2026-09-10

MES1!

Pre-Market Playbook — Thursday, September 10, 2026

Market Context

Today is a much more catalyst-heavy session than yesterday.

The immediate focus is the 8:30 AM ET inflation and labor-data release, with Core PPI, headline PPI, and unemployment claims all hitting at the same time. Oil is also pushing higher again, while the Iran/Hormuz story remains active in the background.

The main CNBC headline is:

S&P 500 futures are flat as oil prices gain, traders brace for inflation data

We also have a new Iran-related headline stating that Iran has temporarily suspended the 10% freight charge on foreign vessels carrying energy products to or from Iran. That potentially eases one piece of the energy-shipping pressure, but it does not remove the broader geopolitical risk surrounding Hormuz.

Another headline circulating today is Trump proposing a [amount redacted] “dividend” for U.S. citizens contingent on Republicans winning the midterms. For today's session, I view that as secondary political/fiscal discussion rather than a primary intraday catalyst. The immediate market drivers remain PPI, claims, oil, yields, and geopolitical headlines.

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Economic Calendar

8:30 AM ET — Major Catalyst

Core PPI m/m Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 0.2%

PPI m/m Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.0%

Unemployment Claims Forecast: 205K Previous: 206K

10:00 AM ET

Existing Home Sales Forecast: 3.98M Previous: 4.06M

There are additional releases later in the session, but the real volatility event for my trading window is clearly 8:30.

Because price is already moving before the release, I am not interested in predicting the number. I want to let the news establish the first real post-release state of delivery and then trade the reaction.

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Intermarket Read

The overnight picture is currently leaning risk-off:

VIX: pushing higher DXY: pushing higher Gold: pushing lower MNQ: pushing lower MES: pushing lower Oil: elevated

That relationship is considerably cleaner than some of the mixed correlations we have dealt with recently.

The question after 8:30 is whether the data confirms the overnight move or forces a repricing in the opposite direction.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current Price: ~16.68

VIX has expanded significantly overnight and is trading near the high of the week.

Current Structure

Daily Open: 16.31 Daily Low: 16.29 Weekly High / Current High: ~16.70

There is very little downside structure beneath the current move because VIX has essentially pushed upward from the open without giving us much of a retracement.

Bullish VIX Scenario

If VIX continues higher, the first target is simply:

16.70 — Weekly High

Then:

16.82 — Previous Week High

Above that:

17.11 — Quarterly Open

That is my primary upside objective for now.

A clean push through 16.82 toward 17.11 would support continued pressure on MES and MNQ.

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VIX Pullback Scenario

If VIX begins retracing after the data, the first major level is:

16.31 — Daily Open

Then:

16.15 — Prior Swing Low

Below that, price enters the 1H bullish FVG:

16.05 — High 15.98 — Midpoint 15.91 — Low

That zone becomes extremely important.

If VIX pulls back into 16.05–15.91 and holds, that could simply represent a 1→2 retracement before volatility expands again.

If VIX accepts beneath 15.91, that would materially weaken the immediate risk-off narrative.

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DXY — Dollar Context

Current Price: ~98.91

The Dollar Index has reversed yesterday's weakness and is now pushing higher.

Price has already taken:

98.922 — Prior Swing High

Current daily high is approximately:

98.943

The next major upside liquidity is:

99.018 — Tuesday High / Previous Day High

The important intraday reference below is the daily open around:

98.755

With the daily low around:

98.706

I am not using DXY as a standalone trade today, but continued dollar strength alongside rising VIX would reinforce pressure on equities and gold.

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Gold — Context

Gold is displaying the inverse behavior I would expect while DXY strengthens.

Current Price: ~4,423

Gold sold off from an overnight high around:

4,479.3

There has been a bearish 1H state change around:

4,451.4

Daily open:

4,447.5

Price has already taken a swing low around:

4,419.2

Current daily low is approximately:

4,417.1

The next liquidity level I am watching is:

4,414.1

If that fails, the larger objective becomes:

4,384.3 — Weekly Low

For a bullish recovery, I would first need to see gold reclaim its nearby swing structure and recover above the daily opening price.

Again, this is context rather than something I want to chase after the overnight extension.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current Price: ~29,303

MNQ remains inside the Daily Bullish FVG we have been tracking:

Daily Bullish FVG

29,468.25 — High 29,340.50 — Midpoint 29,212.50 — Low

Price has already traded below the midpoint and taken yesterday's low around:

29,332.50

Current low is approximately:

29,290.50

At this point, the overnight downside move is already well underway.

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MNQ Bearish Scenario

My first expectation is that price finishes working through this Daily FVG.

The immediate target is:

29,212.50 — Daily FVG Low

Below there:

29,075 — Previous Day Low

Then:

28,927.25 — Previous Week Low

And if downside expansion becomes aggressive:

28,831.50 — Previous Day Low

This is where I have to be careful.

The bearish narrative is clear, but the entry location is not because price is already extended.

I do not want to sell simply because MNQ is lower.

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MNQ Bullish / Retracement Scenario

For a meaningful recovery, I first need to see MNQ reclaim:

29,340.50 — Daily FVG Midpoint

Then clear the bearish state-change area around:

~29,392

A bullish CISD through that area would be much more meaningful.

Above there:

29,460.25 — Daily Open

29,468.25 — Daily FVG High

29,508.25 — Daily High

Then the opening-price cluster:

29,518.50 — Monthly Open

29,534.50 — Weekly Open

Above that:

29,634 — Previous Day High

29,686.75 — Swing High

29,764.75 — Weekly High

That takes us into the larger Daily Bearish FVG:

29,759 — Low 29,906.25 — Midpoint 30,053.25 — High

A retracement into the opening-price cluster followed by failure could become a much cleaner short than chasing current prices.

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MES — S&P 500 Playbook

Current Price: ~7,638

MES is also continuing yesterday's downside expansion.

Current Structure

Daily Open: ~7,647 Daily High: ~7,666.50

There is a bearish change of state around:

~7,647.50

Price is now approaching one of the most important downside liquidity areas on the chart.

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MES Bearish Scenario

Immediate downside target:

7,628.75 — Weekly Low

This lines up almost exactly with:

7,629.25 — Weekly Bullish FVG Midpoint

That makes 7,628–7,629 a major decision zone.

If price cannot stabilize there:

7,618.50 — Previous Week Low

Then:

7,600

Then approximately:

7,590

And if the move becomes significantly more aggressive:

~7,574 — Lower portion / 25% region of Weekly Bullish FVG

The most important thing is that the weekly FVG is already providing a logical downside draw.

I do not need to invent targets far underneath it before seeing how price responds.

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MES Bullish / Retracement Scenario

For upside, I first need MES to reclaim:

7,647–7,647.50 — Daily Open / Bearish CISD area

More importantly, I want an actual bullish state change through that zone, not simply a wick above it.

Then:

7,666.50 — Daily High

That moves us into the nearby 1H bearish FVG:

~7,665.25 — Low ~7,671.75 — Midpoint ~7,678 — High

Above that:

7,684.25 — ~75% level of Weekly Bullish FVG

Then:

7,691.50 — Previous Day High

Near:

7,691.25 — Inverted Daily FVG Low

At that point, the retracement would already be substantial.

If price continues:

7,701 — Monthly Open

7,715.25 — Weekly Open

Those are upper objectives, but I do not need to assume we reach them today.

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Primary A+ Scenario

The cleaner setup today is not simply:

PPI comes out → market moves → jump in.

The setup I want is:

News creates displacement → liquidity is taken → state of delivery becomes clear → retracement → confirmation.

For bearish continuation, the ideal synchronized picture would be:

VIX: holds elevated or retraces into support and resumes higher DXY: holds strength Gold: remains heavy MNQ: retraces and fails beneath reclaimed resistance MES: retraces and fails beneath its bearish state-change/FVG zone

That is significantly better than shorting an already-extended overnight move.

The bullish reversal scenario requires the opposite:

VIX loses the 16.31 area and begins moving toward the 1H FVG MNQ reclaims 29,340.50 and ultimately 29,468.25 MES reclaims 7,647 and establishes bullish delivery above it

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High Post

Today has a legitimate catalyst, but that does not mean I need to be aggressive.

PPI and claims are hitting at 8:30, and both MES and MNQ are already moving lower while VIX and the dollar are moving higher.

That means I am entering the release with an established overnight narrative, but the data can either validate that narrative or completely reprice it.

So my job is not to predict PPI.

My job is to identify whether the reaction produces:

continuation of the existing bearish state,

or

a failure of that state and a true reversal.

The most important levels for me are:

VIX: 16.70 → 16.82 → 17.11 / 16.31 → 16.05–15.91 MNQ: 29,340.50 → 29,212.50 → 29,075 MES: 7,647 → 7,629 → 7,618.50

The overnight structure favors the downside in equities, but location matters more than bias.

I will let 8:30 move the market first.

Current posture: bearish narrative, extended entry location, wait for confirmation and retracement before pressing risk.