2026-06-24

MES1!

PMP – Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Macro Narrative

CNBC Headline

Stock futures are mixed ahead of Micron earnings; tech stocks rebound after sell-off

After Tuesday's liquidation, markets spent the overnight session consolidating. VIX is gradually compressing while equities are attempting to stabilize inside higher timeframe support. The broader narrative remains unchanged:

• ▸

  AI and semiconductor weakness continue to pressure tech.

• ▸

  Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Israel, Iran, and U.S. negotiations remains a risk.

• ▸

  No major economic catalysts are scheduled today.

• ▸

  Market structure favors patience and reacting rather than predicting.

---

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM

Current Account

• ▸

  Forecast: -212B

• ▸

  Previous: -191B

10:00 AM

New Home Sales

• ▸

  Forecast: 638K

• ▸

  Previous: 622K

10:30 AM

Crude Oil Inventories

• ▸

  Forecast: -3.9M

• ▸

  Previous: -8.3M

4:00 PM

Bank Stress Test Results

No major red folders.

Headline risk and oil remain the biggest potential catalysts.

---

VIX

Current Conditions

Current Price:

18.94

Daily Open:

19.13

Daily High:

19.41

Daily Low:

18.94

London Low:

19.07

London High:

19.32

---

Today's NDOG

High:

19.49

Midpoint:

19.31

Low:

19.13

---

Yesterday's NDOG

High:

19.67

Upper Quarter:

19.07

Midpoint:

18.48

Lower Quarter:

17.88

Low:

17.28

Weekly Opening Price:

17.48

---

VIX Bearish Scenario (Bullish Equities)

VIX has now broken beneath London lows and daily lows.

Targets:

1. ▸

   18.61 weekly low

2. ▸

   18.48 yesterday midpoint

3. ▸

   17.88 lower quadrant

4. ▸

   17.48 weekly opening price

5. ▸

   17.28 yesterday gap low

Continued compression supports further equity recovery.

---

VIX Bullish Scenario (Risk-Off)

Need reclaim above:

19.31

Then targets become:

1. ▸

   19.49

2. ▸

   19.67

3. ▸

   20.29 NWOG high

4. ▸

   21.25 NDOG low

5. ▸

   21.73 midpoint

6. ▸

   22.22 high

---

MNQ

Current Price:

29,815

Daily Open:

29,766.25

Daily High:

29,891.75

Daily Low:

29,581.50

Weekly Low:

29,577.25

---

June 12 NWOG

High:

30,100

Midpoint:

29,888.50

Low:

29,677

---

1H Order Block

High:

29,637.25

Midpoint:

29,494.25

Low:

29,351

Previous Day Low:

29,231.25

4H Order Block Above:

High:

29,021.25

---

Bullish Scenario

Current recovery structure favors upside while VIX compresses.

Upside targets:

1. ▸

   29,891.75 daily high

2. ▸

   29,915.50 swing high

3. ▸

   30,053.75

4. ▸

   30,100 June 12 NWOG high

5. ▸

   Monthly Open 30,416.50

---

Bearish Scenario

If recovery fails:

Targets:

1. ▸

   29,654.25

2. ▸

   29,614.75

3. ▸

   Weekly Low 29,577.25

4. ▸

   29,494.25 order block midpoint

5. ▸

   29,351 order block low

6. ▸

   29,231.25 previous day low

---

MES

Current Price:

7455

Daily Open:

7449.00

Daily High:

7460.00

Premarket Low:

7443.75

Daily Low:

7420.25

Weekly Low:

7415.00

---

June 12 NWOG

High:

7489.00

Midpoint:

7489.00

Lower Target:

7436.00

---

4H Order Block

High:

7443.00

Midpoint:

7413.00

Low:

7383.00

Previous Day Low:

7366.50

---

Bullish Scenario

VIX continues making new lows while equities are beginning to attack overnight highs.

Upside targets:

1. ▸

   7460.00 daily high

2. ▸

   7476.50 swing high

3. ▸

   7489.00 NWOG midpoint

4. ▸

   7491.25 swing high

5. ▸

   7512.00

6. ▸

   Weekly Open 7543.75

Above there, larger upside repair becomes possible.

---

Bearish Scenario

Failure above current range:

1. ▸

   7443.75 premarket low

2. ▸

   Equal lows 7439.25

3. ▸

   Swing low 7427.00

4. ▸

   Daily low 7420.25

5. ▸

   Weekly low 7415.00

6. ▸

   Order block midpoint 7413.00

7. ▸

   Order block low 7383.00

8. ▸

   Previous day low 7366.50

---

Intermarket Notes

Interesting development this morning:

VIX has already broken below London lows and daily lows.

Meanwhile:

• ▸

  MES has started taking out overnight highs.

• ▸

  YM is leading.

• ▸

  MNQ is lagging but attempting to follow.

This is constructive.

The market is beginning to show positive divergence versus VIX.

---

Bias

Slightly Bullish

The overnight session has been largely rotational, but:

• ▸

  VIX is compressing.

• ▸

  MES and YM have begun taking highs.

• ▸

  NQ is lagging but trying to participate.

The key remains whether NQ can confirm.

---

Trading Plan

Remain patient.

This week has punished aggressive trading and rewarded selectivity.

Bullish case

• ▸

  VIX continues lower.

• ▸

  MES clears 7460 and 7476.

• ▸

  NQ regains 29,892 and 29,915.

Bearish case

• ▸

  VIX reclaims 19.31.

• ▸

  MES loses 7443 and 7427.

• ▸

  NQ loses weekly lows.

No setup = no trade.

The market has become much more reactive to headlines than clean structure. Preserve capital, allow displacement to occur first, and only participate when the model presents an A+ opportunity.