2026-09-18

DXY

VIX up will it fail as it's in a 1-2 bounce from its lows. Dollar pushing through the -FVG with not much above to slow it down while Gold is failing its highs. Indices starting a 1-2 move to the down side near the highs of the week in line with VIX buying off its weekly lows. No red or orange folders

Pre-Market Playbook — Friday, September 18, 2026

Market Context

Friday begins with a very different intermarket picture than Thursday's aggressive post-Fed equity recovery. The Federal Reserve's 25 bp hike on Wednesday took the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, and the broader global backdrop remains one of tightening monetary conditions. Reuters reports that global stocks and bonds are softer today as markets digest the Fed hike alongside tightening elsewhere, while U.S. futures have been comparatively resilient. (Reuters)

The user-provided CNBC headline frames U.S. futures as little changed following Thursday's post-Fed bounce. That fits what the charts are showing this morning: MES and MNQ are still sitting near the upper end of the week's range, but both have begun pulling away from their overnight highs.

CNBC — S&P 500 futures are little changed after Thursday's post-Fed bounce

The intermarket picture deserves attention. DXY is breaking higher through its weekly bearish FVG, Gold has rejected its overnight highs, VIX is bouncing from its new weekly lows, and both indices are beginning potential 1→2 retracements from their weekly highs.

That creates a potential risk-off alignment, but it is not confirmed yet. The primary question is whether VIX's current bounce develops into an actual expansion or simply fails as another retracement within its larger bearish delivery.

Oil has also backed away from this week's extremes. Reuters reports Brent around [amount redacted]and WTI around [amount redacted]this morning as fears surrounding Saudi supply disruption ease somewhat. That reduces one immediate inflationary pressure even though Middle East risk remains elevated. (Reuters)

The additional Russia/Nestlé headline is geopolitically significant but currently secondary to today's index setup.

CNBC — Putin targets Nestlé's Russian business

---

Economic Calendar

There are no red- or orange-folder U.S. releases this morning.

That is important for today's expectations.

Unlike yesterday's 8:30 catalyst, there is nothing scheduled before the opening bell that necessarily needs to create the day's displacement. The overnight intermarket structure therefore carries more weight going into New York.

Bowman's 9:30 appearance occurs exactly at the cash open, however, so the opening rotation could still encounter headline volatility.

---

Macro / Intermarket Read

The most interesting development this morning is the combination of:

DXY ↑ + VIX attempting ↑ + Gold rejecting highs + MNQ/MES retracing ↓

That's the cleanest risk-off combination we've had developing this morning.

But there is an important distinction:

DXY has already demonstrated strength. VIX has not yet proven that its bounce will survive.

That makes VIX the more important confirmation instrument for the equity-short narrative.

---

DXY — Dollar Context

DXY is currently around 100.51 and has continued yesterday's move through the weekly bearish FVG.

Yesterday, the question was whether the dollar would reject from this gap. This morning it has instead shown acceptance through the midpoint and is now testing/breaching PDH around 100.502.

Current structure

Weekly bearish FVG:

100.058 → 100.354 → 100.650

Price has now moved:

100.206 → 100.354 → 100.367 → 100.502

and is trading around 100.51.

That leaves the 100.650 weekly FVG high as the obvious next major upside reference.

Dollar continuation

100.502 → 100.650

There isn't much visible structure between those levels to impede price.

Acceptance above 100.502 therefore keeps the dollar-strength narrative intact.

Dollar failure

A rejection from this area would first need to bring price back beneath:

100.502 → 100.354

Losing 100.354 would be considerably more meaningful because it would put DXY back below the midpoint of the weekly bearish FVG.

Interpretation

For equities, this is currently a headwind.

The dollar is not merely testing the bearish FVG anymore—it is demonstrating acceptance through it.

---

Gold — Intermarket Context

Gold is around 4,415.6 after making an overnight push toward approximately 4,438–4,440 and then rejecting.

That leaves a very interesting divergence:

DXY is making new highs while Gold has failed to sustain its own highs.

Gold remains structurally elevated, so this is not yet a broader bearish reversal. But the immediate intraday delivery has weakened.

Important downside structure

The first important zone is yesterday's breakout area around:

4,414.1

Below that, the NWOG becomes the major support:

4,389.8 → 4,382.2 → 4,374.5

Acceptance back inside that gap would make the rejection from today's highs more meaningful.

Upside

A recovery would first require Gold to reclaim the overnight rejection and then attack:

~4,438 → 4,445.2 PDH

Gold remains context rather than a standalone setup today.

---

VIX — Volatility Roadmap

VIX is arguably the most important chart this morning.

Yesterday's volatility collapse continued much farther than expected.

VIX traded through:

15.56 → 15.30 → 15.22 → 15.05

and established new weekly lows before beginning its current bounce.

Price is now around 15.39 after reaching approximately 15.17–15.20 overnight.

The question is straightforward:

Is this the beginning of a meaningful 1→2 retracement—or does the bounce fail?

Bullish VIX / Equity Bearish Scenario

The first meaningful level is:

15.56 — NWOG high

A reclaim would put VIX back above the gap it recently traded through.

Above that:

~15.65 CISD → 15.84 NWOG low → 16.26 → 16.67 NWOG midpoint

So the roadmap becomes:

15.39 → 15.56 → ~15.65 → 15.84 → 16.26 → 16.67

The first significant confirmation for me is 15.56–15.65.

If VIX can establish bullish delivery through that area while MNQ/MES are breaking lower, the equity retracement gains substantially more credibility.

VIX Failure / Equity Bullish Scenario

If this bounce fails around current levels:

15.30 → 15.05 → 14.95 → 14.85 → 14.79 → 14.53

The 15.05 region is particularly important because it contains the NWOG midpoint with the monthly/yearly opening-price area immediately underneath.

A renewed break toward 14.79/14.53 would seriously weaken the equity-short narrative.

VIX Decision

This is not yet "VIX bullish."

It's:

VIX attempting a 1→2 bounce after an extended 0→1 decline.

Let the bounce prove itself.

---

MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

MNQ is trading around 29,832 after reaching approximately 29,938 overnight.

Thursday's bullish delivery accomplished exactly what we were watching for: price traded into the Daily bearish FVG and continued through its midpoint.

Daily bearish FVG:

29,759 → 29,906.25 → 30,053.25

MNQ is now pulling back inside that FVG.

That makes today's location particularly interesting.

Bearish Scenario — 1→2 Develops

The initial move off the overnight high is already underway.

The first major level is:

29,759 — Daily bearish FVG low

Immediately beneath that sits yesterday's breakout structure around 29,700–29,720.

Acceptance below the FVG would open:

~29,700 → ~29,650 → 29,518.50

The 29,518.50 monthly open becomes a much more important downside objective if this develops beyond a shallow retracement.

So:

29,906.25 → 29,759 → ~29,700 → ~29,650 → 29,518.50

The cleaner short isn't simply "MNQ is falling."

I want:

VIX reclaiming 15.56/15.65 + DXY holding above 100.502 + MNQ accepting below 29,759.

That would provide much stronger intermarket confirmation.

Bullish Scenario — Retracement Holds

MNQ remains in a broader bullish delivery.

If the current pullback establishes an SMR/MAR and buyers defend the lower portion of the Daily FVG, a bullish state change can send price back toward:

29,906.25 → ~29,938 → 30,053.25 → ~30,100 PDH

A sustained move through 30,053.25 would completely trade through the Daily bearish FVG.

That would put MNQ back into price discovery toward the higher liquidity visible above.

MNQ Decision

Right now:

0→1 upside appears complete.

We may now be developing the 1→2 downside rotation.

Don't confuse a 1→2 retracement with a full bearish reversal until price actually establishes bearish acceptance.

---

MES — S&P Playbook

MES presents a similar structure.

Price pushed to approximately 7,739 overnight, completing Thursday's move into the Weekly bullish FVG high around:

7,739.25

It has since backed down toward 7,714.

That means yesterday's upside objective was effectively delivered, and we're now evaluating what comes after it.

Bearish Scenario

The first important area is roughly:

7,710 → 7,700

Below there, the developing downside structure opens:

~7,680 → ~7,670 → ~7,656

The more meaningful bearish development would be acceptance back underneath the 7,700 region, particularly if accompanied by expanding VIX.

So:

7,710 → 7,700 → ~7,680 → ~7,670 → ~7,656

A deeper 1→2 could eventually reach the lower NWOG/FVG structure, but there is no reason to project that prematurely.

Bullish Scenario

If this is merely a shallow retracement and MES establishes bullish delivery again:

7,739.25 → 7,766.50 → 7,781.50 → 7,796.50

The next major structure is the Daily bearish FVG:

7,766.50 → 7,781.50 → 7,796.50

This is therefore the S&P equivalent of MNQ's Daily bearish FVG.

A clean bullish continuation would require price to first erase the current pullback and reclaim the overnight high.

---

Primary Intermarket Confirmation

Today's developing bearish setup has a particularly clean confirmation sequence:

DXY: holds 100.502 and continues toward 100.650

VIX: reclaims 15.56 → ~15.65 → 15.84

Gold: remains beneath the overnight high and begins accepting below 4,414

MNQ: loses 29,759

MES: accepts below approximately 7,700

If those occur together, the current index decline stops looking like an ordinary 1→2 retracement and begins developing the characteristics needed for a larger bearish delivery.

Conversely:

VIX fails → DXY rejects → MNQ holds 29,759 → MES holds ~7,700

would argue that the pullback is simply resetting Thursday's bullish move.

---

A+ Setup Framework

There is something especially useful about today's structure:

we don't have to chase anything.

Yesterday morning the problem was almost the opposite—equities were already running higher and VIX was already collapsing.

Today we're watching the potential transition develop.

Bearish A+ candidate

Index high established → bearish 0→1 → 1→2 retracement → MAR/SMR rejection → LTF bearish confirmation + VIX bullish confirmation

Then look for 2→3.

Bullish A+ candidate

Allow the current index retracement to mature.

If VIX's 1→2 bounce fails and MNQ/MES form bullish MAR/EMR confirmation at support, the equity 2→3 continuation higher becomes viable.

That keeps us from predicting whether the current retracement becomes a reversal.

We're trading the decision.

---

High Post

Today is exactly why the schedule change we discussed yesterday matters.

At approximately 7:45 ET, you're already looking at the charts with no 8:30 red-folder catalyst looming.

And there is already useful information:

Dollar is breaking higher. Gold has rejected its highs. VIX has bought its weekly lows. MNQ has rejected inside its Daily bearish FVG. MES has rejected after reaching the Weekly FVG objective.

That's a developing narrative before New York opens.

The key question isn't whether equities are bearish today.

It's whether the current 1→2 rotations become accepted bearish delivery or fail and resume Thursday's advance.

Key Levels

VIX: 15.30 → 15.56 → ~15.65 → 15.84 → 16.26

DXY: 100.354 → 100.502 → 100.650

MNQ: 29,906.25 → 29,759 → ~29,700 → ~29,650 → 29,518.50

MES: 7,739.25 → ~7,710 → ~7,700 → ~7,680 → ~7,656

Current posture

Indices are beginning a potential 1→2 decline near weekly highs while VIX begins its own 1→2 recovery from weekly lows. DXY provides early risk-off confirmation, but VIX still needs to prove the bounce.

Don't predict the 2→3. Let MAR tell us which market is actually accepting the new state of delivery. (Reuters)

---

DXY

VIX up will it fail as it's in a 1-2 bounce from its lows. Dollar pushing through the -FVG with not much above to slow it down while Gold is failing its highs. Indices starting a 1-2 move to the down side near the highs of the week in line with VIX buying off its weekly lows. No red or orange folders

Pre-Market Playbook — Friday, September 18, 2026

Market Context

Friday begins with a very different intermarket picture than Thursday's aggressive post-Fed equity recovery. The Federal Reserve's 25 bp hike on Wednesday took the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, and the broader global backdrop remains one of tightening monetary conditions. Reuters reports that global stocks and bonds are softer today as markets digest the Fed hike alongside tightening elsewhere, while U.S. futures have been comparatively resilient. (Reuters)

The user-provided CNBC headline frames U.S. futures as little changed following Thursday's post-Fed bounce. That fits what the charts are showing this morning: MES and MNQ are still sitting near the upper end of the week's range, but both have begun pulling away from their overnight highs.

CNBC — S&P 500 futures are little changed after Thursday's post-Fed bounce

The intermarket picture deserves attention. DXY is breaking higher through its weekly bearish FVG, Gold has rejected its overnight highs, VIX is bouncing from its new weekly lows, and both indices are beginning potential 1→2 retracements from their weekly highs.

That creates a potential risk-off alignment, but it is not confirmed yet. The primary question is whether VIX's current bounce develops into an actual expansion or simply fails as another retracement within its larger bearish delivery.

Oil has also backed away from this week's extremes. Reuters reports Brent around [amount redacted]and WTI around [amount redacted]this morning as fears surrounding Saudi supply disruption ease somewhat. That reduces one immediate inflationary pressure even though Middle East risk remains elevated. (Reuters)

The additional Russia/Nestlé headline is geopolitically significant but currently secondary to today's index setup.

CNBC — Putin targets Nestlé's Russian business

---

Economic Calendar

There are no red- or orange-folder U.S. releases this morning.

That is important for today's expectations.

Unlike yesterday's 8:30 catalyst, there is nothing scheduled before the opening bell that necessarily needs to create the day's displacement. The overnight intermarket structure therefore carries more weight going into New York.

Bowman's 9:30 appearance occurs exactly at the cash open, however, so the opening rotation could still encounter headline volatility.

---

Macro / Intermarket Read

The most interesting development this morning is the combination of:

DXY ↑ + VIX attempting ↑ + Gold rejecting highs + MNQ/MES retracing ↓

That's the cleanest risk-off combination we've had developing this morning.

But there is an important distinction:

DXY has already demonstrated strength. VIX has not yet proven that its bounce will survive.

That makes VIX the more important confirmation instrument for the equity-short narrative.

---

DXY — Dollar Context

DXY is currently around 100.51 and has continued yesterday's move through the weekly bearish FVG.

Yesterday, the question was whether the dollar would reject from this gap. This morning it has instead shown acceptance through the midpoint and is now testing/breaching PDH around 100.502.

Current structure

Weekly bearish FVG:

100.058 → 100.354 → 100.650

Price has now moved:

100.206 → 100.354 → 100.367 → 100.502

and is trading around 100.51.

That leaves the 100.650 weekly FVG high as the obvious next major upside reference.

Dollar continuation

100.502 → 100.650

There isn't much visible structure between those levels to impede price.

Acceptance above 100.502 therefore keeps the dollar-strength narrative intact.

Dollar failure

A rejection from this area would first need to bring price back beneath:

100.502 → 100.354

Losing 100.354 would be considerably more meaningful because it would put DXY back below the midpoint of the weekly bearish FVG.

Interpretation

For equities, this is currently a headwind.

The dollar is not merely testing the bearish FVG anymore—it is demonstrating acceptance through it.

---

Gold — Intermarket Context

Gold is around 4,415.6 after making an overnight push toward approximately 4,438–4,440 and then rejecting.

That leaves a very interesting divergence:

DXY is making new highs while Gold has failed to sustain its own highs.

Gold remains structurally elevated, so this is not yet a broader bearish reversal. But the immediate intraday delivery has weakened.

Important downside structure

The first important zone is yesterday's breakout area around:

4,414.1

Below that, the NWOG becomes the major support:

4,389.8 → 4,382.2 → 4,374.5

Acceptance back inside that gap would make the rejection from today's highs more meaningful.

Upside

A recovery would first require Gold to reclaim the overnight rejection and then attack:

~4,438 → 4,445.2 PDH

Gold remains context rather than a standalone setup today.

---

VIX — Volatility Roadmap

VIX is arguably the most important chart this morning.

Yesterday's volatility collapse continued much farther than expected.

VIX traded through:

15.56 → 15.30 → 15.22 → 15.05

and established new weekly lows before beginning its current bounce.

Price is now around 15.39 after reaching approximately 15.17–15.20 overnight.

The question is straightforward:

Is this the beginning of a meaningful 1→2 retracement—or does the bounce fail?

Bullish VIX / Equity Bearish Scenario

The first meaningful level is:

15.56 — NWOG high

A reclaim would put VIX back above the gap it recently traded through.

Above that:

~15.65 CISD → 15.84 NWOG low → 16.26 → 16.67 NWOG midpoint

So the roadmap becomes:

15.39 → 15.56 → ~15.65 → 15.84 → 16.26 → 16.67

The first significant confirmation for me is 15.56–15.65.

If VIX can establish bullish delivery through that area while MNQ/MES are breaking lower, the equity retracement gains substantially more credibility.

VIX Failure / Equity Bullish Scenario

If this bounce fails around current levels:

15.30 → 15.05 → 14.95 → 14.85 → 14.79 → 14.53

The 15.05 region is particularly important because it contains the NWOG midpoint with the monthly/yearly opening-price area immediately underneath.

A renewed break toward 14.79/14.53 would seriously weaken the equity-short narrative.

VIX Decision

This is not yet "VIX bullish."

It's:

VIX attempting a 1→2 bounce after an extended 0→1 decline.

Let the bounce prove itself.

---

MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

MNQ is trading around 29,832 after reaching approximately 29,938 overnight.

Thursday's bullish delivery accomplished exactly what we were watching for: price traded into the Daily bearish FVG and continued through its midpoint.

Daily bearish FVG:

29,759 → 29,906.25 → 30,053.25

MNQ is now pulling back inside that FVG.

That makes today's location particularly interesting.

Bearish Scenario — 1→2 Develops

The initial move off the overnight high is already underway.

The first major level is:

29,759 — Daily bearish FVG low

Immediately beneath that sits yesterday's breakout structure around 29,700–29,720.

Acceptance below the FVG would open:

~29,700 → ~29,650 → 29,518.50

The 29,518.50 monthly open becomes a much more important downside objective if this develops beyond a shallow retracement.

So:

29,906.25 → 29,759 → ~29,700 → ~29,650 → 29,518.50

The cleaner short isn't simply "MNQ is falling."

I want:

VIX reclaiming 15.56/15.65 + DXY holding above 100.502 + MNQ accepting below 29,759.

That would provide much stronger intermarket confirmation.

Bullish Scenario — Retracement Holds

MNQ remains in a broader bullish delivery.

If the current pullback establishes an SMR/MAR and buyers defend the lower portion of the Daily FVG, a bullish state change can send price back toward:

29,906.25 → ~29,938 → 30,053.25 → ~30,100 PDH

A sustained move through 30,053.25 would completely trade through the Daily bearish FVG.

That would put MNQ back into price discovery toward the higher liquidity visible above.

MNQ Decision

Right now:

0→1 upside appears complete.

We may now be developing the 1→2 downside rotation.

Don't confuse a 1→2 retracement with a full bearish reversal until price actually establishes bearish acceptance.

---

MES — S&P Playbook

MES presents a similar structure.

Price pushed to approximately 7,739 overnight, completing Thursday's move into the Weekly bullish FVG high around:

7,739.25

It has since backed down toward 7,714.

That means yesterday's upside objective was effectively delivered, and we're now evaluating what comes after it.

Bearish Scenario

The first important area is roughly:

7,710 → 7,700

Below there, the developing downside structure opens:

~7,680 → ~7,670 → ~7,656

The more meaningful bearish development would be acceptance back underneath the 7,700 region, particularly if accompanied by expanding VIX.

So:

7,710 → 7,700 → ~7,680 → ~7,670 → ~7,656

A deeper 1→2 could eventually reach the lower NWOG/FVG structure, but there is no reason to project that prematurely.

Bullish Scenario

If this is merely a shallow retracement and MES establishes bullish delivery again:

7,739.25 → 7,766.50 → 7,781.50 → 7,796.50

The next major structure is the Daily bearish FVG:

7,766.50 → 7,781.50 → 7,796.50

This is therefore the S&P equivalent of MNQ's Daily bearish FVG.

A clean bullish continuation would require price to first erase the current pullback and reclaim the overnight high.

---

Primary Intermarket Confirmation

Today's developing bearish setup has a particularly clean confirmation sequence:

DXY: holds 100.502 and continues toward 100.650

VIX: reclaims 15.56 → ~15.65 → 15.84

Gold: remains beneath the overnight high and begins accepting below 4,414

MNQ: loses 29,759

MES: accepts below approximately 7,700

If those occur together, the current index decline stops looking like an ordinary 1→2 retracement and begins developing the characteristics needed for a larger bearish delivery.

Conversely:

VIX fails → DXY rejects → MNQ holds 29,759 → MES holds ~7,700

would argue that the pullback is simply resetting Thursday's bullish move.

---

A+ Setup Framework

There is something especially useful about today's structure:

we don't have to chase anything.

Yesterday morning the problem was almost the opposite—equities were already running higher and VIX was already collapsing.

Today we're watching the potential transition develop.

Bearish A+ candidate

Index high established → bearish 0→1 → 1→2 retracement → MAR/SMR rejection → LTF bearish confirmation + VIX bullish confirmation

Then look for 2→3.

Bullish A+ candidate

Allow the current index retracement to mature.

If VIX's 1→2 bounce fails and MNQ/MES form bullish MAR/EMR confirmation at support, the equity 2→3 continuation higher becomes viable.

That keeps us from predicting whether the current retracement becomes a reversal.

We're trading the decision.

---

High Post

Today is exactly why the schedule change we discussed yesterday matters.

At approximately 7:45 ET, you're already looking at the charts with no 8:30 red-folder catalyst looming.

And there is already useful information:

Dollar is breaking higher. Gold has rejected its highs. VIX has bought its weekly lows. MNQ has rejected inside its Daily bearish FVG. MES has rejected after reaching the Weekly FVG objective.

That's a developing narrative before New York opens.

The key question isn't whether equities are bearish today.

It's whether the current 1→2 rotations become accepted bearish delivery or fail and resume Thursday's advance.

Key Levels

VIX: 15.30 → 15.56 → ~15.65 → 15.84 → 16.26

DXY: 100.354 → 100.502 → 100.650

MNQ: 29,906.25 → 29,759 → ~29,700 → ~29,650 → 29,518.50

MES: 7,739.25 → ~7,710 → ~7,700 → ~7,680 → ~7,656

Current posture

Indices are beginning a potential 1→2 decline near weekly highs while VIX begins its own 1→2 recovery from weekly lows. DXY provides early risk-off confirmation, but VIX still needs to prove the bounce.

Don't predict the 2→3. Let MAR tell us which market is actually accepting the new state of delivery. (Reuters)