2026-08-17

MES1!

Pre-Market Playbook — Monday, August 17, 2026

Market Context

We’re starting the week relatively muted after the S&P 500 completed a three-week winning streak. Unlike last week, the scheduled economic calendar is light, which means headline risk—particularly U.S./Iran developments and the Strait of Hormuz—is likely to matter more than scheduled data.

The two major themes this morning are:

• ▸Stock futures are starting the week softer following the S&P’s three consecutive winning weeks.
• ▸Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen dramatically ahead of the scheduled expiration of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Only five vessels reportedly passed through Saturday versus 31 the previous week.
• ▸At the same time, reports from Al Arabiya indicate a possible agreement to extend the 60-day period between Iran and the U.S.
• ▸Additional Trump/Iran headlines are crossing the wires, so the geopolitical picture remains fluid and somewhat conflicting.

That makes this a session where I want to be especially careful about reacting to sudden headline-driven candles.

CNBC — Stock futures fall after S&P 500 posts three-week win streak

CNBC — Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry

Economic Calendar

There are no major red-folder releases today.

8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Index

• ▸Forecast: 10.6
• ▸Previous: 15.6

10:00 AM — NAHB Housing Market Index

• ▸Forecast: 33
• ▸Previous: 34

4:00 PM — TIC Long-Term Purchases

• ▸Forecast: 151.4B
• ▸Previous: 232.7B

Looking farther into the week, the calendar becomes more important. FOMC Meeting Minutes arrive Wednesday at 2:00 PM, followed Thursday by Philly Fed Manufacturing and Unemployment Claims.

So today, the scheduled calendar isn't the main event. Iran/Hormuz headlines are.

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Earnings This Week

This is primarily a consumer and retail earnings week, which should provide another look at the health of the consumer.

Tuesday brings Home Depot before the open, along with names including Baidu and Klarna, while Wednesday has Target, TJX and Lowe's before the bell.

Thursday is another important consumer day with Walmart and Alibaba before the open and Ross after the close. BJ's Wholesale reports Friday morning.

I'm not necessarily expecting these individual reports to dictate today's index direction, but collectively they can provide useful information about consumer strength and spending trends.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current Price: ~14.91 Daily Open: 14.98 Daily High: 15.00 Daily Low: ~14.89 Yearly Open: 14.85

VIX opened the week higher and created a new opening gap.

New Week Opening Gap

14.98 — NWOG High 14.61 — NWOG Midpoint 14.25 — NWOG Low

We're currently sitting around the upper portion of that gap and just above the 14.85 yearly opening price.

That makes this opening area extremely important.

VIX Downside Scenario

If volatility starts moving lower, I want:

14.89 Daily Low → 14.85 Yearly Open → ~14.80 quarter level → 14.61 NWOG Midpoint

If volatility continues compressing:

14.53 quarter level → 14.25 NWOG Low

Below there, we return to the familiar daily bullish volume-imbalance area:

14.20 VIB High 14.16 VIB Midpoint 14.12 VIB Low

Continued VIX acceptance lower would support the bullish index scenario.

VIX Upside Scenario

If VIX instead holds this area and expands:

14.98 Daily Open / NWOG High → 15.00 Daily High → 15.15 prior NWOG Midpoint → 15.40 prior NWOG High → ~15.42 prior high

Above there sits another important upside objective:

15.59 — 1H FVG Low

A sustained move through 15.15–15.40 would materially change how I view risk on the indices.

VIX Decision

Below 14.85: favor volatility compression and watch for index strength.

Above 15.00: volatility is showing strength.

Above 15.15–15.40: respect the possibility of a more meaningful risk-off move.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current Price: ~30,299.50 Daily High: 30,339.75 Pre-Market Swing Low: ~30,260 Daily/Weekly Open: 30,168.50

MNQ sold off Friday to approximately 30,025, but has recovered strongly and is now trading back around 30,300.

We're essentially consolidating between the pre-market high and low.

MNQ Bullish Scenario

First objective:

30,339.75 — Daily High

If that gets taken and price accepts higher:

30,435.50 — Prior Swing High

Then I want to see expansion toward the larger external liquidity:

~30,600 — Previous Week High

Beyond that, the chart opens the possibility of eventually challenging the ATH.

So my bullish progression is:

30,339.75 → 30,435.50 → ~30,600 → ATH

I don't want to chase a simple sweep of 30,339. I want to see whether MNQ can actually establish delivery above the current range.

MNQ Bearish Scenario

If we reject the highs:

~30,260 — Pre-Market Swing Low

Then:

~30,185.75 — Tokyo/Asia Swing Low

Below there:

30,168.50 — Daily/Weekly Open

That brings us directly toward the existing 4H bullish FVG:

30,104.00 — FVG High 30,005.00 — FVG Midpoint 29,905.75 — FVG Low

Friday's low at approximately:

30,025

sits inside that imbalance.

So if MNQ loses the weekly opening structure, I'm watching:

30,168.50 → 30,104 → 30,025 → 30,005 → 29,905.75

That gives us a very clean downside draw.

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current Price: ~7,815.50 Pre-Market High: 7,824.75 Pre-Market Low: 7,812.75 Daily/Weekly Open: 7,809.00 ATH: 7,838.50

MES is also consolidating.

The immediate pre-market range is:

7,812.75–7,824.75

We've already taken the London high around 7,821.25 and traded back into the range, so now I want to see which side of this consolidation actually delivers.

MES Bullish Scenario

First:

7,824.75 — Daily/Pre-Market High

Then:

7,832.00 — Friday High

And immediately beyond that:

7,838.50 — ATH

Acceptance above the ATH opens:

7,850 → 7,875

That's my clean bullish ladder.

I don't want to anticipate the ATH break. Let price take the nearby liquidity first and prove that it can sustain delivery higher.

MES Bearish Scenario

If MES breaks the other side of the pre-market range:

7,812.75 — Pre-Market Low

Then:

7,809.00 — Daily/Weekly Open

Below there:

7,806.25 — Asia Swing Low → 7,804.25 — Daily Low → 7,796.50 — Friday / Previous Day Low

If selling becomes more aggressive, approximately:

7,788.50

becomes another downside objective.

So my bearish ladder is:

7,812.75 → 7,809 → 7,806.25 → 7,804.25 → 7,796.50 → ~7,788.50

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Intermarket Scenarios

Bullish Index Scenario

The cleanest bullish alignment would be VIX losing 14.85 and working through its new-week gap toward 14.61, while MNQ breaks 30,339.75 and MES takes 7,824.75.

From there:

MNQ: 30,435 → 30,600 MES: 7,832 → 7,838.50 ATH → 7,850+

The stronger VIX compression becomes, the more comfortable I am with index continuation.

Bearish Index Scenario

The bearish setup becomes much more compelling if VIX holds the yearly open, takes 15.00, and begins working toward 15.15–15.40.

At the same time:

MNQ: loses 30,260 → 30,185 → 30,168.50.

MES: loses 7,812.75 → 7,809 → 7,804.25.

That would put both indices back on course toward their deeper downside liquidity.

The key is confirmation across markets rather than predicting the move from one chart.

High Post

Today isn't a day where I need to manufacture a trade.

We're beginning a new week after the S&P has already produced three consecutive winning weeks, scheduled economic catalysts are limited, and geopolitical headlines can hit the tape without warning.

So patience matters.

VIX is sitting at a decision point near 14.85–15.00.

MNQ is consolidating around 30,300 with 30,339.75 immediately overhead.

MES is trapped inside 7,812.75–7,824.75 with the 7,838.50 ATH sitting just above it.

Those ranges give me my roadmap.

I want to let the market show its hand first.

If volatility compresses and the indices take their pre-market highs, I can look for continuation toward external buy-side liquidity.

If VIX expands while MNQ and MES lose their opening structures, I can look toward the downside liquidity and imbalances.

And because the Iran/Hormuz situation remains fluid, a sudden headline candle is not automatically a trade signal. I want to see the liquidity event, displacement, and subsequent change in state of delivery before getting involved.

Sit on my hands until price confirms. No chasing. No forcing Monday. Trade the roadmap—not the headline.