2026-09-21

DXY

Pre-Market Playbook — Monday, September 21, 2026

Market Context

The first session of the week is opening with a continuation of the same broader theme from the Weekly Outlook: I have to trade what price is actually doing, not what I think it should be doing.

Overnight, that has meant lower volatility and higher equity indices. MNQ and MES both ran Friday's highs and continued aggressively higher without providing the clean 1→2 retracement I would normally want for continuation. By pre-market, both are already well into their bullish sequences and trading near higher-timeframe resistance/PD arrays.

That immediately changes the execution question. I'm not chasing the overnight move. The question at the NY session is whether these extended bullish deliveries continue directly higher or finally produce the retracement needed to create a new setup.

The broader risk backdrop is also supportive this morning. U.S. equity futures are higher as oil prices and Treasury yields ease. Reuters reports that crude fell to an 11-day low as markets weighed possible U.S.-Iran diplomacy and improved Saudi oil exports; that easing in oil helped pull yields lower while AI-related stocks strengthened. Bitcoin is also participating in the broader risk-on move. (Reuters)

There is still considerable geopolitical headline risk, however. Reports that President Trump is open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly are contributing to diplomatic optimism, but Iran and the U.S. exchanged new threats over the weekend and regional tensions remain elevated. So I don't want to treat every diplomacy headline as confirmation that the geopolitical problem has been resolved. (Reuters)

The CNBC stories I'm tracking this morning are:

Dow futures jump 400 points as oil and yields ease to start week: Live updates

Bitcoin hits highest level since January at [amount redacted]as the market debates whether the “crypto winter” is over

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Economic Calendar

There is no red- or orange-folder economic release driving the morning session.

The calendar only shows FOMC member Austan Goolsbee speaking at 6:30 AM ET, which is already behind us by the time of this playbook.

That leaves this primarily as a price-delivery and headline-risk session rather than one built around a scheduled 8:30 or 10:00 AM economic release.

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U.S. Dollar — Still Waiting for the Decision

DXY hasn't meaningfully resolved the question we carried into the Weekly Outlook.

Price is around 100.26, with today's range approximately:

• ▸Daily High: 100.370
• ▸Current: ~100.263
• ▸Daily Low: 100.201

Dollar rejected Friday's 100.502 MH after that high was created inside the bearish Weekly FVG:

100.650 W-FVG(H) → 100.354 W-FVG(M) → 100.058 W-FVG(L)

But today's price action hasn't produced a meaningful 0→1 in either direction. We're essentially consolidating between the weekly bearish structure overhead and the bullish Daily FVG below.

Bullish Dollar Scenario

A push through today's high brings the midpoint of the Weekly FVG back into play:

100.370 → 100.502 → 100.564 → 100.650

Acceptance through 100.650 W-FVG(H) would be much more significant because the next higher-timeframe arrays don't arrive until:

100.806 W-OB(L) → 101.222 W-OB(M)

Bearish Dollar Scenario

The more interesting bearish development would be a break through today's low and Friday's lower structure:

100.201 → 100.165 → 100.058 W-FVG(L) → 100.022 D+FVG(H)

That's where the Weekly Outlook becomes relevant again.

The bullish Daily FVG is:

100.022 → 99.817 → 99.611

If Dollar finally makes its 0→1 into that array, I don't automatically assume continuation lower. I want to see whether the D+FVG generates the 1→2 reversal or whether that reversal fails and creates the 2→3 continuation through the array.

DXY Read

No trade narrative yet.

Dollar is ranging, and there's no reason to manufacture a directional opinion while it remains trapped around 100.20–100.37.

For Gold, DXY becomes much more useful if that range actually resolves.

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Gold — The 1→2 Decision

Gold is much more interesting.

Current price is approximately 4,398.7, with:

• ▸Daily High: 4,422.2
• ▸Daily Open: 4,412.7
• ▸Current: ~4,398.7
• ▸Daily Low: 4,376.5

The larger question remains whether the bearish delivery that began from Friday's highs is still intact.

Gold produced the initial 0→1 downside move, and today's recovery appears to be developing as the 1→2 retracement.

Now we need the market to tell us whether this retracement succeeds or fails.

Bullish Gold Scenario

A sustained recovery needs to reclaim the daily opening price and today's high:

4,412.7 → 4,422.2 → ~4,439.9

Above there, we're back into the Weekly Outlook's larger bullish scenario and the bearish 1H FVG becomes the draw:

4,482.0 → 4,496.4 → 4,510.8

That would increasingly suggest that what initially looked like a bearish sequence has transitioned into a new bullish 0→1 delivery.

Bearish Gold Scenario

Failure of the current 1→2 is much more interesting from the present location.

The nearby NWOG gives us:

4,389.8 NWOG(H) → 4,382.2 NWOG(M) → 4,374.5 NWOG(L)

That overlaps closely with today's 4,376.5 low.

If the retracement fails and Gold begins displacing back through that structure:

4,389.8 → 4,382.2 → 4,376.5/4,374.5 → 4,371.2

then the bearish 2→3 scenario is developing.

Below there, the next larger liquidity sits around the 4,340s and 4,320s.

Gold Decision

This is a clean 1→2 decision point.

I don't need to predict it.

DXY ↓ + Gold reclaiming 4,412.7/4,422.2 = bullish evidence.

DXY ↑ + Gold failing through 4,389.8/4,382.2 = bearish evidence.

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VIX — No 1→2 Yet

VIX remains the clearest piece of the equity correlation.

Price is approximately 14.83–14.84 after taking today's previous low:

• ▸Daily High: 14.99
• ▸Yearly Open: ~14.85
• ▸Current: ~14.84
• ▸PWL: ~14.80

We're still inside the bearish 0→1 delivery discussed in the Weekly Outlook.

And importantly, there really hasn't been a legitimate 1→2 yet.

VIX dropped, stalled around 14.80–15.00, and is now probing lower again.

Continued VIX Weakness

Loss of PWL keeps the downside draw intact:

14.80/14.79 → 14.53 NWOG(L) → ~14.27

Below that, the larger Monthly Low / PYL structures remain potential draws.

If VIX simply continues delivering lower without a meaningful 1→2, that's important information:

The absence of a VIX retracement helps explain the absence of an index retracement.

VIX Reversal

For equities to develop something more substantial to the downside, I first want VIX to actually prove it can rally.

The first important recovery levels are:

15.05 NWOG(M) → 15.30 → 15.56 NWOG(H)

Above that:

16.03 NDOG(L)

would represent a considerably more meaningful volatility expansion.

VIX Decision

Right now, nothing has invalidated the Weekly Outlook.

VIX remains bearish until it proves otherwise.

That's critical when evaluating how extended MNQ and MES look.

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MNQ — Overnight Move Already Mature

MNQ has already done a tremendous amount of work before NY opens.

Price pushed through Friday's high, continued through the bearish Daily FVG, created a new monthly high and is now trading around 30,230.25.

The overnight move essentially blew through the normal sequence.

We got the bullish 0→1, but there was no meaningful 1→2. Price continued higher, gave only a shallow later retracement and is already approaching what I had mapped as the 5 area.

That's not where I want to initiate a chase long.

Key current structure:

• ▸Current: ~30,230.25
• ▸Monthly High: ~30,273
• ▸Nearby swing high: 30,286.75
• ▸Closest meaningful pre-market swing low: ~30,063.75
• ▸Daily Open: 29,938.25
• ▸Daily Low: 29,903.50

The bearish Daily FVG below remains:

30,053.25 D-FVG(H) → 29,906.25 D-FVG(M) → 29,759.00 D-FVG(L)

Bullish Continuation

If VIX keeps bleeding lower, MNQ can simply continue doing what it's doing.

The immediate ladder is:

30,273/30,286.75 → PWH ~30,350 → higher BSL

A market being extended isn't a reason to short it.

But it also doesn't mean I have to buy it.

If MNQ takes 30,286.75 while VIX continues through PWL toward 14.53, I can simply observe until the market gives me another structure I can define.

Bearish / Retracement Scenario

This is the setup I'm more interested in waiting for, not predicting.

The first meaningful downside test is around:

30,063.75 → 30,053.25 D-FVG(H)

If price begins accepting beneath there:

29,938.25 Daily Open → 29,906.25 D-FVG(M)/29,903.50 Daily Low → 29,759 D-FVG(L)

But this needs VIX confirmation.

A MNQ pullback while VIX remains pinned below 14.80 could simply be another 1→2/3→4 retracement within the bullish delivery.

A MNQ rejection from the highs while VIX reclaims 15.05 → 15.30 is much more meaningful.

MNQ Posture

Hands off at current extension.

The overnight move happened without offering the preferred entry structure.

There is no requirement to participate now simply because the analysis was directionally correct.

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MES — Trading Directly Into the Daily Bearish FVG

MES is telling essentially the same story.

The index took Friday's high overnight and continued through the bullish Weekly FVG high at 7,739.25.

Price is now approximately 7,768, putting us directly into the bearish Daily FVG:

7,766.50 D-FVG(L) → 7,781.50 D-FVG(M) → 7,796.50 D-FVG(H)

That is exactly the higher-timeframe array identified in the Weekly Outlook.

The bullish delivery therefore worked.

Now we're asking a completely different question:

Does the bearish Daily FVG actually produce resistance, or does MES simply keep accepting through it?

Bullish MES Scenario

Acceptance above 7,766.50 keeps:

7,781.50 → 7,796.50

in play.

Above that sit the larger PWH → PDH → ATH liquidity objectives.

And once again, if VIX is breaking through PWL and continuing toward 14.53, I'm not shorting MES simply because it reached a bearish FVG.

The FVG has to actually produce bearish delivery.

Bearish / 3→4 Retracement

The current move is mature enough that a 3→4 retracement would make sense structurally.

But "makes sense" isn't confirmation.

The first meaningful support is back around:

7,739.25 W+FVG(H)

Then the overnight structure becomes important:

~7,730.75 → 7,722.25 Daily Open → 7,713.75 Daily Low

Acceptance below those levels would make the retracement considerably more meaningful.

Deeper downside brings:

7,684.25

back into play.

MES Posture

Just like MNQ:

Don't chase the overnight bullish delivery, and don't automatically fade it because it's extended.

Let the bearish Daily FVG show whether it's actually going to matter.

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Primary Intermarket Confirmation

The cleanest way to approach today's session is through VIX.

Scenario 1 — Overnight Trend Continues

VIX: 14.80 → 14.79 → 14.53 → ~14.27

MNQ: 30,273/30,286.75 → PWH → higher BSL

MES: 7,766.50 → 7,781.50 → 7,796.50 → PWH/PDH/ATH

This would simply be continuation of the Weekly Outlook.

There may not be a trade if the market never provides the retracement.

That's okay.

Scenario 2 — First Real Retracement

VIX: 14.80 low → 15.05 → 15.30

MNQ: failure near 30,273–30,286 → 30,063/30,053 → 29,938 → 29,906

MES: failure inside 7,766.50–7,796.50 → 7,739.25 → ~7,730.75 → 7,722.25

This is where the morning becomes much more interesting.

But even here, the initial move lower could simply be the missing retracement within the larger bullish delivery.

Scenario 3 — Retracement Becomes Reversal

For that, I need more.

VIX needs to show acceptance above 15.05 and preferably 15.30/15.56, while MNQ and MES begin breaking the structures created during the overnight rally.

Until that happens, a pullback is a pullback.

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High Post

The Weekly Outlook said VIX lower = indices higher, and that's exactly what the overnight session delivered.

The problem isn't the narrative.

The problem is location.

MNQ and MES have already made substantial bullish moves before the NY cash open. Neither gave the clean 1→2 retracement that would have created the preferred continuation entry. MNQ is near the upper end of its mapped sequence, while MES is already trading inside the bearish Daily FVG we identified as a higher-timeframe objective.

So today's job isn't to chase what already happened.

The primary decision points are:

VIX: 14.79/14.80 ↔ 15.05 ↔ 15.30

MNQ: 30,286.75 ↔ 30,053.25 ↔ 29,906.25

MES: 7,796.50/7,781.50/7,766.50 ↔ 7,739.25 ↔ 7,722.25

Gold: 4,422.2/4,412.7 ↔ 4,389.8/4,382.2 ↔ 4,374.5

DXY: 100.370 ↔ 100.201 ↔ 100.022

The market may continue higher without giving me anything.

Or NY may finally create the retracement the overnight session never gave me.

Either outcome is acceptable.

The overnight move can validate my narrative without creating my trade. My job at the open is to wait for the next sequence—not chase the last one.