2026-06-22

MES1!

PMP – Monday, June 22, 2026

Macro Narrative

Weekend headline risk remains the dominant driver.

CNBC headline:

Shipping stalls in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran declares the key waterway closed again.

This shifts the market back into a geopolitical risk environment after last week's optimism surrounding the Iran agreement. The market is now trying to determine whether the ceasefire framework is deteriorating or simply experiencing another round of negotiations.

The result is elevated uncertainty and a higher VIX.

There are no major economic reports today. The bigger catalysts this week are:

• ▸GDP
• ▸Core PCE
• ▸Unemployment Claims

Today's session will likely be driven by geopolitics and positioning.

---

VIX

VIX gapped higher overnight.

Current Structure

Current price: 17.29

Weekly NWOG:

• ▸High (Daily Open): 17.48
• ▸Midpoint: 16.94
• ▸Low: 16.40

Thursday's NDOG:

• ▸Low: 17.23
• ▸Midpoint: 17.84
• ▸High: 18.44

1H Inverted FVG:

• ▸Low: 18.74
• ▸Midpoint: 19.31
• ▸High: 19.87

Previous Week High:

• ▸18.84

---

VIX Bullish Scenario (Risk-Off)

If geopolitical fears continue:

Targets:

1. ▸17.67 (Today's High)
2. ▸17.84 (Thursday NDOG Mid)
3. ▸18.44 (Thursday NDOG High)
4. ▸18.74 (1H IFVG)
5. ▸18.84 PW High
6. ▸19.31
7. ▸19.87

---

VIX Bearish Scenario (Risk-On)

If tensions calm:

Targets lower:

• ▸17.19 overnight low
• ▸16.94 NWOG midpoint
• ▸16.67 quarter level
• ▸16.40 NWOG low
• ▸16.35 previous day low
• ▸16.02 swing low
• ▸Monthly Open 15.88

---

MNQ

Current price: 30,769

Premarket

High:

• ▸30,828.50

Low:

• ▸30,686.25

Weekly NWOG:

• ▸High: 30,651
• ▸Mid: 30,616
• ▸Low (Weekly Open): 30,580.75

Monthly Open:

• ▸30,416.50

---

Bullish Scenario

Liquidity above has already begun to build.

Targets:

1. ▸30,828.50 (Today's High)
2. ▸30,900
3. ▸ATH 30,975.50
4. ▸Psychological 31,000

If ATH is broken, continuation higher remains possible.

---

Bearish Scenario

If VIX expands:

Targets:

1. ▸30,686.25 overnight low
2. ▸30,651 NWOG High
3. ▸30,616 midpoint
4. ▸30,580.75 weekly open
5. ▸30,524 swing low
6. ▸Monthly Open 30,416.50
7. ▸30,336.75 swing low

---

MES

Current Price:

7563

Premarket High:

7578

Premarket Low:

7556.75

Weekly NWOG:

• ▸High: 7557.00
• ▸Mid: 7550.50
• ▸Low (Weekly Open): 7543.75

Monthly Open:

7594.75

---

Bullish Scenario

Price swept overnight highs but failed to truly displace.

Upside targets:

1. ▸7578.00 (Daily High)
2. ▸7583.00 previous day high
3. ▸Monthly Open 7594.75
4. ▸7612.50 PDH
5. ▸7636.50 PDH
6. ▸ATH 7648.75

---

Bearish Scenario

If VIX pushes higher and geopolitical risk increases:

Targets:

1. ▸7556.75 overnight low
2. ▸7552.50 swing low
3. ▸Weekly NWOG midpoint 7550.50
4. ▸Weekly Open 7543.75
5. ▸7528.50 swing low
6. ▸7513 daily low
7. ▸7472.25 low of week

---

Market Structure

MES and MNQ both swept overnight highs.

However:

• ▸Neither market truly displaced higher.
• ▸Both have traded back into their ranges.
• ▸Liquidity has accumulated above and below.

This suggests the opening drive may be needed before the real direction becomes apparent.

---

Bias

Neutral → Slightly Risk-Off

Bullish case:

• ▸VIX falls back into 16.94-16.40.
• ▸MES holds 7550 area.
• ▸MNQ holds above 30,651.

Bearish case:

• ▸Strait of Hormuz headlines intensify.
• ▸VIX reclaims 17.84 and expands toward 18.44.
• ▸MES loses 7543.
• ▸MNQ trades back below 30,580.

---

Weekly Drivers

⭐ Thursday:

• ▸GDP
• ▸Unemployment Claims

⭐ Friday:

• ▸Core PCE (highest-impact report this week)

Because Monday has no major economic releases, headline risk surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz will likely dominate sentiment until later in the week.

Plan

Low risk.

Wait for displacement.

Avoid forcing trades inside the opening range.

Let price reveal whether the overnight sweep becomes accumulation for continuation higher or distribution before another leg lower.