MES1! No Trade — 2026-06-29
The objective is not to grade the P&L. It is to grade the decision.
Charts
Trade Review
Daily Trade Review – Monday, June 29, 2026
Market Narrative
Today's session was driven primarily by continued optimism surrounding the fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire and strength in technology stocks, while traders also reacted to the Supreme Court's decision temporarily preventing the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Although the overnight narrative remained moderately bullish, price action after the open quickly became erratic and lacked clean institutional confirmation.
As expected during a holiday-shortened week, liquidity was thinner than normal and produced several false directional moves before the market ultimately sold off sharply.
Pre-Market Thesis
Overall Bias
Slightly Bullish
The plan called for waiting for confirmation above Friday's highs while monitoring VIX for continued weakness.
Primary objectives:
- ▸Trade only A+ setups.
- ▸Maximum two trades.
- ▸Reduced position size.
- ▸No chasing moves.
- ▸Wait for displacement and confirmation.
Trade Summary
Trades Taken
None
This was a deliberate decision based on execution quality rather than hesitation.
Although both MES and MNQ eventually produced significant downside moves, neither provided the clean confirmation required by your model before accelerating.
Protecting capital by remaining flat was consistent with the trading plan established during the morning playbook.
Market Review
VIX
The VIX initially behaved as expected.
- ▸Previous Day Low (18.20) was swept overnight.
- ▸New overnight low established at 18.15.
- ▸At the open, VIX initially traded lower into 17.98, suggesting continued equity strength.
The key observation came after the first 15-minute candle.
Instead of providing a clean rejection inside the opening gap, VIX immediately produced a large bullish engulfing candle with virtually no lower wick before exploding through:
- ▸Daily Open (18.60)
- ▸Previous swing high (19.29)
Although the move ultimately signaled risk-off conditions, there was no retracement into premium pricing that met your entry requirements.
Your decision to remain patient was consistent with your trading model.
MES Review
Initial bullish thesis:
- ▸Sweep of pre-market low.
- ▸Reaction inside the bullish order block.
- ▸Looking for continuation through Friday's high.
Buy setup considered:
- ▸Entry: 7472.50
- ▸Stop: 7459.75
- ▸Target:
* Previous Day High * 7500.50
Price never provided sufficient confirmation.
After failing above Friday's highs, the market reversed aggressively.
Possible short setup later developed, but:
- ▸Stop loss exceeded acceptable risk.
- ▸No clean retracement into the last bullish candle.
- ▸No institutional confirmation.
Result:
No Trade
MNQ Review
Buy setup:
- ▸Entry: 29,666.25
Stop:
29,597.25
Target:
- ▸Previous Day High
- ▸29,894
Price initially respected the area before collapsing.
Potential short developed afterward:
Entry considered:
29,645
Stop:
29,785.75
Target:
29,281 (Daily Open)
However,
Price never returned into your premium entry zone before accelerating lower.
Again:
No confirmation.
No trade.
Execution Review
One of the biggest positives today was your patience.
You correctly identified:
- ▸VIX changing character.
- ▸MES failing previous highs.
- ▸MNQ losing structure.
However,
you refused to chase price after the move had already begun.
That discipline is exactly what you've been working toward throughout June.
Missing a move because your setup never materialized is fundamentally different from hesitating on a valid setup.
Today was the former.
Risk Management
Excellent.
Your weekly objectives remained intact.
- ▸No unnecessary exposure.
- ▸No revenge trading.
- ▸No forcing entries.
- ▸No increase in size.
- ▸Maximum trade rule respected.
Capital preservation remains the priority heading into the shortened holiday week.
Emotional & Psychological Review
Emotionally, today's review reflected maturity.
Rather than expressing frustration over missing the move, you repeatedly returned to the same conclusion:
"There wasn't confirmation."
That statement reflects growing confidence in your process.
You also demonstrated restraint by stepping back instead of trying to manufacture a late-session trade simply because the market moved.
This is a significant improvement compared to earlier in the month.
Rule Compliance
| Rule | Result |
|---|---|
| Followed PMP Bias | ✅ |
| Waited for Confirmation | ✅ |
| No Chasing | ✅ |
| Position Size Rules | ✅ |
| Maximum Two Trades | ✅ (0 Trades) |
| Preserved Capital | ✅ |
| Emotional Discipline | ✅ |
| Reviewed Intermarket Correlation | ✅ |
Account Summary
Accounts Traded
- ▸[broker] 300K #005
* Status: No trades executed * Balance: Unchanged
- ▸Remaining [broker] Evaluation and PA accounts
* Status: No activity * Balances: Unchanged
All accounts remain fully intact heading into Tuesday's session.
What Went Well
- ▸Followed the pre-market plan.
- ▸Correctly recognized the lack of institutional confirmation.
- ▸Avoided chasing after the market accelerated.
- ▸Read the VIX appropriately as it transitioned from risk-on to risk-off.
- ▸Maintained discipline during a low-liquidity holiday week.
- ▸Protected all trading accounts.
Areas for Improvement
Very little execution improvement is needed today.
The only area to continue studying is recognizing whether an aggressive entry model could eventually be developed for VIX gap rejections that do not provide textbook retracements.
This is a research topic—not something to add to your live trading plan until thoroughly backtested.
Lessons Learned
Sometimes the best trade is recognizing that the market has chosen to move without offering your edge.
Today's objective was not to predict direction—it was to execute only when your model aligned.
The market moved.
Your setup never did.
Those are two different things.
Remaining flat is a successful trading decision when your edge is absent.
RAS (Review Assessment Score)
| Category | Score |
|---|---|
| Narrative Alignment | 10 / 10 |
| Liquidity Map | 10 / 10 |
| Higher-Timeframe Structure | 10 / 10 |
| Lower-Timeframe Confirmation | 10 / 10 (correctly identified it never confirmed) |
| Risk Management | 10 / 10 |
| Execution Discipline | 10 / 10 |
| Emotional Control | 10 / 10 |
| Model Integrity | 10 / 10 |
Total: 80 / 80
RAS Score: 100.00%
Final Grade
A+ (100%)
This is exactly what professional trading looks like.
Many traders judge success by whether they made money. Your journal judges success by whether you executed your process. On June 29, you honored your plan from the pre-market review through the close. You recognized that neither MES nor MNQ provided the confirmation required by your model, accepted that the move would occur without you, and protected every account for another day. In the context of a holiday-shortened week and your stated objective of preserving capital while moving apartments, this was a textbook example of disciplined execution.
Cory publishes the working thesis before the session, not after — this Playbook and Trade Review are part of that same documented process. No signals, no highlight reel.
Read the full story →