2026-06-11

MES1!

PMP – Thursday, June 11, 2026

Overnight Narrative

The market was already significantly bid overnight before the U.S. session:

• ▸MES was up roughly 50+ points
• ▸MNQ was up roughly 400 points
• ▸Both markets had rallied aggressively from Tuesday's lows

Then two catalysts hit:

Economic Data (8:30 AM)

Mixed data.

The hotter PPI is not equity-friendly, but rising claims suggest economic slowing.

Geopolitical Headline

Trump's statement regarding seizing Iranian oil infrastructure immediately created risk-off flows and likely contributed to the sharp selloff into the open.

This is important because today's moves may be driven more by geopolitical risk than traditional economic interpretation.

---

VIX Analysis

Current Structure

Current VIX:

• ▸~21.16

Important Levels:

Resistance

• ▸21.51 NWOG High
• ▸22.22 NDOG High
• ▸22.66 Previous Day High
• ▸23.34 Weekly High
• ▸24.30 Quarterly Open

Support

• ▸20.53 Daily Low
• ▸20.29 Weekly Open
• ▸20.06 Previous Day Low
• ▸19.87–18.74 1H Bullish FVG

---

VIX Narrative

The most important thing this morning:

VIX reclaimed the Daily Opening Gap and is holding above the Weekly Opening Gap.

That tells me fear has not been fully priced out.

For equities to become strongly bullish:

I would need to see:

• ▸VIX lose 20.53
• ▸Then lose 20.29
• ▸Then trade toward 19.87–18.74

Until that happens, VIX still supports a defensive posture.

---

MES Analysis

Current:

• ▸~7313

Key Structure

Daily Bullish FVG:

• ▸High: 7345.50
• ▸Mid: 7316.50
• ▸Low: 7287.25

Current price is sitting directly around the midpoint.

This is the most important level on the board today.

---

Bullish Scenario

Need to hold:

• ▸7316.50 midpoint
• ▸7287.25 FVG low

Targets:

1. ▸

   Daily High 7338.75

2. ▸

   Daily FVG High 7345.50

3. ▸

   Weekly Open 7368.25

4. ▸

   Yesterday High 7404.75

5. ▸

   NWOG:

   • ▸7403.75
   • ▸7412.50
   • ▸7421.00

If buyers defend the Daily FVG, these become realistic upside objectives.

---

Bearish Scenario

If 7287.25 breaks decisively:

Targets:

1. ▸

   7273.25 swing low

2. ▸

   Daily Open 7263.00

3. ▸

   Weekly Low 7232.50

4. ▸

   Daily Bullish FVG

   • ▸7254.75
   • ▸7223.00
   • ▸7191.00

Primary Bearish Target

7191.00

This is where multiple higher-timeframe inefficiencies begin stacking together.

Below that:

• ▸

  Previous Week Low ~7131

• ▸

  April NWOG:

  • ▸7164.00
  • ▸7133.75
  • ▸7103.25

---

MNQ Analysis

Current:

• ▸~28790

Key Levels

Support:

• ▸

  Weekly Open 28843.50

• ▸

  Daily Open 28458.00

• ▸

  Daily Low 28264.25

• ▸

  Daily Bullish FVG:

  • ▸28553.50
  • ▸28260.00
  • ▸27966.50

Resistance:

• ▸

  Daily High 28935.00

• ▸

  Previous Day High 29251.00

• ▸

  4H Bearish FVG:

  • ▸29195.75
  • ▸29405.50
  • ▸29615.25

---

Bullish Scenario

Need:

• ▸Reclaim Weekly Open
• ▸Hold above 28843

Targets:

1. ▸28935 Daily High
2. ▸29195 4H FVG Low
3. ▸29405 4H FVG Mid
4. ▸29615 4H FVG High

Primary Bullish Target

29405.50

That remains the strongest magnet above price.

---

Bearish Scenario

If weakness continues:

Targets:

1. ▸28553 Daily FVG High
2. ▸28260 Daily FVG Mid
3. ▸Weekly Low 28227
4. ▸Daily FVG Low 27966

Primary Bearish Target

27966.50

Below that:

May NWOG:

• ▸27888.25
• ▸27835.50
• ▸27782.75

---

Trading Focus Today

Your conclusion in the recording is exactly where I'd be mentally today:

Don't predict.

Wait for displacement.

The recent market has been doing two things:

1. ▸Sweeping liquidity in one direction.
2. ▸Delivering the real move later.

You've correctly identified that many of the recent momentum moves were tradeable but not necessarily the higher probability directional move.

Today I would focus heavily on:

• ▸Displacement from PDH/PDL
• ▸Displacement from Daily FVG boundaries
• ▸VIX confirmation
• ▸Whether the Trump/Iran headline continues to be repriced

---

My Bias Right Now

Slightly Bearish / Neutral

Reasons:

• ▸VIX remains elevated above 21.
• ▸Trump/Iran headline creates uncertainty.
• ▸PPI was hotter than expected.
• ▸Both MES and MNQ are sitting under important reclaim levels.

However:

I am not aggressively bearish because both MES and MNQ are still sitting inside major bullish daily fair value gaps.

The market is essentially deciding whether yesterday's CPI rally was a genuine repricing higher or simply buy-side liquidity before another leg lower.

Today's displacement should answer that question.

Key level of the day: MES 7316.50 (Daily FVG midpoint)

That level likely determines whether we're targeting 7400+ or revisiting 7232–7191.