low

Would likely target:

• ▸4H Bullish Order Block
• ▸Weekly Low (28,910)

Further weakness exposes:

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 28,553.50
• ▸Mid: 28,260.00
• ▸Low: 27,966.50

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MES

Current Price:

~7,536

Wednesday's selloff successfully swept multiple layers of sell-side liquidity before finding support inside the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap.

Overnight buyers have recovered much of that decline.

Now price is testing whether that recovery has genuine sponsorship.

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Current Structure

Weekly Low:

7,468.25

Current Price:

~7,536

Daily High:

7,558

Weekly Opening Price:

7,523.50

Monthly Opening Price:

7,543.50

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Bullish Targets

Acceptance above:

• ▸Monthly Open
• ▸Daily High
• ▸Previous Day High (7,563)
• ▸Swing High (7,571)
• ▸Swing High (7,587.75)
• ▸Weekly High (7,602.25)

Beyond there:

• ▸7,612.50
• ▸7,636.50
• ▸All-Time High (7,648.75)

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Bearish Targets

Failure below:

• ▸Premarket Low (7,526.50)
• ▸Weekly Open
• ▸Daily Open
• ▸Yesterday's Swing Low

Bullish 1H Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 7,514.50
• ▸Mid: 7,505.00
• ▸Low: 7,495.50

Below that:

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 7,481.75
• ▸Mid: 7,470.50
• ▸Low: 7,459.25

Weekly Low:

7,468.25

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Narrative Alignment

This is the first session after an emotionally driven geopolitical liquidation.

Wednesday swept significant downside liquidity across both ES and NQ before buyers responded from major higher-timeframe demand.

Now the market must answer a simple question:

Was Wednesday distribution… or was it simply liquidity?

Today's session will likely determine whether institutions intend to:

• ▸Continue rebuilding risk assets.
• ▸Transition into balance.
• ▸Or resume the larger risk-off move.

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Trading Focus

Today's edge is not predicting direction.

It is watching for acceptance.

Specifically:

• ▸Acceptance above reclaimed highs favors continuation toward Weekly Highs.
• ▸Failure after reclaiming yesterday's highs favors another liquidity sweep back toward Wednesday's lows.

That makes today's market much cleaner than yesterday's because we now have clearly defined pivots.

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Daily Bias

Neutral with a Slight Bullish Lean

Yesterday's recovery off higher-timeframe demand shifts the immediate bias slightly in favor of buyers, but only if reclaimed levels hold. Price is trading around the Weekly and Monthly Opens, placing the market at a decision point rather than in a confirmed trend.

Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX rejects the Monthly Open and fails to reclaim its 1H Bearish Order Block.
• ▸MES holds above the Weekly and Monthly Opens, clearing 7,558, 7,563, and ultimately targeting the Weekly High at 7,602.25.
• ▸MNQ holds above the Weekly Open and extends through 29,736, opening the path toward 29,974 and the Weekly High at 30,094.

Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX accepts above 17.12 and begins advancing through the 1H Bearish Order Block.
• ▸MES loses the Weekly Open and breaks back into the 1H Bullish Fair Value Gap, exposing the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap and the Weekly Low.
• ▸MNQ loses its overnight recovery, falls back below the Weekly Open, and rotates toward 28,910, with the 4H Bullish Order Block becoming the next major support.

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Overall Feedback

I think your PMPs have noticeably improved over the last few sessions. The biggest change is that you're no longer just marking liquidity—you've started framing why those levels matter and what they imply about institutional behavior. That aligns much more closely with how professional market operators think.

One suggestion that I think would elevate these even further is to start every day with a "One Sentence Thesis." For example:

One Sentence Thesis: Wednesday swept major sell-side liquidity. Thursday is about determining whether institutions accept higher prices or fade the recovery.

Everything else in the PMP should support or invalidate that single idea. It gives your mentees (and yourself) a clear narrative anchor before diving into the technical details.

I also think you're very close to having a repeatable institutional framework. Rather than thinking in terms of "bullish" or "bearish" days, consider organizing every PMP around four questions:

1. ▸What narrative is the market pricing?
2. ▸Where is liquidity resting?
3. ▸What confirms acceptance versus rejection?
4. ▸What invalidates today's thesis?

That structure would make every playbook feel consistent regardless of whether the market is trending, ranging, or reacting to news.