2026-06-18

MES1!

PMP – Thursday, June 18, 2026

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM – Key Risk Window

These are not confirmed bullish yet. The narrative is only that markets are waiting on data that could validate or challenge the current risk-on tone.

A strong Philly Fed and lower claims would support equities. A miss in Philly Fed or higher claims could pressure risk assets and support VIX.

Later Data

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Corrected Narrative

The market is not trading on confirmed economic strength yet. It is trading on a mix of:

1. ▸Iran/U.S. deal optimism
2. ▸Uncertainty around the final 60-day negotiation window
3. ▸Post-FOMC digestion after Powell’s hawkish tone
4. ▸Pending 8:30 data that could shift the morning bias

So the correct read is:

Risk assets are trying to stabilize, but the 8:30 data can still change the tone.

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VIX

VIX remains the main tell.

Current area: around 17.50

If VIX holds below 17.68 and starts pressing toward 16.78 / 16.55, that supports MES and MNQ upside.

If VIX reclaims 17.68 and pushes toward 18.12 / 18.74, that supports equity weakness.

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MES

Current decision area:

• ▸7542.00 NWOG High / Weekly Open
• ▸7515.00 Daily Open
• ▸7489.00 NWOG Mid
• ▸7436.00 NWOG Low

Bullish only if MES reclaims and holds:

• ▸7552.00
• ▸7560.25
• ▸7568.50

Then upside targets:

• ▸7594.75 Monthly Open
• ▸7604.25 swing high
• ▸7612.50 PDH
• ▸7636.50 PDH
• ▸7648.75 ATH

Bearish below 7542 with weakness through 7515.

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MNQ

Key decision level:

• ▸30416.50 Monthly Open

Upside resistance:

• ▸30496.25
• ▸30623.50
• ▸30750.75
• ▸30975.50 ATH

Downside targets:

• ▸30284 premarket low
• ▸30100 weekly open / NWOG high
• ▸29922 weekly low
• ▸29677 NWOG low

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Final Plan

This is a low-risk, confirmation-only day.

No chasing before the 8:30 reaction settles.

Best long condition:

VIX rejects lower + MES holds 7542/7515 + MNQ holds monthly open.

Best short condition:

VIX reclaims 17.68 + MES loses 7515 + MNQ rejects monthly open.

#staydisciplined #staypatient