2026-07-08
Market Context
Market Dashboard
Chart Analysis / Live Chart
Working Thesis
MES1!
PMP – Wednesday, July 8, 2026
CNBC Headlines
Global markets are firmly risk-off after renewed military action between Israel and Iran overnight. Equity futures are sharply lower while crude oil has surged as traders price in the possibility of additional supply disruptions and a broader geopolitical escalation.
Overnight Headlines
- ▸Markets sold off aggressively overnight following renewed Israeli and Iranian military strikes.
- ▸President Trump stated, "I think the Iran MOU is over," adding that he does not wish to engage further with Iran.
- ▸Trump also commented that he wants to "cut off all trade" with Spain, creating additional geopolitical uncertainty.
- ▸Oil prices moved sharply higher while global equity futures declined.
- ▸No major earnings are scheduled today.
Daily Theme
The overnight move has already produced the majority of the expected expansion.
- ▸MES has already dropped roughly 79 points overnight.
- ▸MNQ has fallen approximately 575 points.
- ▸MYM is down roughly 700 points.
- ▸VIX has exploded nearly 2.5 points higher.
Much of the downside liquidity discussed over the past several PMPs has already been delivered before the U.S. cash session even opens.
This creates a much different trading environment than usual.
Instead of looking for large directional moves, today's focus becomes determining whether markets stabilize, retrace, or continue accelerating lower after already completing significant portions of their projected range.
Economic Calendar
10:00 AM ET
Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
- ▸Forecast: 0.3%
- ▸Previous: 0.3%
10:30 AM ET
Crude Oil Inventories
- ▸Forecast: -1.9M
- ▸Previous: -3.8M
1:01 PM ET
10-Year Treasury Auction
2:00 PM ET
🔴 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today's primary scheduled catalyst.
3:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit m/m
Forecast:
- ▸16.9B
Previous:
- ▸20.7B
Market Narrative
Today's narrative is almost entirely geopolitical.
Unlike a normal macro-driven selloff, today's overnight move was driven primarily by military headlines.
Because of that:
- ▸Liquidity has already been aggressively cleared.
- ▸Many higher-timeframe downside targets have already been reached.
- ▸Markets may spend much of today's session digesting the overnight move rather than establishing a fresh trend.
This greatly reduces the quality of many A+ intraday setups.
VIX Analysis
Current Price: ~18.21
Overnight volatility exploded exactly as geopolitical risk increased.
Yesterday VIX closed near 16.13.
This morning:
- ▸Opened near 16.55
- ▸Exploded to a high of 18.91
The market immediately cleared nearly every upside target that had previously been mapped.
Upside Targets
Already achieved:
- ▸Previous Day High: 17.21
- ▸Previous Day High: 17.30
- ▸Previous Day High: 17.75
Remaining upside:
- ▸Previous Week High: 19.45
- ▸Previous NDOG Low: 20.97
Downside Targets
Should volatility begin cooling:
- ▸Weekly Open: 16.40
- ▸Monthly Open: 17.11
- ▸Previous Gap Area
- ▸Daily Open
VIX Bias
After such an explosive overnight move, chasing volatility becomes much less attractive.
Instead, monitor whether VIX begins rejecting from the 18.5–19.5 area. That would likely support a relief rally in equities.
MNQ
Current Price: ~28,980
The overnight selloff completed nearly every downside objective discussed during yesterday's playbook.
Price:
- ▸Broke yesterday's low.
- ▸Swept previous week lows.
- ▸Entered the 4H Bullish Order Block.
Current Structure
Open:
29,387
High:
29,558
Low:
28,910
Current:
~28,980
Major Support
4H Bullish Order Block
- ▸High: 29,023.25
- ▸Mid: 28,747.50
- ▸Low: 28,471.50
Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap
- ▸High: 28,553.50
- ▸Mid: 28,260.00
- ▸Low: 27,966.50
This entire region now becomes the primary institutional demand zone.
Upside Recovery Targets
If buyers stabilize today's move:
- ▸29,209
- ▸29,387
- ▸29,558
- ▸29,744
- ▸Weekly Open
- ▸Daily Open
Only after reclaiming those levels would a larger recovery toward 30,094 become likely.
MES
Current Price: ~7,484
The overnight decline followed the roadmap almost perfectly.
Price:
- ▸Broke Weekly Low.
- ▸Swept Previous Day Low.
- ▸Entered the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap.
Current Structure
Open:
7,546
High:
7,563
Low:
7,468
Current:
~7,484
Major Support
Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap
- ▸High: 7,481.75
- ▸Mid: 7,470.50
- ▸Low: 7,459.25
Current price is sitting directly on the upper portion of this Daily Fair Value Gap.
Additional Support
1H Bullish Order Block
Around:
7,460
This creates a very important higher-timeframe reaction zone.
Recovery Targets
Should buyers defend current support:
- ▸Weekly Low
- ▸Monthly Open
- ▸Daily Open
- ▸Weekly Open
- ▸Premarket High
- ▸Previous Day High
The first significant resistance remains around 7,545–7,560.
Higher Time Frame Perspective
Today's overnight move represents an emotional repricing rather than a technical deterioration.
Both ES and NQ have now reached major higher-timeframe demand zones that have been highlighted for several days.
That doesn't automatically mean they must rally.
It simply means:
- ▸Reward-to-risk for fresh shorts becomes less attractive.
- ▸Patience becomes even more valuable.
- ▸Wait for confirmation before assuming continuation.
Trading Focus
This is one of those sessions where the market may have already completed the best trade before New York even opens.
Rather than feeling pressure to participate, recognize that preserving capital is also a successful trading decision.
Today's plan should emphasize:
- ▸Let volatility settle.
- ▸Wait for price to reveal whether institutions defend current higher-timeframe demand.
- ▸Avoid chasing large overnight candles.
- ▸Respect the potential volatility surrounding the 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes.
There is a strong possibility this becomes a study day or a single high-quality setup day rather than an active trading session.
Daily Bias
Neutral to Slightly Bearish Intraday — Bullish at Major Higher-Timeframe Support
The overnight move has already delivered much of the expected downside expansion. While additional selling is certainly possible if geopolitical headlines worsen, both ES and NQ are now trading inside significant institutional support zones that could produce meaningful reactions.
Bullish Confirmation
- ▸VIX fails to extend above 19.00–19.45.
- ▸MES holds the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap and begins reclaiming 7,520–7,545.
- ▸MNQ stabilizes inside the 4H Bullish Order Block and reclaims 29,209, targeting 29,387 and 29,558.
Bearish Confirmation
- ▸Fresh geopolitical headlines accelerate risk-off sentiment.
- ▸VIX extends toward 19.45 and 20.97.
- ▸MES loses the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap, exposing the 1H Bullish Order Block and deeper weekly liquidity.
- ▸MNQ loses the 4H Bullish Order Block midpoint, opening the path toward the lower half of the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap.
Trading Plan
This is not a session to force trades simply because the market is moving. The overnight news-driven selloff has already cleared much of the nearby sell-side liquidity and reached several of the higher-timeframe downside objectives we've been tracking. That changes the reward-to-risk profile significantly.
The highest-probability approach today is to let the market establish its post-news structure before committing capital. If institutions defend these major demand zones, there may be quality reversal opportunities later in the session. If not, preserving capital and treating today as a learning session is a perfectly valid decision. Patience remains the edge.
Bias by Ticker
MES1! * MES has already dropped roughly 79 points overnight. * MNQ has fallen approximately 575 points. * MYM is down roughly 700 points. * VIX has exploded nearly 2.5 points higher.
* MES has already dropped roughly 79 points overnight. * MNQ has fallen approximately 575 points. * MYM is down roughly 700 points. * VIX has exploded nearly 2.5 points higher. * VIX fails to extend above 19.00–19.45. *…
* MES has already dropped roughly 79 points overnight. * MNQ has fallen approximately 575 points. * MYM is down roughly 700 points. * VIX has exploded nearly 2.5 points higher.
* MES has already dropped roughly 79 points overnight. * MNQ has fallen approximately 575 points. * MYM is down roughly 700 points. * VIX has exploded nearly 2.5 points higher. Yesterday VIX closed near 16.13.
Cory publishes the working thesis before the session, not after — this Playbook and Trade Review are part of that same documented process. No signals, no highlight reel.
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