2026-06-16

MES1!

PMP – Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Overnight Narrative

Markets continue to digest the weekend U.S.–Iran agreement headlines that fueled Monday's gap higher and record closes in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. However, overnight trading has become noticeably more cautious.

The most important development this morning is not economic data—it is geopolitical uncertainty.

Israeli media is reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu informed President Trump that Israel is not bound by the Lebanon clause contained within the proposed agreement, creating fresh uncertainty around whether the ceasefire framework can hold together as currently structured.

This matters because the market's bullish repricing over the last 48 hours has largely been built upon the assumption that geopolitical tensions were materially declining.

For now:

• ▸Markets remain near all-time highs
• ▸VIX remains near yearly lows
• ▸No red-folder economic releases
• ▸G7 meetings continue
• ▸Headlines remain the primary catalyst

The challenge today is the same challenge we faced Monday:

Price is moving higher, but it is doing so without offering many clean A+ setups.

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Economic Calendar

8:15 AM

8:30 AM

All Day

• ▸G7 Meetings (Day 2)

No red-folder events today.

Tomorrow becomes the more important session because of Trump's scheduled remarks and additional market-moving catalysts.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price

• ▸~16.14

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Yesterday's Range

• ▸High: 16.85
• ▸Low: 15.98

Despite equities making new highs, VIX never truly collapsed lower.

Instead, it spent most of Monday chopping sideways.

That lack of continued downside expansion is one reason yesterday's rally felt more like a grind than an impulsive move.

---

Resistance

Swing High

• ▸16.51

Weekly Open

• ▸16.78

NWOG

• ▸16.78
• ▸17.23
• ▸17.68

1H Bullish FVG

• ▸18.12
• ▸17.41
• ▸16.69

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Support

Monthly Open

• ▸15.88

Previous Day Low

• ▸15.56

Weekly Low

• ▸15.18

Yearly Open

• ▸14.85

Previous Week Low

• ▸14.75

---

VIX Narrative

This chart remains the key to understanding why Monday lacked conviction.

The market moved higher, but VIX did not continue aggressively lower.

Instead, VIX simply stalled.

That creates a warning:

If geopolitical headlines deteriorate regarding the Lebanon clause, VIX has room to reclaim:

• ▸16.69
• ▸17.23
• ▸17.68

A move above those levels would likely pressure equities.

---

MES Analysis

Current Price

• ▸~7631

Current Range

Daily High

• ▸7634.25

Daily Low

• ▸7612.00

Daily Open

• ▸7626.50

Very small range considering yesterday's expansion.

---

Liquidity Already Taken

Yesterday MES removed:

• ▸Previous Day High (7611.50)
• ▸Prior Swing High (7628.50)
• ▸All-Time High

New ATH:

• ▸7648.75

---

Bullish Structure

Current structure remains bullish.

Your projection still looks valid:

• ▸0 → 1 completed
• ▸1 → 2 retracement underway
• ▸Potential 2 → 3 continuation toward 7675

---

Downside References

Swing Low

• ▸7582.75

Monthly Open

• ▸7594.75

Small FVG

• ▸7569.75
• ▸7561.25

NWOG

• ▸7542.00
• ▸7515.50
• ▸7489.00

---

MES Narrative

The market is doing exactly what strong bullish markets often do:

It is refusing to sell off.

The problem is:

It also isn't providing quality entries.

Price is simply grinding upward inside a very tight range after already achieving the major objective of taking ATH liquidity.

That creates a poor reward-to-risk environment unless we see displacement.

---

MNQ Analysis

Current Price

• ▸~30,937

New ATH

• ▸30,975.50

---

Key Levels Above

ATH

• ▸30,975.50

Psychological Level

• ▸31,000

Expansion Target

• ▸31,100
• ▸31,250
• ▸31,500

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Support

Daily Open

• ▸30,833

Daily Low

• ▸30,755.25

Previous Swing Low

• ▸30,509.50

Monthly Open

• ▸30,416.50

1H FVG

• ▸30,422.50
• ▸30,370.25

---

MNQ Narrative

MNQ continues to be the strongest chart.

Unlike MES, which is consolidating directly under ATH, MNQ continues printing fresh highs.

However:

This move is becoming increasingly extended.

The farther price gets away from:

• ▸Daily Open
• ▸Monthly Open
• ▸Recent FVGs

The harder it becomes to justify fresh longs without confirmation.

---

Geopolitical Risk

The biggest market-moving headline this morning:

Netanyahu informed Trump that Israel is not bound by the Lebanon clause in the agreement.

This introduces uncertainty into what markets had previously viewed as a straightforward de-escalation agreement.

The market is currently treating this as noise.

But if additional reports suggest friction between the parties involved, VIX could quickly begin repricing geopolitical risk.

This is why chasing highs remains dangerous.

---

Trading Focus Today

Your assessment is exactly right:

"It's another sit on your hands kind of day."

The market has now gone:

• ▸Monday: Gap higher
• ▸Tuesday: Grinding higher

without producing many clean institutional retracements.

Those are often the sessions that punish impatience.

---

My Bias

MES: Bullish

As long as:

• ▸7594.75 Monthly Open holds

Targets:

• ▸7648.75 ATH
• ▸7675
• ▸7700

---

MNQ: Bullish

As long as:

• ▸30833 Daily Open holds

Targets:

• ▸30975 ATH
• ▸31000
• ▸31100+

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VIX: Bearish / Neutral

As long as:

• ▸16.78 remains resistance

Targets:

• ▸15.88 Monthly Open
• ▸15.56 PDL
• ▸14.85 Yearly Open

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Day Traders Versus Summary

Market Condition

Bullish trend, low volatility, headline-driven environment.

Best Opportunity

Wait for:

• ▸ATH rejection with displacement
• ▸Pullback into PD Arrays
• ▸VIX expansion above 16.69–17.23

Biggest Risk

Mistaking a slow grind higher for a high-probability setup.

Discipline Reminder

This week is not about finding trades.

It is about finding A+ trades.

A short holiday week, low volatility, and headline-driven price action create the exact environment where protecting capital becomes more important than generating trades. Stay disciplined. Stay patient.