2026-08-26

MES1!

Pre-Market Playbook — Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Market Context

Wednesday is a catalyst-heavy session, and patience matters more than prediction.

Equity futures are little changed ahead of two major events: the 8:30 AM inflation/GDP data and Nvidia earnings after the close. That creates a reasonable setup for an initial reaction around the economic release and cash open, followed by potentially slower or more rotational trading as positioning settles ahead of Nvidia.

CNBC — Stock futures little changed ahead of inflation data and Nvidia earnings

Geopolitics remain the other wildcard. The supplied headlines indicate Iran has shifted its military doctrine toward a more offensive posture, while separate reporting says Iran and Oman are working toward a Hormuz agreement as the U.S. holds back on secondary sanctions. That leaves us with the same headline-sensitive environment we've been dealing with: developments can quickly affect oil, volatility, and index futures.

CNBC — Iran and Oman prepare Hormuz deal as U.S. holds back on secondary sanctions

Technically, VIX, MNQ, and MES are all sitting in relatively compressed ranges going into the catalysts. There is no reason to force a directional call before the market shows its hand.

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Economic Calendar

8:30 AM — Major Release Window

Core PCE Price Index m/m

• ▸Forecast: 0.2%
• ▸Previous: 0.1%

Preliminary GDP q/q

• ▸Forecast: 1.5%
• ▸Previous: 1.5%

Preliminary GDP Price Index q/q

• ▸Forecast: 6.2%
• ▸Previous: 6.2%

Also at 8:30:

• ▸Core Durable Goods Orders m/m: 0.6% forecast / 0.7% previous
• ▸Durable Goods Orders m/m: 0.4% / 0.5%
• ▸Personal Income m/m: 0.2% / 0.2%
• ▸Personal Spending m/m: 0.1% / 0.3%

Later:

10:30 AM — Crude Oil Inventories

• ▸Forecast: 1.6M
• ▸Previous: 4.4M

11:45 AM — FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

Primary Catalyst

8:30 is the event.

There are enough simultaneous releases that the first move could be violent or contradictory. I don't need to guess the number, and I don't need to chase the first candle.

I want the data to hit, let the market establish displacement, and then determine whether that move is actually being accepted.

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Nvidia

Nvidia reports after today's close.

That's the other major event hanging over the session.

Because Nvidia has such an outsized influence on the Nasdaq and broader AI/semiconductor complex, positioning ahead of earnings could suppress follow-through later in the session.

So there are effectively two different environments today:

Morning: PCE/GDP-driven.

Afternoon: increasingly Nvidia-positioning-driven.

That gives me another reason not to overtrade a midday range if the morning opportunity has already occurred.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current Price: ~15.69–15.74

VIX has essentially gone nowhere overnight.

We have:

Daily Low: ~15.64 Daily High: ~15.74 Daily Open / NDOG High: 15.65

Yesterday established a much larger range:

Weekly High: 16.30 Weekly Low: 15.13

So we're currently sitting near the middle of that broader structure.

VIX Upside Scenario

For volatility expansion, I first want VIX holding above:

15.65 — Daily Opening Area

Then:

15.74 — Daily High

Above there, approximately 15.80 becomes another short-term level before:

15.90 — Weekly Open / NWOG High

That is one of today's primary decision levels.

Acceptance above 15.90 puts us into:

16.03 — Monthly Open

and then:

16.30 — Weekly High

So:

15.74 → 15.80 → 15.90 → 16.03 → 16.30

A clean VIX expansion through 15.90–16.03, particularly if MNQ and MES are simultaneously losing their morning lows, would materially strengthen the bearish equity case.

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VIX Downside Scenario

Failure around the current area opens the gap below.

First:

15.65 — Daily Open

Then:

~15.55 → ~15.45/15.41

Below there:

15.30 — NWOG 25%

Then the critical lower objective:

15.13 — Weekly Low / NWOG Low

Immediately underneath sits:

15.08 — Previous Day Low

So the downside ladder is:

15.65 → 15.55/15.45 → 15.30 → 15.13 → 15.08

If VIX is trading through 15.30 toward 15.13 while the indices reclaim their opening prices, that would be strong confirmation of risk-on conditions.

VIX Decision

Above 15.90: increasingly risk-off.

15.65–15.90: neutral/decision area.

Below 15.65: volatility compression developing.

Below 15.30: increasingly supportive of equity continuation higher.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current Price: ~29,193–29,242 Daily Open: 29,288.75

MNQ remains in a range and is currently trading below the daily opening price.

That means I don't have a reason to assume upside continuation yet.

MNQ Bullish Scenario

First I want price back through:

29,288.75 — Daily Open

Then:

29,313.25 — Short-Term Swing High

Acceptance above there brings us toward:

29,392.25 — Weekly Open

Then:

29,420 — Previous Day High

Above that:

29,480.50 — Weekly High

Then:

29,533.75 — Previous Day High

and:

29,583 — Swing High

So the bullish ladder is:

29,288.75 → 29,313.25 → 29,392.25 → 29,420 → 29,480.50 → 29,533.75 → 29,583

The strongest version of this setup would be MNQ reclaiming the daily and weekly opens while VIX loses 15.65 → 15.55 → 15.30.

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MNQ Bearish Scenario

The first downside liquidity is very close.

29,185.50 — Short-Term Low

If that goes:

29,095.50 — Daily Low

Then:

29,016.75 — Previous Day Low

followed by:

28,947.75 — Weekly Low

That's an important area.

If the weekly low cannot generate meaningful support, the next objectives become:

28,831.50 — Previous Day Low

and potentially:

~28,700.50

Below there, we begin getting much closer to the larger NWOG structure:

28,567.50 — NWOG High 28,425.75 — NWOG Midpoint 28,284 — NWOG Low

Those are deeper targets, not my first expectation.

The immediate bearish sequence is:

29,185.50 → 29,095.50 → 29,016.75 → 28,947.75 → 28,831.50

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current Price: ~7,682–7,688 Daily Open: 7,691.50 Weekly Open: 7,693.75

MES has an especially clean decision area because the daily and weekly opening prices are stacked almost directly together.

We're currently underneath both.

MES Bullish Scenario

First:

7,691.50–7,693.75 — Daily + Weekly Opens

Then:

7,696 — Short-Term High

Acceptance above that structure starts opening the path toward:

7,714 — Weekly High

Then:

7,719.75 — Swing High

Above that:

7,733.50 — Swing High

and finally:

7,746 — Previous Day High

So:

7,691.50–7,693.75 → 7,696 → 7,714 → 7,719.75 → 7,733.50 → 7,746

The 7,714–7,720 area is particularly important because there is multiple liquidity/structure sitting there.

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MES Bearish Scenario

Failure below the opening prices keeps the downside open.

First:

7,680.50 — Swing Low

Then:

7,670.75 — Daily Low

Below there:

7,660.25 — Previous Day Low

Then:

7,655 — Weekly Low

If 7,655 fails, we open the deeper downside:

7,631.75 — Swing Low

and:

7,628.75 — Previous Day Low

So:

7,680.50 → 7,670.75 → 7,660.25 → 7,655 → 7,631.75 → 7,628.75

That's a very straightforward roadmap.

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Intermarket Scenarios

Bullish Expansion

The clean bullish alignment would be:

VIX: loses 15.65 → 15.55 → 15.30

MNQ: reclaims 29,288.75 → 29,313.25 → 29,392.25

MES: reclaims 7,691.50–7,693.75 → 7,696

Then I'm looking for:

MNQ → 29,420 → 29,480.50

MES → 7,714 → 7,719.75

If those moves occur simultaneously, we have much better evidence that PCE produced genuine risk-on repricing rather than simply an opening liquidity run.

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Bearish Expansion

The clean bearish alignment is the opposite.

VIX: clears 15.74 → 15.90 → 16.03

MNQ: breaks 29,185.50 → 29,095.50

MES: breaks 7,680.50 → 7,670.75

Then:

MNQ → 29,016.75 → 28,947.75

MES → 7,660.25 → 7,655

If VIX eventually attacks 16.30, I'd be very careful fading index weakness.

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Data Whipsaw

This may be the most important scenario today.

PCE and GDP are arriving together with several secondary economic releases. We can therefore get:

initial displacement → liquidity sweep → complete reversal.

So I don't want to define today's bias from the first 8:30 candle.

The more valuable information will be:

Where does price trade after the initial reaction?

Can MNQ hold above or below 29,288.75?

Can MES establish above or below 7,691.50–7,693.75?

Can VIX establish above or below 15.65, and eventually 15.90?

Those levels should tell us considerably more than the first reaction to the numbers.

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High Post

Today is not a day where I need to press buttons early.

We have PCE + GDP at 8:30, followed by the cash open, and then Nvidia after the close. Add Iran/Hormuz headline risk and there are multiple ways for an apparently clean setup to get repriced quickly.

The market is also giving us unusually clean decision levels.

For VIX:

15.65 and 15.90

For MNQ:

29,185.50 below / 29,288.75–29,313.25 above

For MES:

7,680.50 below / 7,691.50–7,693.75 above

I don't need to decide beforehand which side wins.

I want the economic data to hit, let the initial volatility clear, and then see which side of those levels the market is actually willing to deliver from.

And because Nvidia reports tonight, if we get the clean morning move and the market subsequently stalls, there is nothing wrong with being done.

Today's reminder:

Let the catalyst create the range. Let price tell me which side of the range matters.