2026-09-11

DXY

Pre-Market Playbook — Friday, September 11, 2026

Market Context

Friday begins with a very different tone from Thursday. Equity futures are attempting to rebound as oil prices retreat from the latest surge, with Dow futures up more than 200 points ahead of the cash session. That gives equities some immediate relief, but 8:30 AM CPI is the event that matters. The overnight move should therefore be treated as positioning rather than confirmation of the day's direction.

CNBC — Dow futures jump more than 200 points as oil prices slide; consumer inflation data ahead

The inflation backdrop remains complicated by energy. U.S. diesel has now moved above [amount redacted]per gallon nationally for the first time, with CNBC reporting an average around [amount redacted]and roughly 63% higher fuel costs for truckers and farmers than a year ago. That matters beyond today's CPI print: diesel feeds directly into transportation, agriculture and distribution costs, creating the potential for continued inflation pressure even if crude pulls back on an individual session. (LinkedIn)

CNBC — U.S. diesel price tops [amount redacted]per gallon as Ukraine and Iran wars ripple through economy

Geopolitical risk also remains active. The overnight headline regarding Iran-backed Houthis near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is important because the market is already highly sensitive to disruptions involving global energy and shipping routes. This means today's apparent risk-on tone can reverse quickly if a geopolitical headline hits.

And because today is September 11, the session also carries the backdrop of commemorations for those killed in the September 11, 2001 attacks. That doesn't create a trading bias by itself, but it is part of today's broader context.

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Economic Calendar

🔴 8:30 AM ET — CPI

The most interesting number may be headline CPI m/m. The forecast calls for acceleration from 0.1% to 0.4%, while Core CPI is expected to remain comparatively contained.

That creates several possible reactions:

Cooler CPI → yields/USD potentially lower → VIX lower → supportive MNQ/MES.

Hotter CPI → yields/USD potentially higher → VIX higher → pressure MNQ/MES.

But there is an important wrinkle: energy inflation is already visible. A print near consensus may therefore leave traders debating whether inflation pressure is temporary or becoming embedded through transportation and production costs.

🟠 10:00 AM ET

Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment: 51.0 forecast vs. 51.7 previous.

Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations: 4.0% previous.

With inflation already the dominant theme, the inflation-expectations component could matter more than consumer sentiment itself.

🟡 2:00 PM ET

Federal Budget Balance: -[amount redacted] forecast vs. -[amount redacted] previous.

Ideally, there should be no reason to still be involved by then.

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U.S. Dollar — Macro Confirmation

Current: ~99.14 Daily Open: 99.096 Daily High: 99.187 Weekly Open: 99.170

Dollar has continued its recovery and is now consolidating around the weekly open after making a daily high at 99.187.

The structure is currently constructive. If price establishes acceptance above the weekly open, the immediate liquidity sits extremely close overhead:

Bullish Dollar Roadmap

99.170 Weekly Open → 99.187 Daily High → 99.199 Swing High → 99.209 Swing High → 99.294 Wick Midpoint → 99.392 PDH → 99.421 Monthly Open

The 99.197–99.392 wick is especially important. Breaking into it could allow the dollar to reprice quickly toward its midpoint.

For weakness, the first meaningful signal is a loss of the daily open:

Bearish Dollar Roadmap

99.096 Daily Open → 99.006 Swing Low → 98.875 Swing Low

For today's index trading, watch this closely after CPI. Dollar strength combined with VIX strength would be a meaningful headwind for MNQ/MES. Dollar weakness accompanying a falling VIX would strengthen the equity-long narrative.

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Gold — Macro Confirmation

Current: ~4,374 Daily High: 4,402.2 Daily Open: 4,359.6

Gold rallied during the overnight/London session but has since rotated lower and is threatening the short-term liquidity underneath price.

The first question is whether price can maintain itself above the daily open.

Bearish Gold Roadmap

4,372 short-term low → 4,359.6 Daily Open → 4,341.3 Weekly Low → 4,338.1 Yearly Open → 4,329.3 Monthly Low

Failure through 4,341–4,338 would be significant because several higher-timeframe references are clustered together there.

Bullish Gold Roadmap

Hold/reclaim 4,372 → 4,402.2 Daily High → 4,419.2 Swing High → 4,442.8 Swing High

A break above today's high would put Gold back into Wednesday's bearish order-block structure.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current: ~17.06 Quarterly Open: 17.11 Daily Open / NDOG Low: 17.51 NDOG Midpoint: 17.67 Daily High: 17.71 Weekly High: 18.17

VIX is one of the cleaner charts this morning.

We are currently seeing the 0→1 leg lower, with volatility falling beneath the 17.11 quarterly open. That is currently supportive of the overnight equity rally.

🔵 Primary VIX Bearish Scenario

17.11 lost → 16.82 Previous Week High → 16.55 CISD → potentially 16.05–15.91 1H bullish FVG

The lower FVG remains:

16.05 High → 15.98 Midpoint → 15.91 Low

If CPI produces continued VIX displacement lower, the equity indices should have room to expand upward.

But the more interesting setup may come from a retracement first.

VIX 0→1→2→3 Scenario

0→1: current decline → 1→2: retracement toward 17.51–17.67 → rejection → 2→3: renewed volatility expansion lower.

That would provide a cleaner confirmation for sustained equity strength than simply chasing indices while VIX is already falling.

🔴 VIX Bullish / Equity-Risk Scenario

17.11 reclaimed → 17.51 Daily Open / NDOG Low → 17.67 NDOG Midpoint → 17.71 Daily High → 17.84 NDOG High → 18.17 Weekly High → 18.43 Swing High

A CPI-driven VIX reclaim through the entire NDOG would materially change the morning narrative.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current: ~29,326 Premarket Low: 29,285.25 Daily High: ~29,340 Daily Open: 29,142 Weekly Low: 29,038

MNQ has recovered sharply from Thursday's selloff and is currently trading inside the same Daily bullish FVG that dominated yesterday's roadmap:

29,212.50 Low 29,340.50 Midpoint 29,468.25 High

Price is sitting almost directly at the midpoint.

That makes this FVG today's decision range.

🔵 Bullish MNQ Scenario

The first requirement is acceptance above 29,340.50.

29,340.50 D+FVG Midpoint → 29,404.25 75% → 29,468.25 FVG High → 29,508.25 PDH → 29,518.50 Monthly Open → 29,534.50 Weekly Open → 29,594 Swing High → 29,634 Swing High / PDH → 29,686.75 Swing High → 29,759 Daily -FVG Low → 29,764.75 Weekly High → 29,811.75 Previous Week High

That gives MNQ a substantial amount of overhead liquidity if CPI provides the catalyst.

The key is not simply price moving higher. I want the bullish move supported by VIX remaining below 17.11 or completing a 1→2 retracement and then beginning its 2→3 decline.

🔴 Bearish MNQ Scenario

Failure around the FVG midpoint changes the picture.

29,340.50 rejected → 29,285.25 Premarket Swing Low → 29,215 Swing Low → 29,212.50 D+FVG Low → 29,142 Daily Open → 29,038 Weekly Low → 28,927.25 Monthly Low → 28,831.50 PDL

The 29,212.50 area is particularly important because losing it means the entire Daily bullish FVG has failed to provide support.

At that point, yesterday's recovery becomes much less convincing.

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current: ~7,639 Premarket Low: 7,635.25 Daily High: 7,647.25 Daily Open: 7,599.75

MES is also trading inside a Weekly bullish FVG, making its internal quartiles particularly useful today.

Important references:

25%: 7,574.25 50%: 7,629.25 75%: 7,684.25

Price is currently just above the midpoint.

🔵 Bullish MES Scenario

The immediate job is straightforward:

7,647.25 Daily High → 7,666.50 PDH → 7,684.25 W+FVG 75% → 7,691.50 PDH

That 7,684–7,692 zone is my primary upside objective.

Beyond it, price begins moving back toward the larger overhead structures around:

7,700.75–7,710.25 → Weekly Open region → higher-timeframe liquidity above.

But those are secondary. There is no reason to project an enormous Friday move before CPI has even printed.

🔴 Bearish MES Scenario

The weekly FVG midpoint is the immediate pivot.

7,635.25 Premarket Low → 7,629.25 W+FVG Midpoint → 7,622.25 Swing Low → ~7,614 CISD → 7,599.75 Daily Open → 7,585.50 Monthly Low → 7,574.25 W+FVG 25% → 7,543.50 Quarterly Open

A sustained break below 7,629.25 starts weakening the bullish structure.

Below 7,599.75, the overnight recovery has effectively failed and the lower portion of the weekly FVG becomes vulnerable.

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Intermarket Scenarios

🟢 Scenario 1 — CPI Supports the Risk-On Move

VIX stays below 17.11 and works toward 16.82/16.55.

Dollar fails around 99.17–99.21.

MNQ accepts above 29,340.50.

MES holds 7,629.25 and breaks 7,647.25.

That gives the cleanest long narrative.

MNQ: 29,404 → 29,468 → 29,508/29,535 → 29,594+

MES: 7,647 → 7,666 → 7,684 → 7,691

🔴 Scenario 2 — CPI Reawakens Inflation Fear

Dollar breaks 99.21 and expands into the upper wick.

VIX reclaims 17.11, then moves into 17.51–17.84.

MNQ rejects the Daily FVG midpoint and loses 29,285.

MES loses the Weekly FVG midpoint at 7,629.25.

That creates the cleaner short narrative.

MNQ: 29,212 → 29,142 → 29,038 → 28,927

MES: 7,622 → 7,600 → 7,585 → 7,574

⚪ Scenario 3 — CPI Creates Two-Way Volatility

This may be the scenario requiring the most patience.

CPI spikes MNQ/MES through nearby liquidity, VIX simultaneously sweeps one side of its NDOG, and everything reverses before or around the cash open.

In that environment, the first move is information—not necessarily the trade.

Wait for the post-release range, liquidity sweep, displacement and CISD before committing.

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High Post

This is a sit-on-your-hands morning until CPI.

The overnight session has already moved substantially. MNQ has rallied from the 29,040 area into the 29,300s, MES has recovered from roughly 7,585 into the 7,630s, and VIX has already fallen substantially from Thursday's volatility expansion.

That creates a classic problem: the market has already priced a narrative before the catalyst.

Don't chase that narrative at 8:29.

CPI at 8:30 AM gets to decide whether the overnight positioning was correct.

The cleanest tells afterward are:

VIX: 17.11 and 17.51–17.84 DXY: 99.17–99.21 MNQ: 29,340.50 MES: 7,629.25 / 7,647.25

If those markets align, we have a tradeable narrative.

If they conflict, we don't.

Friday Reminder

The overnight move gave us the setup. CPI gets to decide whether the market keeps it. Don't trade the expectation—trade the confirmation.