2026-06-25
Market Context
Market Dashboard
Chart Analysis / Live Chart
Working Thesis
MES1!
PMP – Thursday, June 25, 2026
Macro Narrative
CNBC Headline
Nasdaq futures rally as Micron surges after earnings; Wall Street awaits key inflation reading
Micron's stronger-than-expected earnings have boosted sentiment in semiconductor stocks overnight, helping Nasdaq futures outperform after Tuesday's volatility. However, today is all about the 8:30 AM ET data dump. With Core PCE, GDP, and Jobless Claims all released simultaneously, traders should expect elevated volatility and avoid forcing trades before the market establishes direction.
Geopolitical concerns surrounding Israel, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz remain a headline risk, but the primary catalyst today shifts back to macroeconomic data.
Economic Calendar
8:30 AM ET (Major Market Driver)
| Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | In-line. Neutral for inflation. |
| Final GDP q/q | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | Stronger growth than expected. Bullish economy. |
| Final GDP Price Index q/q | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | Slightly hotter inflation. |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 215K | 225K | 227K (revised) | Labor market stronger than expected. |
| Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | Strong business investment. |
| Durable Goods Orders m/m | -4.5% | -5.0% | 8.0% | Better than forecast despite contraction. |
| Personal Income m/m | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | Strong consumer income. |
| Personal Spending m/m | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | Consumers continue spending. |
Remaining Events
- ▸
8:45 AM – FOMC Governor Bowman Speaks
- ▸
10:30 AM – Natural Gas Storage
- ▸Forecast: 67B
- ▸Previous: 73B
- ▸
3:40 PM – FOMC Williams Speaks
- ▸
6:30 PM – FOMC Goolsbee Speaks
Macro Interpretation
Today's report is broadly risk-on.
While Core PCE came in exactly as expected (0.3%), virtually every growth-related metric surprised positively:
- ▸GDP beat expectations.
- ▸Jobless Claims came in lower than forecast.
- ▸Durable Goods exceeded expectations.
- ▸Personal Income and Spending both accelerated.
The data suggests inflation isn't materially worsening, while the economy remains resilient. That combination is supportive for equities, although traders should still expect significant volatility immediately after the release.
VIX
Current Conditions
Current Price:
18.07
Daily Open:
18.11
Current High:
18.17
Current Low:
17.87
Previous Day Low:
18.04 (taken)
London High:
18.16 (taken)
Today's NDOG
High:
18.63
Midpoint:
18.37
Low / Opening Price:
18.11
Key Higher-Timeframe Levels
Tuesday NDOG:
- ▸High: 19.67
- ▸Mid: 19.49
- ▸Lower Mid: 19.31
- ▸Low: 19.13
Weekly Opening Price:
17.48
Current NWOG:
- ▸High: 17.48
- ▸Mid: 16.94
- ▸Low: 16.40
VIX Bearish Scenario (Bullish Equities)
The VIX has already:
- ▸Taken yesterday's low.
- ▸Taken London's high and reversed.
- ▸Remains beneath today's opening gap.
Downside targets:
- ▸17.88
- ▸Weekly Open 17.48
- ▸17.05 swing low
- ▸NWOG Mid 16.94
- ▸NWOG Low 16.40
Continued compression favors higher equity prices.
VIX Bullish Scenario (Risk-Off)
If VIX reclaims today's gap:
Targets:
- ▸18.37
- ▸18.63
- ▸19.07
- ▸Order Block Low 19.27
- ▸Order Block Mid 19.60
- ▸Order Block High 19.92
- ▸Previous Gap High 20.46
MNQ
Current Price:
30,123
Daily Open:
30,095.75
Daily High:
30,217.75
Daily Low:
29,924.00
Key Structure
June 12 NWOG:
- ▸High: 30,100.00
- ▸Mid: 29,888.50
- ▸Low: 29,677.00
1H Bullish Fair Value Gap:
- ▸High: 30,044.00
- ▸Mid: 29,786.25
- ▸Low: 29,528.50
Monthly Open:
30,416.50
Bullish Scenario
The overnight recovery continues after Micron earnings.
Upside targets:
- ▸30,217.75 daily high
- ▸30,416.50 Monthly Open
- ▸30,580.75 NWOG Low
- ▸30,616.00 NWOG Mid
- ▸30,651.00 NWOG High
- ▸Previous Day High 30,699.75
- ▸All-Time High 30,967.75
Bearish Scenario
Failure after the news:
Targets:
- ▸29,924.00 daily low
- ▸29,888.50 NWOG Mid
- ▸29,786.25 FVG Mid
- ▸29,677.00 NWOG Low
- ▸29,528.50 FVG Low
- ▸29,405.50 4H FVG Mid
- ▸29,195.75 iFVG Low
MES
Current Price:
7,488.50
Daily Open:
7,477.25
Daily High:
7,491.25
Daily Low:
7,452.50
Weekly Low:
7,404.00
Key Structure
Current NWOG:
- ▸Mid: 7,489.00
- ▸Upper Quarter: 7,515.50
- ▸High: 7,542.00
Weekly Open:
7,543.75
Upper NWOG:
- ▸Mid: 7,550.50
- ▸High: 7,557.00
1H Bullish FVG:
- ▸High: 7,465.75
- ▸Mid: 7,448.75
- ▸Low: 7,431.50
Bullish Order Block:
- ▸High: 7,443.00
- ▸Mid: 7,412.75
- ▸Low: 7,382.75
Bullish Scenario
Price responded positively to the economic data but quickly returned inside the overnight range, showing that confirmation is still needed.
Upside targets:
- ▸Previous Day High 7,496.50
- ▸7,515.50 Upper Quarter
- ▸7,542.00 NWOG High
- ▸Weekly Open 7,543.75
- ▸7,550.50 NWOG Mid
- ▸7,557.00 NWOG High
- ▸7,599.25 Weekly High
Bearish Scenario
If buyers fail to hold the post-news reaction:
Targets:
- ▸7,472.25 swing low
- ▸7,465.75 FVG High
- ▸7,448.75 FVG Mid
- ▸7,431.50 FVG Low
- ▸Weekly Low 7,404.00
- ▸Order Block Mid 7,412.75
- ▸Order Block Low 7,382.75
- ▸Previous Day Low 7,366.50
Intermarket Notes
- ▸Micron earnings are providing leadership for technology stocks.
- ▸Core PCE was exactly in line with expectations, removing a major inflation surprise.
- ▸GDP, Employment, Income, and Spending all came in stronger than expected.
- ▸VIX remains below yesterday's low, favoring continued equity strength if it cannot reclaim 18.37.
Immediately after the release, both ES and NQ spiked higher but retraced back into their overnight ranges. This is a reminder that initial news reactions are not always the true move. Let the market establish displacement before committing capital.
Bias
Moderately Bullish
The macro data favors buyers, but price has not yet delivered a clean A+ confirmation.
Bullish confirmation:
- ▸VIX remains below 18.11 and continues toward 17.88.
- ▸MES clears 7,496.50 and holds above the June 12 NWOG midpoint.
- ▸MNQ sustains above 30,100 and attacks 30,217.
Bearish confirmation:
- ▸VIX reclaims 18.37 and begins targeting the 19.27 order block.
- ▸MES loses 7,472 and falls back into the 1H FVG.
- ▸MNQ loses 30,044 and begins filling the 1H FVG toward 29,786.
Trading Plan
Today's environment is driven almost entirely by the 8:30 AM data release. The first move after the news was rejected, with both MES and MNQ returning to their overnight ranges. Avoid chasing the initial spike.
Wait for displacement, a retracement into a premium/discount array, and confirmation from the VIX before entering. If no clean setup develops, staying flat is a winning decision. As you've reinforced throughout this month, preserving capital in headline-driven conditions is just as important as capturing the right trade.
Bias by Ticker
MES1! * VIX remains below 18.11 and continues toward 17.88. * MES clears 7,496.50 and holds above the June 12 NWOG midpoint. * MNQ sustains above 30,100 and attacks 30,217.
The VIX has already: If VIX reclaims today's gap:
* VIX remains below 18.11 and continues toward 17.88. * MES clears 7,496.50 and holds above the June 12 NWOG midpoint. * MNQ sustains above 30,100 and attacks 30,217. * VIX reclaims 18.37 and begins targeting the 19.27…
Cory publishes the working thesis before the session, not after — this Playbook and Trade Review are part of that same documented process. No signals, no highlight reel.
Read the full story →