2026-06-23

MES1!

PMP – Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Macro Narrative

CNBC Headline

Tech rout intensifies as sell-off grips global stocks

The market finally experienced the correction that had largely been avoided during the previous weeks. Much of the weakness is being attributed to continued uncertainty surrounding Iran and a broad repricing in technology stocks, particularly AI-related names.

After sweeping multiple downside objectives overnight, the market is now trading deep inside old June 12 weekly opening gaps and overlapping order blocks. Many weekly targets have already been achieved, which increases the odds of a more two-sided environment rather than continued straight-line selling.

This is becoming a patience market.

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Economic Calendar

8:15 AM

ADP Weekly Employment Change

• ▸Previous: 25.5K
• ▸No forecast provided

9:45 AM

Flash Manufacturing PMI

• ▸Forecast: 54.6
• ▸Previous: 55.1

Flash Services PMI

• ▸Forecast: 51.1
• ▸Previous: 50.7

10:00 AM

Richmond Manufacturing Index

• ▸Forecast: 8
• ▸Previous: 13

No major red folders today.

The market will likely continue reacting primarily to positioning and headline risk.

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VIX

Overnight

VIX exploded higher overnight.

Yesterday's close:

• ▸17.28

Today's Daily Open:

• ▸19.67

Current price:

• ▸~19.74

Daily Low:

• ▸19.58

Premarket High:

• ▸20.10

Weekly High:

• ▸20.54

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NDOG Structure

Today's NDOG:

• ▸High (Open): 19.67
• ▸Upper Quarter: 19.07
• ▸Midpoint: 18.48
• ▸Lower Quarter: 17.88

Yesterday's High:

• ▸17.92

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VIX Bullish Scenario (Risk-Off)

If fear returns:

Targets:

1. ▸20.10 premarket high
2. ▸20.54 weekly high
3. ▸22.23 previous week high
4. ▸22.66 previous day high
5. ▸20.97 old NDOG low
6. ▸23.38 midpoint of old gap

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VIX Bearish Scenario (Risk-On)

Gap compression targets:

1. ▸19.58 daily low
2. ▸19.07 upper quarter
3. ▸18.48 midpoint
4. ▸17.88 lower quarter
5. ▸17.92 yesterday high

A VIX retracement would support a bounce in equities.

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MES

Current price:

7446

Daily Open:

7543.25

Daily High:

7546.50

Daily Low:

7421.50

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June 12 Weekly Gap

High:

• ▸7542.00

Midpoint:

• ▸7489.00

Low:

• ▸7436.00

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Order Block

High:

• ▸7443.00

Midpoint:

• ▸7413.00

Low:

• ▸7383.00

Previous Day Low:

• ▸7366.50

Premarket highs:

• ▸7449.50
• ▸7455.50

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MES Bullish Scenario

Most major downside liquidity has already been swept:

• ▸Monday low (7513)
• ▸Friday low
• ▸Previous week low

If buyers gain displacement:

Targets:

1. ▸7449.50
2. ▸7455.50
3. ▸7489.00 (June 12 NWOG midpoint)
4. ▸7512.00 swing high
5. ▸Potential continuation higher

Because lows have already been raided, a larger relief rally remains possible.

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MES Bearish Scenario

Continuation targets:

1. ▸7426.25
2. ▸7421.50 weekly low
3. ▸7413.00 order block midpoint
4. ▸7383.00 order block low
5. ▸7366.50 previous day low

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MNQ

Current price:

29,873

Weekly Low:

29,750.50

Premarket Swing High:

29,933.25

Daily Open:

30,662

Daily High:

30,699.75

---

June 12 NWOG

High:

• ▸30,101

Upper Quarter:

• ▸29,995

Midpoint:

• ▸29,889

Lower Quarter:

• ▸29,783

Low:

• ▸29,677

---

Higher Timeframe Order Block

High:

• ▸29,637.25

Midpoint:

• ▸29,494.25

Low:

• ▸29,351.00

Previous Day Low:

• ▸29,231.25

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MNQ Bullish Scenario

MES is showing slightly stronger lower timeframe structure while NQ remains weaker.

Need displacement above:

29,933.25

Then targets become:

1. ▸30,054.25
2. ▸30,101 NWOG High
3. ▸Weekly Open 30,580.75
4. ▸Midpoint 30,616
5. ▸High 30,651
6. ▸Monthly Open 30,416.50

Above there, a larger retracement becomes possible.

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MNQ Bearish Scenario

If selling resumes:

Targets:

1. ▸29,750.50 weekly low
2. ▸29,677 NWOG Low
3. ▸29,637.25 HTF order block high
4. ▸29,494.25 midpoint
5. ▸29,351 low
6. ▸29,231 previous day low

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Market Structure

MES and MNQ have already completed much of the downside objective for the week.

The downside has become increasingly extended.

Interesting divergence:

• ▸MES has begun showing small lower timeframe bullish structure.
• ▸MNQ remains weaker and has not confirmed.

This divergence means patience is required.

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Bias

Neutral to Slightly Bullish (Relief Rally)

Bullish case

• ▸VIX compresses lower.
• ▸MES displaces above 7449.50 and 7455.50.
• ▸MNQ regains 29,933 and 30,054.

Bearish case

• ▸VIX reclaims 20.10 and 20.54.
• ▸MNQ loses 29,750.
• ▸MES loses 7421.

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Trading Plan

Continue to be patient.

The recent selloffs have often occurred without clean entries or defined risk.

There have been very few A+ setups.

Avoid chasing momentum.

If displacement develops and structure confirms, participate.

Otherwise:

No setup = no trade.

Trade the process, not the emotion.

As difficult as sitting on your hands feels, preserving capital during low-quality conditions is part of the edge.