2026-05-12

MES1!

📊 May 12, 2026 — Premarket Playbook (Updated Post-CPI)

🌍 Macro Narrative

Today’s catalysts:

🔴 8:30am — CPI Release

USD

Immediate Read

• ▸Core CPI came in hot
• ▸CPI y/y reaccelerated
• ▸Headline m/m came in flat

➡️ Overall read:

Mixed… but leaning hawkish / risk-off

This supports:

✅ Higher VIX ✅ Higher yields ✅ Pressure on indices

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Tentative — Fed Chair Nomination Vote

Markets still expect:

Warsh confirmation

Could create additional volatility if headlines hit during RTH.

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🔵 MES – Market Structure

Higher Timeframe Context

ATH (Yesterday)

7454.00

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Current Intraday Levels

DH

7443.75

DOP

7435.25

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NWOG (This Week)

• ▸7421.00 (H)
• ▸7412.50 (M)
• ▸7403.75 (L / WOP)

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Current Price

~7407.00

➡️ Sitting:

Inside lower quadrant of NWOG

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Liquidity Below

Swing Low

7402.50

(already tapped)

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PDL

7390.50

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Secondary Swing Low

7388.50

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Major Draw Lower

1H OB

7348.25

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Thursday PDL

7337.00

Sitting inside:

Daily +FVG

• ▸7345.50 (H)
• ▸7316.50 (M)
• ▸7287.25 (L)

Additional swing:

7327.25

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MES Read

Overnight:

✅ Sold off steadily ✅ Failed to reclaim premium pricing ✅ Sitting on key liquidity

➡️ Current condition:

Liquidation + support test

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🟣 VIX – Market Structure

VIX is leading the narrative today.

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NWOG

• ▸17.19 (L)
• ▸17.70 (M)
• ▸18.21 (H / WOP)

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Overnight Behavior

VIX gapped higher.

Took:

✅ Swing High 18.52

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NDOG

• ▸18.38 (L)
• ▸18.58 (M)
• ▸18.77 (H / DOP)

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DL

18.66

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DH

New High

19.01

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Liquidity Above

PWH

19.08

Secondary PWH

19.43

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1H Order Block

18.26

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VIX Read

Overnight:

✅ Gap higher ✅ Swept highs ✅ Holding premium after CPI

➡️ This confirms:

Risk-off positioning remains intact

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🟡 MNQ – Market Structure

MNQ remains the weakest index.

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ATH

29,480.50

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DH

29,456.50

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NWOG

• ▸29,339.75 (H)
• ▸29,317.25 (M)
• ▸29,295.00 (L)

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PDL Swept

29,222.25

Already taken.

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Current Draw

Daily +FVG

• ▸29,222.25 (H)
• ▸29,083.75 (M)
• ▸28,945.00 (L)

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Secondary Draw

Breaker

• ▸28,928.00 (H)
• ▸28,829.00 (M)
• ▸28,727.75 (L)

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MNQ Read

Overnight:

✅ Swept PDL ✅ Trading inside daily imbalance ✅ Leading weakness

➡️ NQ is:

The cleanest downside gauge right now

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🔗 Correlation Read

VIX

✅ Bullish overnight ✅ Bullish post-CPI ✅ Holding above NDOG

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MES / MNQ

✅ Selling overnight ✅ Trading into discounts ✅ Not reclaiming premium

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➡️ Correlation is:

Cleanly aligned risk-off

Unlike yesterday.

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⚠️ Market Condition

This is NOT:

❌ Monday barcode ❌ Balanced auction ❌ Fade-the-gap conditions

This IS:

CPI-driven displacement potential

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🎯 Trade Framework

🔴 Bearish Scenario (Active)

As long as:

VIX holds:

18.77

and especially:

18.58

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Targets:

🎯 19.08

🎯 19.43

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MES

If:

7390.50 breaks

7388.50 breaks

Targets:

🎯 7348.25

🎯 7337.00

🎯 Daily FVG

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MNQ

Targets:

🎯 29,083

🎯 28,945

🎯 Breaker below

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🟢 Bullish Fade Scenario (Only if CPI gets faded)

Need:

VIX lose:

18.58

Then:

18.38

Then potentially:

18.26 OB

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MES reclaim:

7412.50

7421.00

7435.25

Targets:

🎯 7443.75

🎯 7454 ATH

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MNQ reclaim:

29,222

29,295

29,317

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🚫 What I’m Avoiding

I’m not:

❌ Chasing first CPI candles ❌ Front-running reversals ❌ Trading without VIX confirmation ❌ Trading against clean correlation

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🕒 Trading Plan

Trading Window

✅ 7:00am–12:00pm

Highest Probability

✅ 8:30–10:30am

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Rule

If VIX holds premium and indices fail to reclaim… stay with risk-off.

If VIX loses 18.58 and indices reclaim premium… then the CPI move may get faded.

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🧠 Final Read (Your Voice)

CPI came in mixed but leaning hot.

Core CPI missed to the upside, year-over-year inflation reaccelerated, and that supports the overnight VIX strength and the selloff we were already seeing in ES and NQ.

VIX is holding premium pricing and now has clean upside targets at 19.08 and potentially 19.43.

NQ already swept previous day lows and is trading inside a daily fair value gap, making it the cleanest downside gauge.

ES is sitting right on key liquidity at the lower quadrant of the weekly opening gap.

As of now:

The bearish scenario is active until VIX loses 18.58.

No setup yet.

No reason to force anything.

Let price deliver… then wait for the A+ setup.