2026-07-23
Market Context
Market Dashboard
Chart Analysis / Live Chart
Working Thesis
MES1!
PMP – Thursday, July 23, 2026**
Wednesday’s session clarified the market’s immediate priorities.
The overnight weakness in MES and MNQ continued while VIX expanded sharply higher, but the volatility move became distorted late in the session. VIX briefly reached 19.49, swept the previous-week high, and then collapsed to approximately 16.64 into the close before reopening with another substantial gap higher.
That sequence tells us the market is not simply trending—it is repeatedly repricing geopolitical and earnings risk in both directions.
Today’s central question is:
Does the morning auction accept the renewed risk-off repricing, or does the market again reject elevated volatility after the overnight headline premium has been delivered?
Unlike Wednesday, the indices have now traded through several initial support levels. That shifts today’s focus away from predicting the first move and toward determining whether sellers can maintain acceptance inside higher-timeframe demand.
CNBC Headlines
Dow futures fall 300 points as Alphabet and Tesla slide, U.S. oil tops [amount redacted]
Equity futures are lower as investors respond to two simultaneous pressures:
- ▸Disappointing market reactions to Alphabet and Tesla’s results.
- ▸Another sharp rise in crude oil caused by escalating Middle East shipping risks.
Alphabet reported strong cloud growth, but investors focused on higher projected capital expenditures and concern over how quickly AI spending will translate into returns. Tesla also weakened after reporting negative free cash flow and continued heavy investment requirements. (Reuters)
U.S. oil tops [amount redacted]Brent above [amount redacted]after tankers struck off Saudi Arabia
Oil has become an increasingly direct equity-market catalyst.
Reported attacks on Saudi-linked tankers intensified fears that the conflict could spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Red Sea and other regional shipping routes. Brent approached [amount redacted]while WTI rose above [amount redacted]reinforcing inflation concerns and placing upward pressure on bond yields. (Reuters)
Overnight Headlines
- ▸Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are lower.
- ▸Alphabet and Tesla are both under pressure following earnings.
- ▸Investors remain concerned about the cost and commercial return of AI capital spending.
- ▸Oil prices have surged again following reported attacks on tankers near Saudi Arabia.
- ▸Higher energy prices are reviving inflation and interest-rate concerns.
- ▸Lockheed Martin and ServiceNow were among the companies receiving more favorable reactions after updating guidance.
- ▸Intel becomes the primary technology earnings event after Thursday’s close. (Reuters)
Economic Calendar
8:30 AM ET
🟠 Unemployment Claims
- ▸Forecast: 211K
- ▸Previous: 208K
Claims are the only meaningful scheduled U.S. economic release during the morning window.
A materially weaker labor reading could create two competing interpretations:
- ▸Initial support for equities through lower-rate expectations.
- ▸Additional pressure if investors interpret it as evidence that economic conditions are deteriorating while oil-driven inflation remains elevated.
A stronger-than-expected report may support growth expectations, but it could also reinforce the market’s concern that the Federal Reserve has less room to ease policy.
10:30 AM ET
🟡 Natural Gas Storage
- ▸Forecast: 29B
- ▸Previous: 41B
This is not normally a major equity-index catalyst, although energy markets are carrying more influence than usual.
Tentative
🟡 Treasury Currency Report
Earnings Calendar
Before the Open
- ▸American Airlines
- ▸Nokia
- ▸Huntington Bancshares
- ▸Freeport-McMoRan
- ▸Lockheed Martin
- ▸Blackstone
- ▸Tractor Supply
- ▸RTX
- ▸GE Aerospace
After the Close
- ▸Intel
- ▸MXL
- ▸Deckers
- ▸Newmont
- ▸Columbia Banking
- ▸Boyd Gaming
- ▸RingCentral
Intel is the most consequential postmarket release for MNQ.
The response to Alphabet and Tesla demonstrates that beating headline estimates may not be enough. Investors are scrutinizing:
- ▸Capital expenditure
- ▸Free cash flow
- ▸AI investment
- ▸Forward guidance
- ▸Evidence that spending is generating measurable returns
That may keep technology sentiment defensive even before Intel reports. (Reuters)
Weekly Context
The week began with equities attempting to stabilize following last week’s liquidation.
MNQ and MES recovered from Monday’s lows and pushed into Tuesday’s upper decision areas, but neither market established lasting acceptance above those levels.
Wednesday then produced a renewed rotation lower as:
- ▸VIX expanded.
- ▸Oil strengthened.
- ▸Earnings risk increased.
- ▸The indices failed to sustain their recoveries.
Thursday begins with the markets more clearly separated from their weekly highs:
- ▸MNQ has traded below Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s lower-range liquidity.
- ▸MES has returned to its daily bullish fair value gap.
- ▸VIX has reopened above Wednesday’s close after an extreme late-session reversal.
The market is now deciding whether this is merely another sweep into demand or the beginning of a broader weekly bearish expansion.
VIX Analysis
Current Price
~18.15–18.17
VIX produced an extreme repricing sequence Wednesday.
Price reached approximately 19.49, sweeping:
- ▸The weekly high
- ▸The previous-week high
- ▸The upper portion of the recent range
It then collapsed to approximately 16.64 before reopening Thursday near 17.67.
That created a large new-day opening gap:
- ▸High: 17.67
- ▸Midpoint: 17.15
- ▸Low: 16.64
Price has held the gap and expanded to approximately 18.32, completing the initial 0–1 leg into the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s opening gap.
The current decision is whether VIX can hold above 17.84–17.99 and continue higher, or reject 18.32 and rotate back through Thursday’s opening gap.
Bullish VIX Scenario
Bearish Equities
For VIX to continue supporting the bearish equity narrative, price must hold above:
- ▸Daily Open / Gap High: 17.67
- ▸Swing Support: ~17.84–17.99
- ▸Previous Day High area: 18.07
- ▸Current Daily High: 18.32
Above there, upside targets become:
- ▸Swing High: 18.69
- ▸Weekly Open: 18.90
- ▸Previous Week High / Weekly High: 19.49
- ▸Prior Week High: 19.50
Above 19.50, the next higher-timeframe order block is:
- ▸Low: 19.84
- ▸Midpoint: 20.06
- ▸High: 20.28
The most important condition is not merely VIX touching 18.32.
It must establish acceptance above that level and successfully defend the first pullback. Holding 17.84–17.99 after a retracement would keep the bullish volatility sequence intact.
Bearish VIX Scenario
Bullish Equities
VIX weakness begins if price rejects the current upper quadrant and loses:
- ▸17.99
- ▸Daily Open / NDOG High: 17.67
- ▸Swing Low: 17.51
- ▸Daily Low: 17.32
Below there:
- ▸Gap Midpoint: 17.15
- ▸Monthly Open: 17.11
- ▸Gap Low / Weekly Low: 16.64
The cleaner bearish volatility sequence would be:
- ▸Rejection from 18.32
- ▸Change in state of delivery below 17.99
- ▸Acceptance below 17.67
- ▸Failure to reclaim 17.51
- ▸Rotation through 17.32–17.15
That would create the conditions for MES and MNQ to recover from higher-timeframe demand.
MNQ Analysis
Current Price
~28,938–28,955
MNQ continued lower overnight and has now traded through Wednesday’s low.
Price is already within the initial downside expansion projected from the decision block. The first portion of the bearish move has therefore been delivered before the opening bell.
That makes today’s immediate question:
Can sellers establish acceptance below 28,913, or will the weekly opening area produce a reversal?
Bullish Structure
MNQ must first reclaim the area where the most recent bearish delivery accelerated.
Initial bullish requirements:
- ▸Reclaim Daily Low: ~28,913.25
- ▸Hold above 28,961.25
- ▸Reclaim Daily Open: 29,107.50
- ▸Break above 29,185.00
Higher bullish confirmation requires:
- ▸Daily High: 29,283.00
- ▸Weekly High / Relative Equal Highs: 29,363.50
- ▸Swing High: 29,532.00
Additional upside liquidity rests near:
- ▸29,644
- ▸29,700
- ▸Previous Day High: 29,796.50
A bounce from current price is not enough to declare MNQ bullish.
The market must invalidate the latest bearish decision block by reclaiming 29,107–29,185. Below those levels, any rally remains a retracement within bearish delivery.
Bearish Structure
Bearish continuation requires:
- ▸Acceptance below Daily Low: 28,913.25
- ▸Failure to reclaim 28,961.25
- ▸Continued displacement toward the Weekly Open
Primary downside targets:
- ▸Weekly Open: 28,747.50
- ▸Weekly Low: 28,700.00
- ▸Daily Bullish FVG High: 28,553.50
Below there:
- ▸Prior Week Low: 28,408.25
- ▸Daily FVG Upper Quadrant: 28,406.75
- ▸Daily FVG Midpoint: 28,260.00
- ▸Previous Day Low: 28,264.25
- ▸Previous Week Low: 28,227.25
- ▸Lower Quadrant: 28,113.25
- ▸Daily FVG Low: 27,966.50
The first complete bearish objective is the 28,747–28,700 zone.
The higher-timeframe draw becomes 28,553.50 if VIX holds above its opening gap and oil continues reinforcing risk-off conditions.
MES Analysis
Current Price
~7,494.75
MES has also extended Wednesday’s bearish move and is now trading within the daily bullish fair value gap.
The overnight decline broke below:
- ▸Wednesday’s daily low
- ▸The prior decision block
- ▸The one-hour bullish FVG midpoint area
Price is now approaching the weekly open and a dense cluster of sell-side liquidity.
Bullish Structure
For MES to reverse, price must first hold the current demand zone and reclaim the origin of the latest bearish expansion.
Initial bullish requirements:
- ▸Hold above Daily Low: ~7,490.00
- ▸Reclaim 7,504.25
- ▸Break above Swing High: 7,525.75
Further bullish confirmation requires:
- ▸Daily Open: 7,535.00
- ▸Swing High: 7,535.75
- ▸Monthly Open: 7,543.50
- ▸Daily High: 7,550.00
Above there, additional targets include:
- ▸Weekly High: 7,563.00
- ▸Previous Day High: 7,576
- ▸Higher 1H bearish order block near 7,586–7,590
The most important bullish level is 7,525.75.
That is the high associated with the latest bearish change in state of delivery. A close above it would begin invalidating the current downside structure.
Bearish Structure
MES remains bearish while price stays below:
- ▸7,504.25
- ▸Swing High: 7,525.75
- ▸Daily Open: 7,535.00
Immediate downside objectives:
- ▸Weekly Open: 7,484.50
- ▸Daily Bullish FVG High: 7,481.75
- ▸Weekly Low: 7,473.25
- ▸Previous Week Low: 7,473.00
- ▸Additional Previous Week Low: 7,468.25
- ▸Daily FVG Midpoint: 7,470.50
- ▸Daily FVG Low: 7,459.25
Below the fair value gap:
- ▸1H Order Block High: 7,443.00
The 7,481.75–7,468.25 region is the primary downside decision zone.
There are several overlapping liquidity points inside this area, so price could pierce the weekly lows even if the larger intention is eventually bullish.
Narrative Alignment
Thursday begins with strong risk-off alignment:
- ▸VIX is higher and holding above its opening gap.
- ▸MNQ has broken Wednesday’s low.
- ▸MES has broken Wednesday’s low.
- ▸Oil is above [amount redacted].
- ▸Alphabet and Tesla are under pressure.
- ▸Treasury yields are responding to renewed inflation concerns. (Reuters)
That supports a bearish opening expectation.
However, both indices are now approaching substantial higher-timeframe support:
MNQ
- ▸Weekly Open: 28,747.50
- ▸Weekly Low: 28,700.00
- ▸Daily FVG High: 28,553.50
MES
- ▸Weekly Open: 7,484.50
- ▸Daily FVG High: 7,481.75
- ▸Clustered Weekly Lows: 7,473.25–7,468.25
At the same time, VIX has already completed a significant portion of its initial upside expansion and is trading at a logical retracement area.
Therefore, the bearish narrative is valid—but chasing shorts directly into these levels would ignore the location of price.
The actual decision is:
Can VIX hold above 17.84–17.99 while MES and MNQ accept below weekly support, or does VIX reject 18.32 as the indices defend higher-timeframe demand?
Bullish Equity Narrative
A bullish reversal becomes valid when:
- ▸VIX rejects 18.32
- ▸VIX loses 17.99 and 17.67
- ▸MNQ defends 28,747–28,700
- ▸MNQ reclaims 28,961, then 29,107
- ▸MES defends 7,481–7,468
- ▸MES reclaims 7,504, then 7,525.75
Under this model, the overnight selloff represents:
- ▸An earnings repricing
- ▸A run on weekly sell-side liquidity
- ▸Delivery into higher-timeframe demand
- ▸A potential setup for a relief rally
Upside objectives become:
MNQ
- ▸28,961.25
- ▸29,107.50
- ▸29,185.00
- ▸29,283.00
- ▸29,363.50
MES
- ▸7,504.25
- ▸7,525.75
- ▸7,535.00
- ▸7,543.50
- ▸7,550.00
Bearish Equity Narrative
Bearish continuation becomes valid when:
- ▸VIX defends 17.84–17.99
- ▸VIX accepts above 18.32
- ▸MNQ accepts below 28,913
- ▸MNQ fails to reclaim 28,961
- ▸MES accepts below 7,481.75
- ▸MES fails to reclaim 7,504.25
Under this model, Wednesday’s recovery attempts represented distribution and Thursday begins the next leg of weekly bearish expansion.
Downside objectives become:
MNQ
- ▸28,747.50
- ▸28,700.00
- ▸28,553.50
- ▸28,408.25
- ▸28,260.00
MES
- ▸7,484.50
- ▸7,481.75
- ▸7,473.25
- ▸7,468.25
- ▸7,459.25
- ▸7,443.00
Trading Focus
Today’s edge comes from distinguishing between continuation and completion.
The market has already delivered a meaningful overnight move:
- ▸VIX has expanded.
- ▸MNQ has broken the previous day’s low.
- ▸MES has entered the daily bullish fair value gap.
That means the safest short is not necessarily available at the opening price.
For continuation, require:
- ▸Acceptance below support.
- ▸Failure to reclaim the latest decision block.
- ▸VIX holding its bullish structure after a pullback.
For reversal, require:
- ▸VIX rejection.
- ▸Equity displacement back above the bearish decision blocks.
- ▸Clear acceptance—not just a wick—above the reclaimed levels.
Daily Bias
Neutral to Bearish
The macro and intermarket structure initially favor sellers.
Oil, earnings reactions and VIX all support risk-off conditions. However, MES and MNQ are already trading into higher-timeframe demand and approaching the week’s more important downside objectives.
The bearish bias remains valid below the decision blocks, but the current location reduces the quality of chasing fresh shorts.
Bullish Confirmation
- ▸VIX rejects 18.32 and loses 17.67
- ▸MES defends 7,481–7,468
- ▸MES reclaims 7,504.25 and 7,525.75
- ▸MNQ defends 28,747–28,700
- ▸MNQ reclaims 28,961 and 29,107
- ▸Both indices establish bullish displacement after sweeping sell-side liquidity
Bearish Confirmation
- ▸VIX holds above 17.84–17.99
- ▸VIX accepts above 18.32
- ▸MES accepts beneath 7,481.75
- ▸MNQ accepts below 28,913
- ▸Oil remains elevated or produces another geopolitical expansion
- ▸Equity bounces fail beneath their most recent decision blocks
Trader’s Objective
- ▸Do not chase the completed overnight selloff.
- ▸Use unemployment claims as the first scheduled decision point.
- ▸Require acceptance below weekly support before entering continuation shorts.
- ▸Require displacement above the latest decision blocks before considering longs.
- ▸Monitor whether oil and VIX remain positively correlated after the opening bell.
- ▸Keep risk reduced while price is inside higher-timeframe demand.
- ▸Remember that Intel reports after the close and does not need to influence the morning auction.
- ▸Trade the reaction to the narrative—not the headline itself.
Overall Feedback
This PMP is one of the clearest examples of why your decision-block framework matters.
At first glance, the session appears obviously bearish:
- ▸VIX is up.
- ▸Oil is surging.
- ▸Tesla and Alphabet are falling.
- ▸MES and MNQ have broken their prior-day lows.
But your charts correctly show that the bearish move is approaching completion zones rather than beginning from premium.
The key levels are:
- ▸VIX: 17.84–17.99
- ▸MNQ: 28,747–28,700
- ▸MES: 7,481.75–7,468.25
Those are the areas where the market must prove whether the overnight move has continuation sponsorship.
The defining principle for today is:
A bearish narrative does not automatically create a high-quality short when price has already delivered into higher-timeframe demand.
Your job is not to predict whether the headlines are bad enough for another selloff.
Your job is to observe whether institutions continue accepting price below support after the initial repricing has already occurred.
Bias by Ticker
MES1! The overnight weakness in MES and MNQ continued while VIX expanded sharply higher, but the volatility move became distorted late in the session. VIX briefly reached 19.49, swept the previous-week high, and then…
The overnight weakness in MES and MNQ continued while VIX expanded sharply higher, but the volatility move became distorted late in the session. VIX briefly reached 19.49, swept the previous-week high, and then…
The overnight weakness in MES and MNQ continued while VIX expanded sharply higher, but the volatility move became distorted late in the session. VIX briefly reached 19.49, swept the previous-week high, and then…
Cory publishes the working thesis before the session, not after — this Playbook and Trade Review are part of that same documented process. No signals, no highlight reel.
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