2026-07-24

MES1!

PMP – Friday, July 24, 2026**

This is a strong continuation of the framework you have been building over the past week.

The important improvement is that you are no longer treating the measured 0–1–2–3–4–5 path as a prediction that must happen. You are using it to identify:

• ▸Where manipulation may begin.
• ▸Where price should retrace if the move is healthy.
• ▸Where the next decision block must hold.
• ▸Where continuation becomes valid.
• ▸Where the projected move has likely reached completion.

That distinction is critical today because the market has already experienced substantial weekly expansion. MES and MNQ have sold deeply into higher-timeframe demand, while VIX has expanded into a higher-timeframe order block.

Friday is therefore not simply a bearish continuation day.

It is a continuation-versus-completion decision at the end of an already volatile week.

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CNBC Headlines

Dow futures rebound by 200 points as oil surge eases, Intel gains after earnings

Equity futures are attempting to stabilize after Thursday produced the worst session for the major averages in approximately one month.

Intel is trading higher following stronger-than-expected guidance, while a retreat in crude oil from Thursday’s extreme levels has reduced some of the immediate pressure on bond yields and equity valuations. However, the broader market remains cautious after Alphabet and Tesla intensified concerns surrounding AI spending, free cash flow and forward earnings expectations. (Reuters)

Trump considering a ‘massive attack’ on Iran as Tehran labels UK an accomplice

Geopolitical risk remains the primary threat to any attempted equity recovery.

President Trump said he is nearing a decision on a potentially larger military attack against Iran. Although no final decision has been announced, preparations are reportedly in place and continued threats against commercial shipping remain central to the administration’s justification for further escalation. (Axios)

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Overnight Headlines

• ▸Equity futures are attempting a modest rebound following Thursday’s sharp technology-led selloff.
• ▸Intel is higher after providing earnings and revenue guidance above expectations.
• ▸Crude oil has pulled back from Thursday’s highs, easing some immediate inflation and yield pressure.
• ▸Brent remains significantly elevated for the week despite falling back below [amount redacted].
• ▸The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain on course for consecutive weekly declines.
• ▸Concerns regarding AI capital expenditures continue to weigh on technology sentiment.
• ▸The possibility of another major U.S. attack on Iran keeps the market vulnerable to sudden headline-driven repricing.
• ▸Friday’s auction will balance short-covering and oversold conditions against unresolved geopolitical and inflation risk. (Reuters)

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Economic Calendar

9:45 AM ET

🟡 Flash Manufacturing PMI

• ▸Forecast: 54.4
• ▸Previous: 53.9

🟡 Flash Services PMI

• ▸Forecast: 51.3
• ▸Previous: 51.2

The PMI releases could determine whether the initial Friday rebound receives economic sponsorship.

Stronger data may support the growth narrative, but it could also reinforce the argument that the Federal Reserve has less room to ease policy while energy prices remain elevated.

Weak data could initially pressure equities through growth concerns, although a softer report may eventually reduce Treasury yields.

10:00 AM ET

🟡 New Home Sales

• ▸Forecast: 609K
• ▸Previous: 580K

This is unlikely to become the primary market catalyst unless the result significantly misses expectations.

There are no red-folder releases scheduled.

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Earnings Calendar

Before the Open

• ▸Verizon
• ▸Charter Communications
• ▸American Express
• ▸HCA Healthcare
• ▸Booz Allen Hamilton
• ▸NextEra Energy
• ▸Regions Financial
• ▸Truist Financial
• ▸Fifth Third Bancorp
• ▸Autoliv

Thursday After the Close

• ▸Intel
• ▸Newmont
• ▸Deckers
• ▸Boyd Gaming
• ▸RingCentral
• ▸Columbia Banking
• ▸MXL

Intel’s positive premarket response provides some support for MNQ, but the broader technology sector is still recovering from Thursday’s Alphabet- and Tesla-led liquidation.

The earnings narrative remains selective rather than broadly bullish:

Companies with credible guidance may be rewarded, but the market is no longer automatically rewarding revenue growth when capital spending and free-cash-flow concerns remain unresolved.

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Weekly Context

This week has been defined by three primary forces:

1. ▸Geopolitical escalation
2. ▸Surging oil prices
3. ▸Earnings-driven technology repricing

The indices attempted to recover earlier in the week, but neither MES nor MNQ sustained acceptance above their upper decision areas.

Thursday then delivered the continuation move:

• ▸VIX expanded into the 20.00 area.
• ▸MNQ traded through its weekly open and weekly low.
• ▸MES traded through its weekly open and the full daily bullish fair value gap.
• ▸Both indices entered deeper higher-timeframe demand.

Friday now begins after much of the obvious downside liquidity has already been delivered.

That changes the question from:

“Is the market bearish?”

to:

“Can sellers continue accepting price below higher-timeframe demand after the week’s expansion has already occurred?”

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VIX Analysis

Current Price

~18.86

VIX expanded substantially on Thursday, reaching above 20.00 before retracing into Friday’s open.

Price is now trading near both:

• ▸Weekly Open: 18.90
• ▸Daily Open: 18.96

This creates an immediate decision area around 18.90–19.00.

The volatility structure remains elevated, but VIX is no longer trading at the beginning of its expansion. It has already reached the higher-timeframe order block and is now deciding whether that move receives continuation or begins a deeper retracement.

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Bullish VIX Scenario

Bearish Equities

For VIX to resume higher, price must reclaim and accept above:

• ▸Weekly Open: 18.90
• ▸Daily Open: 18.96
• ▸Daily High: 19.05

The first major upside target is:

• ▸Thursday Swing High: ~19.68

Above there sits the higher-timeframe order block:

• ▸Low: 19.84
• ▸Midpoint: 20.06
• ▸High: 20.28

Additional reference:

• ▸Weekly High: ~20.31

The strongest bullish VIX confirmation would be:

1. ▸Acceptance above 19.05
2. ▸A retracement that holds 18.90
3. ▸Displacement through 19.68
4. ▸Continuation into 19.84–20.28

That would confirm that Thursday’s volatility expansion was not complete and would keep downside pressure on MES and MNQ.

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Bearish VIX Scenario

Bullish Equities

For VIX to continue lower, price must reject the 18.90–19.05 decision area and trade below:

• ▸Daily Low: 18.60
• ▸Thursday Swing Low: 18.51

Below there, the next downside targets are:

• ▸Prior NDOG High: 18.01
• ▸Thursday Gap High: 17.67
• ▸Additional support: 17.37
• ▸Monthly Open: 17.11
• ▸Gap Midpoint: 17.15

The cleaner bearish VIX sequence would be:

1. ▸Failure to reclaim 18.96
2. ▸Change in state of delivery below 18.60
3. ▸Failure to reclaim 18.51
4. ▸Expansion toward 18.01
5. ▸Continued rotation toward 17.67

That would support a Friday recovery in equities.

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MNQ Analysis

Current Price

~28,628

MNQ experienced another substantial decline Thursday and is now trading within the daily bullish fair value gap.

Price is below:

• ▸Daily Open: 28,708
• ▸Weekly Open: 28,747.50

However, MNQ is also approaching several significant higher-timeframe support levels.

The immediate decision area is approximately:

• ▸28,549.75
• ▸Daily FVG High: 28,553.50

This is the area where the market must determine whether Thursday’s bearish delivery has further sponsorship or whether the daily imbalance begins attracting buyers.

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Bullish Structure

For MNQ to reverse higher, price must hold above or reclaim:

• ▸Decision Area: 28,549.75–28,553.50
• ▸Daily Open: 28,708.00
• ▸Weekly Open: 28,747.50
• ▸Daily High: 28,734.75
• ▸Swing High: 28,782.00

Upside targets above that structure:

• ▸28,899.00
• ▸28,987.50
• ▸Four-Hour Order Block High: 29,023.25

Additional upside liquidity:

• ▸

  29,100

• ▸

  29,192.50

• ▸

  Daily FVG / inversion zone:

  • ▸High: 29,324.00
  • ▸Midpoint: 29,275.25
  • ▸Low: 29,226.50

The initial bullish reversal would not be confirmed merely by a bounce from 28,553.50.

MNQ must reclaim the weekly open and invalidate the bearish delivery above 28,782–28,899 before the larger recovery model becomes credible.

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Bearish Structure

Bearish continuation requires acceptance below:

• ▸Decision Area: 28,549.75
• ▸Daily FVG High: 28,553.50
• ▸Daily Low: ~28,466.25

Primary downside targets:

• ▸Weekly Low: 28,432.50
• ▸Prior Week Low: 28,408.25
• ▸Daily FVG Upper Quadrant: 28,406.75

Below there:

• ▸Previous Day Low: 28,264.25
• ▸Daily FVG Midpoint: 28,260.00
• ▸Previous Week Low: 28,227.25
• ▸Lower Quadrant: 28,113.25
• ▸Daily FVG Low: 27,966.50

The 28,432–28,406 area is the first major downside decision zone.

If price accepts beneath that cluster, the next complete draw becomes 28,260, with the possibility of extending toward 28,113.25.

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MES Analysis

Current Price

~7,457.75

MES has now traded below the daily bullish fair value gap that previously served as higher-timeframe demand.

That gap currently functions as a potential inversion:

• ▸Low: 7,459.25
• ▸Midpoint: 7,470.50
• ▸High: 7,481.75

Price is sitting directly near the low of that structure and close to the immediate decision level around 7,456.75.

Friday’s MES auction will likely be determined by whether price can reclaim the inverted gap or continue accepting below it.

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Bullish Structure

For MES to recover, price must first reclaim:

• ▸Decision Area: ~7,456.75
• ▸Daily FVG Low: 7,459.25
• ▸Daily High: 7,467.50
• ▸FVG Midpoint: 7,470.50
• ▸FVG High: 7,481.75
• ▸Weekly Open: 7,484.50

Above the weekly open, the primary target becomes the origin of Thursday’s bearish displacement:

• ▸Prior Decision Block / 1H Order Block: 7,504.25

Additional upside targets:

• ▸7,515.00
• ▸7,525.75
• ▸Higher liquidity near 7,535–7,539

The most important bullish confirmation is acceptance back above 7,481.75–7,484.50.

Until that happens, rallies remain retracements into an inverted daily fair value gap.

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Bearish Structure

Bearish continuation requires:

• ▸Failure below 7,459.25
• ▸Acceptance beneath 7,456.75
• ▸Loss of the 1H bullish order block high: 7,443.00
• ▸Break below the Daily Low: 7,433.50

Lower targets:

• ▸Swing Low: 7,418.50
• ▸Weekly Low: 7,411.75
• ▸Additional Swing Low: 7,409.50
• ▸Higher-Timeframe Order Block Midpoint: 7,413.00

Below there:

• ▸Higher-Timeframe Order Block Low: 7,383.00

The primary bearish completion zone is:

7,418.50–7,409.50

That zone combines:

• ▸The weekly low
• ▸Multiple swing lows
• ▸The midpoint of the higher-timeframe order block

A reaction from that location would align with your projected 3–4 retracement.

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Narrative Alignment

The market enters Friday with conflicting immediate forces.

Factors Supporting Equities

• ▸Crude oil has retreated from Thursday’s extreme levels.
• ▸Intel is higher following earnings and guidance.
• ▸MES and MNQ are trading inside or near higher-timeframe demand.
• ▸Thursday’s selloff may have already delivered much of the week’s institutional repricing.
• ▸End-of-week short covering could create a relief rally.

Factors Supporting Further Selling

• ▸VIX remains elevated near 18.90.
• ▸MES has inverted its daily bullish fair value gap.
• ▸MNQ remains below its weekly open and inside a larger bearish delivery sequence.
• ▸Oil remains materially elevated despite the pullback.
• ▸The threat of a major U.S. attack on Iran remains unresolved.
• ▸The major indices are still recovering from their worst session in approximately a month. (Reuters)

The market is therefore not choosing between a bullish macro environment and a bearish macro environment.

It is choosing between:

• ▸Relief after completed liquidation
• ▸Continuation after acceptance below higher-timeframe demand

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Bullish Equity Narrative

The bullish scenario begins with VIX failing near its opening decision area.

Required confirmation:

• ▸VIX rejects 18.90–19.05
• ▸VIX loses 18.60 and 18.51
• ▸MES reclaims 7,459.25
• ▸MES accepts above 7,481.75–7,484.50
• ▸MNQ holds the 28,549–28,553 decision area
• ▸MNQ reclaims 28,708–28,747.50

Under this model, Thursday’s decline represents:

• ▸An earnings-driven liquidation
• ▸A repricing of oil and geopolitical risk
• ▸Delivery into higher-timeframe demand
• ▸A potential weekly sell-side completion

MES Upside Path

• ▸7,467.50
• ▸7,470.50
• ▸7,481.75
• ▸7,484.50
• ▸7,504.25
• ▸7,515.00
• ▸7,525.75

MNQ Upside Path

• ▸28,708.00
• ▸28,747.50
• ▸28,782.00
• ▸28,899.00
• ▸28,987.50
• ▸29,023.25

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Bearish Equity Narrative

The bearish scenario requires VIX to defend the opening area and continue its higher-timeframe expansion.

Required confirmation:

• ▸VIX accepts above 19.05
• ▸VIX targets 19.68
• ▸MES fails below 7,459.25
• ▸MES accepts below 7,443.00
• ▸MNQ accepts below 28,549.75
• ▸MNQ trades through 28,432–28,406

Under this model, the overnight ranges are simply pauses after Thursday’s displacement rather than accumulation for a reversal.

MES Downside Path

• ▸7,443.00
• ▸7,433.50
• ▸7,418.50
• ▸7,413.00
• ▸7,411.75
• ▸7,409.50
• ▸7,383.00

MNQ Downside Path

• ▸28,553.50
• ▸28,466.25
• ▸28,432.50
• ▸28,408.25
• ▸28,406.75
• ▸28,264.25
• ▸28,260.00
• ▸28,113.25

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Trading Focus

Today’s edge will come from waiting for the market to reveal whether Thursday’s move is complete.

Do not assume that Friday must reverse simply because the market has already sold off.

Do not assume that Friday must continue simply because the weekly structure remains bearish.

Instead, observe three decision points:

VIX

18.90–19.05

Does VIX reclaim its opens and continue higher, or reject and trade through 18.60?

MNQ

28,549.75–28,553.50

Does the daily FVG attract buyers, or does price establish acceptance below it?

MES

7,456.75–7,459.25

Does price reclaim the inverted daily FVG, or use it as resistance for the next leg lower?

Those three responses should determine the valid directional narrative.

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Daily Bias

Neutral to Bearish

The broader weekly delivery remains bearish, but both indices have already traveled into significant higher-timeframe areas.

VIX remains elevated enough to support another leg lower, but it is also sitting directly at an important decision around its daily and weekly opens.

The bias remains bearish while:

• ▸VIX holds above 18.90
• ▸MNQ remains below 28,708
• ▸MES remains below 7,459.25–7,481.75

However, the quality of new shorts decreases if price expands directly into the lower targets without first producing a retracement.

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Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX rejects 18.90–19.05
• ▸VIX loses 18.60
• ▸MNQ defends 28,553.50
• ▸MNQ reclaims 28,708–28,747.50
• ▸MES reclaims 7,459.25
• ▸MES accepts above 7,481.75–7,484.50
• ▸Both indices displace above their overnight decision blocks

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Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX accepts above 19.05
• ▸VIX advances toward 19.68
• ▸MNQ accepts below 28,549.75
• ▸MNQ trades beneath 28,432–28,406
• ▸MES fails to reclaim 7,459.25
• ▸MES accepts below 7,443.00
• ▸PMI data or new geopolitical headlines reinforce inflation and risk-off pressure

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Trader’s Objective

• ▸Prioritize study and framework validation over P&L.
• ▸Do not chase a move that has already expanded through several weekly targets.
• ▸Require acceptance below demand before taking continuation shorts.
• ▸Require displacement through the decision block before taking reversal longs.
• ▸Use reduced risk if platform stability remains questionable.
• ▸Avoid trading if TradingView or [broker] begins freezing again.
• ▸Respect Friday conditions and protect the progress made during the week.
• ▸Focus on whether the manipulation-range framework correctly identifies the next decision point.

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Overall Feedback

Your comments about the week are important:

“I’m not too focused on the money right now because if I can get this right, this puts me in a place where I can almost print money on demand.”

I understand the point you are making. You are not literally suggesting the model eliminates uncertainty. You are recognizing that a clearly defined framework can make your process repeatable.

The discipline is keeping that confidence attached to evidence.

Today gives you an excellent test because all three markets are positioned at decision areas:

• ▸VIX: near the daily and weekly opens
• ▸MNQ: near the high of the daily bullish FVG
• ▸MES: near the low of an inverted daily bullish FVG

Your framework should answer four questions:

1. ▸Where did manipulation begin?
2. ▸Has the initial vector completed?
3. ▸Is the retracement holding the proper decision block?
4. ▸Is price accepting toward the next liquidity objective?

The defining principle for Friday is:

The market has already delivered the weekly expansion. Today is about proving whether the move has continuation—not assuming that it does.