2026-08-25

MES1!

Pre-Market Playbook — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Market Context

We’re coming into Tuesday with a somewhat constructive tone in equity futures, but this is a week where scheduled catalysts and geopolitical headlines can quickly override the technical picture.

The two major themes are Nvidia earnings Wednesday after the close and the continuing U.S.–Iran conflict, particularly the Trump administration’s effort to pressure Iran’s trade relationships. China, the UAE, Turkey, Iraq, and India are among Iran’s important trading partners, making any escalation in secondary sanctions relevant beyond Iran itself.

Oil remains worth keeping in the background as another confirmation signal for geopolitical risk.

CNBC — Stock futures rise as investors await Nvidia earnings and inflation data

CNBC — Trump targets Iran's trade lifelines

The technical setup is interesting because both MNQ and MES are already delivering higher in their initial 0→1 moves, while VIX remains compressed around the lower portion of its current range. That gives equities room to continue higher, but the next retracements should tell us whether this is genuine continuation or simply a run into overhead liquidity.

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Economic Calendar

There are no red-folder releases today, but we do have several events capable of generating localized volatility.

8:15 AM — ADP Weekly Employment Change

• ▸Previous: 9.5K

8:30 AM — FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

9:00 AM

• ▸HPI m/m: 0.2% forecast / 0.3% previous
• ▸S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y: 1.8% forecast / 1.6% previous

10:00 AM

• ▸CB Consumer Confidence: 90.3 forecast / 90.8 previous
• ▸New Home Sales: 620K forecast / 628K previous
• ▸Richmond Manufacturing Index: 6 forecast / 5 previous

4:00 PM — FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

The 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence release is the most important scheduled data point for the cash session.

The larger scheduled catalysts arrive later in the week with Nvidia and the inflation report.

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Earnings

The main event this week is clearly Nvidia Wednesday after the close.

Other notable reports include:

Tuesday: Dick's Sporting Goods, Scotiabank, Intuit, Zoom Wednesday: Kohl's, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta, Synopsys Thursday: Best Buy, TD Bank, Dollar General, Affirm, Ulta, Workday Friday: MINISO and Chagee

Nvidia is the one that matters most for the broader indices, particularly NQ. Until then, positioning ahead of the report could influence technology-sector price action.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current Price: ~15.76 Daily Low: 15.69 Daily High: 15.88 Weekly Open / NWOG High: 15.90

VIX is sitting in a relatively tight range.

More importantly, we're currently trading inside the New Week Opening Gap:

15.90 — NWOG High 15.71 — 75% area 15.52 — NWOG Midpoint 15.30 — 25% area 15.13 — NWOG Low

Price has already tested approximately 15.71, so this is a very clean decision structure.

VIX Upside Scenario

The first requirement is:

15.90 — Weekly Open / NWOG High

If price can reclaim and hold above 15.90:

16.03 — Monthly Open area → 16.06 — Weekly High → 16.14/16.16 — Prior High / Order Block

The larger target becomes:

16.46 — 1H Order Block Midpoint

If volatility really expands through that area, approximately 16.67 becomes the next upside objective.

So:

15.90 → 16.06 → 16.14/16.16 → 16.46 → 16.67

That would be the scenario where I become increasingly cautious about equity longs.

VIX Downside Scenario

Failure to reclaim 15.90 keeps the lower portion of the NWOG in play.

First:

15.71 — Daily Open / NWOG 75%

Then:

15.61 — Weekly Low → 15.52 — NWOG Midpoint → 15.30 — NWOG 25%

Below there is an important confluence:

15.13–15.08 — NWOG Low / Previous Day Low

And if volatility really compresses:

14.98 → 14.80

That would provide increasingly strong confirmation for continued upside delivery in equities.

VIX Decision

Above 15.90: volatility expansion becomes more likely.

15.71–15.90: neutral/decision area.

Below 15.71: favors compression toward 15.52.

Below 15.52: increasingly supportive of equity upside.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current Price: ~29,352–29,378 Weekly Open: ~29,339.25 Daily High: ~29,420 Pre-Market Swing Low: ~29,210

MNQ has already started its 0→1 move higher.

We've taken out the earlier swing high and traded into the weekly opening area. So I'm not trying to initiate a move after it's already happened.

The next question is what happens during the 1→2 retracement.

MNQ Bullish Scenario

The first thing I want is sustained acceptance above approximately:

29,339–29,400 — Weekly Open / Current Resistance Area

Then I want the daily high cleared.

Above that:

29,480.50 — Weekly High

Then:

29,583 — Swing High

And the larger upside target:

29,688.50 — Previous Day High

So:

Weekly Open → Daily High → 29,480.50 → 29,583 → 29,688.50

If we get that sequence while VIX is moving toward 15.52 or lower, the intermarket picture becomes significantly stronger.

MNQ Bearish Scenario

If the current 0→1 move fails, I'm looking for price to work back through:

29,210 — Pre-Market Swing Low

Then:

~29,140 — Daily Open

Below there:

~29,016.75 — Daily Low → 28,947.50 — Weekly Low → 28,831.50 — Previous Day Low

That's my primary downside objective.

So:

29,210 → 29,140 → 29,016.75 → 28,947.50 → 28,831.50

There are deeper objectives available, including the NWOG structure around 28,567.50–28,425.75, but those aren't my primary expectation yet.

I want price to prove that today's recovery has actually failed before focusing on them.

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current Price: ~7,700–7,704 Weekly Open: ~7,693.75 Monday High: ~7,703.25 Friday High: 7,714.00 Pre-Market Swing Low: ~7,693.00

MES is also already in its 0→1 move higher.

We've taken:

7,686.50 swing high → Weekly Open → Monday's High

and traded into approximately:

7,714 — Friday's High

That means we've already collected a meaningful amount of nearby buy-side liquidity.

MES Bullish Scenario

For continuation, I want price holding above:

7,693–7,703

That's the immediate support/acceptance area.

Then I want another push through:

7,714

Above that:

7,719.75 — Swing High

Then:

7,733.50 — Swing High

And finally:

7,746 — Previous Day High

So the upside ladder is:

7,703 → 7,714 → 7,719.75 → 7,733.50 → 7,746

We're pushing into an order-block area from last Wednesday, so I'm expecting some resistance rather than assuming price simply slices through everything.

MES Bearish Scenario

The first warning would be losing:

7,693 — Pre-Market Low / Weekly Open Area

Then:

7,680.50 — London Swing Low

Followed by:

7,675 — Daily Open

Then:

7,668.50 → 7,660.25 — Daily Low → 7,655 — Weekly Low

Approximately 7,650 is where I'd begin looking much more carefully for a response.

Only if that area fails do I start emphasizing:

7,631.75 → 7,628.75

So the primary bearish ladder is:

7,693 → 7,680.50 → 7,675 → 7,668.50 → 7,660.25 → 7,655/7,650

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Intermarket Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Bullish Continuation

This is probably today's cleanest risk-on alignment.

VIX: rejects 15.90 and loses 15.71 → 15.61 → 15.52

MNQ: holds/reclaims the weekly opening area and pushes through the daily high toward 29,480.50 → 29,583

MES: holds 7,693–7,703 and pushes through 7,714 → 7,719.75

That gives me confirmation that the current 0→1 equity moves are developing into larger bullish sequences.

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Scenario 2 — Failed Rally / Risk-Off Reversal

Watch VIX closely.

VIX: reclaims 15.90 → 16.06 → 16.14/16.16

At the same time:

MNQ: loses 29,210 → 29,140

and:

MES: loses 7,693 → 7,680.50 → 7,675

That's a much cleaner bearish alignment.

The larger objectives then become approximately:

MNQ → 29,016.75 → 28,947.50 → 28,831.50

MES → 7,660.25 → 7,655/7,650

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Scenario 3 — 1→2 Retracement Before Continuation

This is the scenario I especially want to keep in mind because MNQ and MES have already made their initial upside moves.

A pullback by itself does not make the market bearish.

If MNQ retraces but holds above its important morning lows, MES holds around the weekly-open structure, and VIX fails to establish above 15.90, that pullback could simply establish the 1→2 before another 2→3 expansion higher.

That's substantially different from chasing the market at the top of the 0→1 move.

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High Post

Today's setup is less about predicting whether the market is bullish or bearish and more about determining whether this morning's initial equity strength earns continuation.

Both MNQ and MES have already pushed higher.

That's important.

It means I don't need to chase the first move.

VIX 15.90 is one of my biggest tells. Below it, volatility remains contained. A move through 15.71 → 15.52 would increasingly support equities.

For MNQ, I want to see whether price can turn the weekly opening area into support and eventually attack 29,480.50.

For MES, the battle is around 7,693–7,703, with 7,714 → 7,719.75 → 7,733.50 sitting overhead.

The geopolitical backdrop means that none of these technical structures exist in a vacuum. A fresh Iran headline can rapidly change volatility, oil, and equity positioning. Nvidia tomorrow also gives the market a reason to avoid fully committing ahead of the report.

So I don't need to anticipate the 2→3.

I need to see the 1→2 first.

Today's reminder:

The first move gives me information. The retracement tells me whether I should trust it.