2026-07-21

MES1!

PMP – Tuesday, July 21, 2026**

This is much closer to the standard we've established over the past two weeks. After reading your transcript and looking at your charts, one thing stands out:

The market is no longer trading the economic calendar—it's trading geopolitical risk and earnings.

That should be the backbone of today's PMP.

The transcript also reveals something else you've improved on: you're no longer simply identifying support and resistance. You're identifying where the auction should decide (your "decision blocks" and changes in state of delivery). That's exactly what the written PMP should communicate.

Here's how I would write it.

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**

Markets begin the new trading week balancing two competing narratives.

Overnight, equity futures continued recovering from Friday's weakness while volatility opened with a gap lower, suggesting investors are initially willing to price out some of last week's geopolitical fear. However, that optimism remains fragile after renewed reports of U.S. strikes against Iranian-backed forces and continued threats to Middle Eastern shipping routes.

With no major economic releases scheduled today, institutional attention shifts toward earnings season and geopolitical headlines, both of which are likely to drive today's directional conviction.

The primary question becomes:

Will institutions continue accepting higher prices after Monday's consolidation, or was yesterday simply a pause before another expansion move?

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CNBC Headlines

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire

Markets continue navigating geopolitical uncertainty after renewed military activity in the Middle East. While ceasefire negotiations remain ongoing, continued military escalation keeps geopolitical risk elevated and supports periodic rotations into defensive assets.

Stocks making the biggest premarket moves: General Motors, 3M, Novartis, Nebius & more

Corporate earnings continue replacing economic data as the week's primary catalyst. With several large-cap companies reporting throughout the week—including Tesla and Alphabet on Wednesday—sector rotation may become increasingly important.

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Overnight Headlines

• ▸U.S. military operations continue while diplomatic efforts pursue a 10-day ceasefire.
• ▸Futures trade modestly higher following Monday's consolidation.
• ▸VIX gaps lower after Friday's elevated close.
• ▸Earnings season accelerates with several major companies reporting throughout the week.
• ▸Markets continue monitoring geopolitical developments for headline-driven volatility.

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Economic Calendar

8:15 AM ET

🟡 ADP Weekly Employment Change

Historically a low-impact release, although traders should remain aware of any unexpected labor market surprises.

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Later This Week

🟡 Wednesday

• ▸Crude Oil Inventories

🟠 Thursday

• ▸Initial Jobless Claims

Unlike previous weeks, today's session contains no major scheduled economic catalyst, increasing the probability that earnings headlines and geopolitical developments dictate institutional positioning.

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Weekly Context

Monday's session produced very little directional conviction.

Both MES and MNQ remained largely inside Friday's range, while VIX retraced part of Friday's advance before closing near last week's levels.

Overnight, however, futures have begun probing back toward Monday's highs while VIX has opened lower.

That creates an important expectation:

Today's auction should determine whether Monday represented accumulation before continuation higher or distribution before another move lower.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price: ~17.78

After finishing Friday near weekly highs, volatility opened Tuesday with a meaningful gap lower, reflecting improving overnight sentiment.

Price now sits directly inside today's opening gap, creating one of the most important decision areas of the session.

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Bullish VIX Scenario (Bearish Equities)

Acceptance above:

• ▸Today's Opening Gap Midpoint (18.07)
• ▸Upper Quadrant (18.32)
• ▸Swing High (18.68)
• ▸Weekly Open (18.90)

Acceptance back above today's opening gap would suggest institutions are once again pricing geopolitical risk into equities.

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Bearish VIX Scenario (Bullish Equities)

Failure below:

• ▸Daily Open (17.48)
• ▸Weekly Low (17.41)
• ▸Monthly Open (17.11)
• ▸Friday Opening Gap Low (16.73)

Continued acceptance beneath today's opening gap favors additional strength across equity indices.

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MNQ

Current Price: ~29,168

NASDAQ has recovered much of Friday's liquidation but now sits directly inside a major decision zone.

Rather than chasing strength, today's focus becomes whether institutions can successfully accept prices above Monday's highs.

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Bullish Structure

Acceptance above:

• ▸Weekly High (29,192.50)
• ▸Friday High (29,220.00)
• ▸Decision Block
• ▸Swing High (29,532.00)
• ▸Swing High (29,644.75)
• ▸Previous High (29,796.50)

Acceptance above this entire structure would confirm institutions remain willing to mark technology higher despite geopolitical uncertainty.

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Bearish Structure

Failure below:

• ▸Decision Block
• ▸Daily Open
• ▸Daily Demand

Primary downside targets:

• ▸Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap (28,553.50)
• ▸Midpoint (28,260.00)
• ▸Lower Quadrant (28,113.25)

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MES

Current Price: ~7,517

MES also spent Monday consolidating before recovering overnight.

Price now sits between higher-timeframe demand and yesterday's decision block, placing today's opening auction in a critical location.

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Bullish Structure

Acceptance above:

• ▸Daily High (7,529.75)
• ▸Monthly Open (7,543.50)
• ▸Weekly High (7,552.25)
• ▸Friday High (7,574.75)
• ▸1H Bearish Order Block (7,586.75)
• ▸Swing High (7,615.50)

Acceptance above these levels would suggest Monday's consolidation served as accumulation rather than distribution.

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Bearish Structure

Failure below:

• ▸

  1H Bullish Fair Value Gap

  • ▸High (7,514.50)
  • ▸Mid (7,505.00)

Then:

• ▸Weekly Low (7,473.00)

Below there:

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High (7,481.75)
• ▸Mid (7,470.50)
• ▸Low (7,459.25)

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Narrative Alignment

Monday failed to establish directional conviction.

Instead, institutions spent the session consolidating Friday's large move.

Today's objective is determining whether that consolidation represents:

• ▸Accumulation before another expansion higher, or
• ▸Distribution before another leg lower.

The VIX opening gap provides the clearest confirmation.

If volatility fills today's opening gap while equities reject Monday's highs, sellers likely regain control.

If VIX remains below today's opening gap while MES and MNQ begin accepting above Monday's highs, buyers regain control.

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Trading Focus

Today's edge comes from waiting for the decision block to resolve.

Monitor whether:

• ▸VIX accepts above or below today's opening gap.
• ▸MES accepts above yesterday's decision block.
• ▸MNQ successfully clears Monday's highs.
• ▸Earnings headlines begin driving sector rotation throughout the session.

If markets remain trapped inside Monday's range, patience remains the highest-probability trade.

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Daily Bias

Neutral to Slightly Bullish

The overnight gap lower in VIX favors equities early in the session, but both MES and MNQ are trading directly beneath significant decision areas.

Without acceptance above those levels, Monday's consolidation could easily transition into another lower high.

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Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX remains below today's opening gap.
• ▸MES accepts above 7,543 and attacks the Weekly High.
• ▸MNQ clears 29,220 and extends toward 29,532.

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Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX reclaims today's opening gap and trades toward the Weekly Open.
• ▸MES loses the 1H Bullish Fair Value Gap and rotates toward the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap.
• ▸MNQ rejects Monday's highs and rotates back toward higher-timeframe demand around 28,553.

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Trader's Objective

• ▸Stay patient through the opening range.
• ▸Let the decision blocks determine directional bias.
• ▸Use VIX to confirm acceptance or rejection.
• ▸Allow earnings and geopolitical headlines to dictate conviction.
• ▸Trade only A+ setups that align across VIX, MES, and MNQ.

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I think this version captures what has made your recent PMPs so much stronger. It starts with the macro narrative, establishes the expectation for today's auction, then builds the VIX → MES → MNQ playbook around that expectation. It reads like an institutional morning brief rather than a coaching lesson, which is exactly the identity your Day Traders Versus PMPs have developed.