2026-07-17

MES1!

PMP – Friday, July 17, 2026

Markets head into the final session of the week with a very different tone than they carried just 24 hours ago.

Yesterday's selling accelerated throughout the session following continued weakness in semiconductors and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Overnight, Nasdaq futures extended those losses as the global semiconductor selloff continued, while volatility gapped higher into Friday's session. At the same time, President Trump's address Thursday evening and continued headlines surrounding Iran have kept geopolitical risk elevated heading into the weekend.

Today's session is no longer about whether inflation supports equities.

The market has already priced that in.

Today's question is whether institutions continue de-risking into the weekend or whether yesterday's selloff was sufficient to attract buyers back into higher-timeframe demand.

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CNBC Headlines

Nasdaq futures fall 2% as global chip sell-off continues

Technology remains under heavy pressure after yesterday's decline, with semiconductor stocks leading another overnight selloff. Since technology has been the primary leadership group throughout this rally, continued weakness there increases the probability of broader market pressure unless buyers can quickly reclaim key intraday levels.

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Overnight Headlines

• ▸Nasdaq futures extend losses as semiconductor weakness continues.
• ▸President Trump addressed the nation Thursday evening following another round of U.S. military operations.
• ▸Iran continues threatening retaliation following recent U.S. strikes.
• ▸Volatility gaps higher heading into Friday's session.
• ▸Markets prepare for weekend headline risk following one of the most volatile geopolitical weeks in recent months.

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Economic Calendar

8:30 AM ET

🟡 Building Permits

Forecast: 1.40M

Previous: 1.41M

🟡 Housing Starts

Forecast: 1.31M

Previous: 1.18M

🟡 Import Prices m/m

Forecast: -0.7%

Previous: 1.9%

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9:15 AM ET

🟡 Capacity Utilization

Forecast: 76.2%

Previous: 76.2%

🟡 Industrial Production m/m

Forecast: 0.2%

Previous: 0.1%

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10:00 AM ET

🟠 Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Forecast: 51.0

Previous: 49.5

🟠 Preliminary Inflation Expectations

Previous: 4.6%

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Unlike earlier this week, today's economic calendar is unlikely to become the primary market driver. Consumer Sentiment could generate volatility around 10:00 AM ET, but geopolitical developments and institutional positioning ahead of the weekend are likely to have a greater influence on today's auction.

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Weekly Context

This week has transitioned through multiple market narratives.

It began with inflation optimism following CPI and PPI, shifted toward renewed geopolitical escalation involving Iran, and now finishes with institutions reducing exposure as technology leads a broad risk-off move.

The most important observation is that much of today's expected downside has already occurred overnight.

That changes today's playbook.

Rather than expecting immediate continuation lower, traders should now determine whether institutions begin accumulating inside higher-timeframe demand or continue distributing into the weekend.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price: ~18.15

The VIX gapped higher overnight and has already established a new Weekly High.

Volatility has successfully reclaimed the Monthly Opening Price and is now trading inside higher-timeframe supply.

This places VIX at a critical decision point.

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Bullish VIX Scenario (Bearish Equities)

Acceptance above:

• ▸

  Daily Opening Price (18.01)

• ▸

  Daily High / Weekly High (18.69)

• ▸

  Previous Week High (18.91)

• ▸

  Higher-Timeframe Bearish Order Block

  • ▸Low: 19.84
  • ▸Mid: 20.06
  • ▸High: 20.28

If volatility continues accepting above today's opening gap, institutions are likely continuing to reduce risk heading into the weekend.

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Bearish VIX Scenario (Bullish Equities)

Failure below:

• ▸

  Daily Open (18.01)

• ▸

  New Day Opening Gap

  • ▸Upper Quadrant (17.69)
  • ▸Midpoint (17.37)
• ▸

  Monthly Opening Price (17.11)

Failure back inside today's opening gap would suggest overnight fear is beginning to fade.

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MNQ

Current Price: ~28,748

NASDAQ has already completed the majority of the expected downside move before the New York open.

Price is now sitting inside higher-timeframe demand after printing a new Weekly Low overnight.

This shifts today's focus from chasing weakness toward identifying whether institutions begin accepting higher prices from demand.

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Bullish Structure

Acceptance above:

• ▸

  Intraday Swing High (28,925.00)

• ▸

  Market Structure Shift (29,026.50)

• ▸

  Daily Opening Price (29,186.75)

• ▸

  Daily High (29,220.00)

• ▸

  Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

  • ▸Low: 29,226.50
  • ▸Mid: 29,275.25
  • ▸High: 29,324.00

If buyers reclaim these levels, today's overnight selloff begins looking more like a liquidity event than sustained institutional distribution.

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Bearish Structure

Failure below:

• ▸Weekly Low (28,554.75)

Primary demand:

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 28,553.50
• ▸Upper Quadrant (28,406.75)
• ▸Mid (28,260.00)
• ▸Previous Day Low (28,264.25)
• ▸Previous Week Low (28,227.25)
• ▸Lower Quadrant (28,113.25)
• ▸Low (27,966.50)

This remains the primary institutional accumulation zone should selling continue.

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MES

Current Price: ~7,516

MES also completed much of its expected downside overnight but has held higher relative strength compared to MNQ.

Unlike NASDAQ, ES remains inside its 1H Bullish Fair Value Gap, suggesting buyers still have an opportunity to defend higher-timeframe demand.

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Bullish Structure

Acceptance above:

• ▸Swing High (7,523.50)
• ▸Market Structure Shift (7,530.25)
• ▸Swing High (7,541.25)
• ▸Monthly Opening Price (7,543.50)
• ▸Daily Opening Price (7,571.00)
• ▸Daily High (7,574.75)
• ▸1H Bearish Order Block (7,586.75)

Acceptance above these levels would suggest institutions have completed their overnight liquidation and are beginning accumulation into the weekend.

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Bearish Structure

Failure below:

• ▸Weekly Low (7,491.25)

Primary demand:

1H Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 7,514.50
• ▸Mid: 7,505.00
• ▸Low: 7,495.50

Below there:

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 7,481.75
• ▸Mid: 7,470.50
• ▸Previous Week Low (7,468.25)
• ▸Low: 7,459.25

Failure through both demand zones would expose significantly deeper downside into next week.

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Narrative Alignment

Yesterday's selling changed the market structure.

Instead of asking:

"Can sellers push lower?"

Today's question becomes:

"Has enough selling already occurred?"

Markets often complete large directional moves overnight before transitioning into consolidation or reversal during Friday's regular trading session.

With institutions already reducing exposure ahead of the weekend, chasing downside after an extended overnight move carries significantly lower expectancy than earlier in the week.

That doesn't automatically make today bullish.

It simply means price now needs to prove whether distribution is continuing or accumulation has begun.

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Trading Focus

Today's edge comes from observation before participation.

Monitor whether price:

• ▸Accepts back above overnight market structure shifts and begins reclaiming higher-timeframe levels.
• ▸Continues rejecting every rally, confirming institutional distribution remains active.
• ▸Responds to the 10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment release.
• ▸Holds or rejects higher-timeframe demand after the overnight liquidation.

After Thursday's loss and the extent of the overnight move, preserving capital carries more value than forcing a Friday trade.

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Daily Bias

Neutral to Slightly Bearish

Higher-timeframe momentum still favors sellers after Thursday's liquidation, but because so much of today's expected move has already occurred overnight, the probability of consolidation or countertrend retracements increases.

Friday also introduces weekend positioning, making institutions less likely to aggressively establish new risk unless a fresh catalyst emerges.

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Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX fails back below the Daily Open and retraces into today's opening gap.
• ▸MES reclaims 7,530, 7,543, and begins accepting above the Monthly Opening Price.
• ▸MNQ clears 29,026, reclaims the Daily Open, and trades back into the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap.

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Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX extends above yesterday's highs toward the previous week's highs and higher-timeframe Order Block.
• ▸MES loses the Weekly Low and trades through the 1H Bullish Fair Value Gap into the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap.
• ▸MNQ loses the Weekly Low and continues distributing toward the lower portions of the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap.

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Trader's Objective

• ▸Preserve weekly gains heading into the weekend.
• ▸Treat today primarily as an information-gathering session.
• ▸Study how price responds after an overnight expansion move.
• ▸Only execute if a textbook A+ setup develops with full intermarket confirmation.
• ▸If conditions remain unclear, choose observation over participation.

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Overall Feedback

One of the most valuable observations from your recording wasn't about price—it was about process.

You recognized that after Thursday's loss, your priority wasn't making the money back. It was improving your understanding of your own model. That's the mindset of a professional trader. You specifically noted that you wanted to "get information more than trade today," and that aligns perfectly with the market context.

From a market perspective, the overnight liquidation dramatically changed Friday's expectancy. Rather than searching for fresh momentum trades, today's edge comes from identifying whether institutions begin accumulating after completing a large overnight expansion or continue distributing into the weekend. Sometimes the highest-probability trade is recognizing that the auction has already completed much of its move before New York even opens.