MES1! Long — 2026-06-25

Day Traders Versus Daily Trade Review

Thursday, June 25, 2026

Market Narrative

Today's session was driven almost entirely by the 8:30 AM ET economic releases. While Core PCE came in exactly as expected, GDP, Jobless Claims, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Core Durable Goods all exceeded expectations, creating an initially bullish macro backdrop. Micron's earnings also supported the technology sector overnight.

Despite the bullish fundamental data, the first move after the release proved to be a liquidity sweep rather than the true directional move. Both MES and MNQ rallied to new intraday highs before reversing sharply. As the session developed, technology stocks experienced aggressive selling while the Dow (MYM) continued making new all-time highs, highlighting significant sector rotation rather than broad market weakness.

The VIX provided one of the cleanest inverse correlation signals seen all week, making today's missed short particularly frustrating because the market followed the model almost perfectly.

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Economic Drivers

Major Releases (8:30 AM ET)

Although the macro data supported higher prices, the market used the post-news rally to engineer liquidity before reversing aggressively.

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VIX Review

Today's VIX behavior closely matched the pre-market expectations.

Pre-Market Structure

• ▸London High: 18.16
• ▸London Low: 17.95
• ▸Daily Low before news: 17.87

Following the 8:30 AM release, the VIX briefly gapped higher before immediately reversing lower to establish a new daily low at 17.72, confirming the initial bullish response in equities.

However, after the equity indices completed their liquidity sweep above the overnight highs, the VIX reversed sharply higher.

Key observations:

• ▸Daily Low established at 17.72
• ▸Bearish Fair Value Gap formed:

 * High: 18.07  * Mid: 17.98  * Low: 17.89

• ▸At the 9:30 AM cash open, the VIX swept liquidity above the morning highs before rejecting directly from the inverted Fair Value Gap.
• ▸The VIX rallied from 17.98 to approximately 18.95, perfectly confirming the aggressive selloff in MES and MNQ.

This was arguably the cleanest inverse correlation observed throughout the week.

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Trades Taken

Trade 1 – MES Long

Thesis

Following the bullish economic releases, price displaced above both the overnight high and the previous daily high.

The expectation was continuation toward higher-timeframe liquidity.

Setup

• ▸Swing Low: 7472.25
• ▸Five-Minute Order Block: 7480.75
• ▸Fair Value Gap:

 * High: 7485.50  * Mid: 7481.00  * Low: 7476.50

Rather than chasing price, patience was exercised by allowing price to retrace into the order block before waiting for one-minute confirmation.

After a one-minute swing low formed, the entry was refined.

Final Entry

• ▸Entry: 7483.75
• ▸Stop Loss: 7479.25
• ▸Target:

 * First: 7496.25  * Final: 7512.00

The trade failed shortly after entry.

Although the trade resulted in a loss, the execution process was consistent with the trading model and risk was controlled.

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Trade 2 – MES Short (Execution Error)

This became the defining trade of the day.

Intended Setup

After the bullish liquidity sweep failed, market structure shifted bearish.

The intended short entry was:

• ▸Sell: 7466.25
• ▸Stop Loss: 7470.50
• ▸Initial Target: 7452.00
• ▸Primary Target: 7436.00
• ▸Extended Target:

 * Weekly Low 7404.00

Every element of the trading model aligned:

• ▸Failed breakout
• ▸Order Block rejection
• ▸Fair Value Gap
• ▸VIX confirmation
• ▸Market Structure Shift
• ▸Strong displacement lower

Unfortunately, the incorrect order was entered.

Instead of selling, a buy order was accidentally submitted.

The position was manually closed at approximately 7462.00, limiting the damage before the anticipated bearish move unfolded.

Following the exit, MES declined through every planned target, reaching the weekly low before extending to approximately 7390.00.

This was not a market analysis error.

It was purely an operational execution mistake.

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MNQ Long

The same bullish setup was identified in MNQ.

Structure

• ▸Swing Low: 30099.00
• ▸Five-Minute Order Block: 30163.50
• ▸Fair Value Gap:

 * High: 30184.50  * Mid: 30165.00  * Low: 30145.75

Final Entry

• ▸Entry: 30163.50
• ▸Stop Loss: 30131.00
• ▸First Target: 30264.25
• ▸Final Target: 30416.50 (Monthly Open)

The trade ultimately failed with the broader reversal.

In hindsight, the same short opportunity existed on MNQ that developed on MES but was not taken.

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What Went Well

• ▸Macro narrative remained accurate.
• ▸Waited for confirmation instead of chasing the initial news spike.
• ▸Excellent patience entering retracements.
• ▸Proper use of order blocks and Fair Value Gaps.
• ▸Excellent VIX analysis.
• ▸Position sizing remained conservative.
• ▸No revenge trading.
• ▸Accepted the mistake and stopped trading.

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Areas for Improvement

The largest issue was not trade selection.

The largest issue was execution.

For the second consecutive day, an operational error resulted in entering the opposite side of the intended trade.

This has become a process issue rather than a trading model issue.

The market analysis was correct.

The setup was correct.

Execution failed.

Going forward, a mandatory pre-entry checklist ("Buy or Sell? Confirm. Execute.") should be incorporated before every order.

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Account Performance

[broker] 300K Accounts

Combined Daily Loss

-[amount redacted]

Combined Realized P/L

-[amount redacted]

Despite the losing session, every account remained well above its liquidation threshold, and daily risk remained tightly controlled due to disciplined position sizing.

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Intermarket Observations

One of the most important developments today was the divergence between the major equity indices.

• ▸MES: Sharp bearish reversal after the liquidity sweep.
• ▸MNQ: Technology experienced an even stronger selloff.
• ▸MYM: Continued higher and printed a new all-time high despite weakness in ES and NQ.

This suggests capital rotated out of technology while continuing to flow into industrials and value-oriented sectors. This divergence is worth monitoring going forward, as it may provide an additional layer of confirmation for future trades.

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RAS Score (Review & Assessment Score)

Overall RAS Score

88.0 / 100 (B+)

Breakdown

The overall score reflects a day where the trading model performed well, risk management was excellent, and market analysis was highly accurate. The primary deduction stems from the repeated operational error of entering the wrong side of the market. Without that execution mistake, today's review likely would have been one of the highest-scoring sessions this month.

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Final Thoughts

Today reinforced an important distinction: good trading and good outcomes are not always the same thing. Your market read was among the strongest of the week. The VIX behaved exactly as anticipated, the liquidity map played out with precision, and both the bullish and bearish scenarios developed according to your plan. Most importantly, you respected your risk limits, avoided revenge trading, and preserved capital after the execution mistake.

The focus now is no longer on improving your ability to read price action—it is on eliminating preventable operational errors. A simple pre-order verification routine may have a greater impact on your performance than any additional refinement to your technical model. Once execution consistently matches the quality of your analysis, the results should begin to reflect the edge you've clearly developed.