2026-06-29

MES1!

PMP – Monday, June 29, 2026

CNBC Headline

Stock futures rise, but fragile U.S.-Iran truce keeps oil markets on edge: Live updates

Overnight futures are trading modestly higher as investors continue to monitor the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While the immediate risk of a broader regional conflict has eased, markets remain sensitive to headlines surrounding the truce and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain volatile as traders assess the potential impact on global energy supplies, while equity futures are attempting to build on last week's recovery. With a holiday-shortened trading week ahead and lighter institutional participation expected, headline risk is likely to remain a primary market driver alongside this week's employment data.

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Weekly Theme

This is a holiday-shortened trading week with U.S. markets closed Friday (Independence Day observed). Liquidity will likely begin to thin as the week progresses, making sustained moves less reliable after Wednesday.

From a trading standpoint, this is also a transition week personally:

• ▸Moving into a new apartment
• ▸Reduced screen time
• ▸Smaller position sizing
• ▸Maximum 2 trades per day unless already green
• ▸Primary objective: Finish June by executing your plan, not maximizing P&L.

This fits well with the current market environment.

Goal for the week: Protect June's progress by trading only A+ setups and remaining disciplined.

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Weekly Economic Calendar

Tuesday (6/30)

• ▸9:00 AM ET – FHFA House Price Index
• ▸9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI
• ▸10:00 AM ET – Consumer Confidence
• ▸10:00 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings

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Wednesday (7/1)

• ▸8:15 AM ET – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• ▸9:00 AM ET – Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks
• ▸9:45 AM ET – Final Manufacturing PMI
• ▸10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI
• ▸10:30 AM ET – Crude Oil Inventories

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Thursday (7/2)

Major Employment Day

• ▸

  8:30 AM ET

  • ▸Non-Farm Payrolls
  • ▸Average Hourly Earnings
  • ▸Unemployment Rate
  • ▸Initial Jobless Claims
• ▸

  10:00 AM ET – Factory Orders

• ▸

  10:30 AM ET – Natural Gas Storage

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Friday (7/3)

🇺🇸 U.S. Markets Closed – Independence Day Observed

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Earnings This Week

A relatively light earnings calendar.

Notable reports include:

• ▸AeroVironment
• ▸Concentrix
• ▸Nike
• ▸Constellation Brands
• ▸Progress Software
• ▸General Mills
• ▸FactSet
• ▸UniFirst
• ▸MSC Industrial
• ▸Franklin Covey

Compared to recent weeks, earnings should have a much smaller influence on overall index direction.

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Macro Narrative

The dominant macro themes remain:

• ▸Fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire.
• ▸Continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
• ▸Shipping and oil supply concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
• ▸Lower liquidity heading into the Independence Day holiday.
• ▸Employment data becoming the primary scheduled catalyst later this week.

While futures are attempting to push higher, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Expect volatility to increase quickly if the ceasefire deteriorates or new military developments emerge.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price: 18.28

Key Levels

Resistance

• ▸18.60 (Weekly/Daily Open)
• ▸19.29
• ▸20.20
• ▸Previous Week High: 20.72

Support

• ▸Previous Week Low: 17.72
• ▸NWOG High: 17.48
• ▸NWOG Mid: 16.94
• ▸NWOG Low: 16.40

If VIX continues below 17.72, that would support continued upside in equities.

A reclaim of 18.60 would favor risk-off conditions and likely pressure equity indices.

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MNQ

Current Price: 29,720

Upside Targets

• ▸

  Previous Day High

• ▸

  30,116.25 (1H FVG High)

• ▸

  30,264.25

• ▸

  Monthly Open

• ▸

  30,416.50

• ▸

  NWOG:

  • ▸High: 30,651.00
  • ▸Mid: 30,616.00
  • ▸Low: 30,580.75

Downside Targets

• ▸

  London Low: 29,578

• ▸

  Sydney Low: 29,363

• ▸

  Daily/Weekly Open: 29,280.50

• ▸

  Equal Lows: 29,160

• ▸

  4H Bullish Order Block:

  • ▸High: 29,023.25
  • ▸Mid: 28,747.50
  • ▸Low: 28,471.50
• ▸

  Daily Bullish FVG:

  • ▸High: 28,553.50
  • ▸Mid: 28,260.00
  • ▸Low: 27,966.50

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MES

Current Price: 7,464

Upside Targets

• ▸

  Equal Highs: 7,496.25

• ▸

  Previous Day High: 7,547.50

• ▸

  NWOG:

  • ▸Low: 7,543.75
  • ▸Mid: 7,550.50
  • ▸High: 7,557.00

Downside Targets

• ▸

  London Low: 7,436.75

• ▸

  Sydney Low: 7,420.50

• ▸

  Daily/Weekly Open: 7,398.00

• ▸

  Previous Week Low: 7,357.25

• ▸

  Daily Bullish FVG:

  • ▸High: 7,345.50
  • ▸Mid: 7,316.50
  • ▸Low: 7,287.25
• ▸

  Major Swing Low: 7,263.00

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Intermarket Outlook

Current relationships remain constructive for equities:

• ▸VIX is trading below its weekly opening level.
• ▸MES continues making higher lows overnight.
• ▸MNQ is pressing toward nearby resistance while maintaining bullish structure.

However, recent sessions have shown that VIX can reverse sharply after early weakness. Continue monitoring inverse correlation rather than assuming continued upside.

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Trading Focus

This week is about discipline over production.

Rules

• ▸✅ Maximum of 2 trades
• ▸✅ Reduced position size
• ▸✅ Wait for displacement and confirmation
• ▸✅ Higher-timeframe bias must align
• ▸✅ No chasing breakouts

Holiday weeks frequently produce slower conditions, false breakouts, and thinner liquidity. Patience should provide a significant edge.

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Weekly Bias

Slightly Bullish

The higher-timeframe rejection in VIX favors continued strength in equities, but both MES and MNQ are approaching meaningful overhead resistance.

Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX loses 17.72.
• ▸MES accepts above 7,496 and trades into the NWOG.
• ▸MNQ reclaims 30,116 and targets 30,264.

Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX reclaims 18.60.
• ▸MES loses 7,398 and rotates toward the Daily FVG.
• ▸MNQ loses 29,280 and targets the 4H bullish order block near 29,023.

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Trading Plan

This week is about capital preservation and process. Between the holiday-shortened schedule, your apartment move, and lighter institutional participation, there is no need to force trades. Your objective is to finish June by following your rules, emphasizing higher-timeframe structure, and waiting for price to reach your predefined areas of interest. If the market doesn't present an A+ opportunity, protecting capital is a successful outcome.