2026-06-30

MNQ1!

PMP – Tuesday, June 30, 2026

CNBC Headlines

Dow futures gain as benchmark wraps up best first half in 5 years, Nasdaq heads for best quarter since 2020: Live updates

Equity futures are modestly higher as investors look to close out both June and the first half of 2026. The Dow is on pace for its strongest first-half performance in five years, while the Nasdaq is tracking toward its best quarterly gain since 2020. Optimism surrounding easing geopolitical tensions and continued resilience in economic data has helped support the recent rally, although investors remain cautious ahead of today's economic releases and Thursday's employment report.

Mag 7 value shrinks by [amount redacted]trillion amid AI spending jitters — but investors are still backing chipmakers

While the Magnificent Seven have collectively lost roughly [amount redacted]trillion in market value from recent highs amid concerns over massive AI infrastructure spending, investors continue rotating into semiconductor companies that stand to benefit from long-term AI demand. The market appears to be rewarding the suppliers of AI rather than every company investing heavily in it, creating an important distinction within the technology sector.

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Daily Theme

Today marks the final trading day of both June and the first half of 2026.

Markets have been grinding higher despite a lack of clean institutional setups, making patience even more important. The objective remains unchanged:

• ▸Trade only A+ opportunities.
• ▸Continue reduced position sizing.
• ▸If no model presents itself, study rather than force trades.

The market has recently rewarded patience far more than aggression.

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Economic Calendar

9:00 AM ET

• ▸House Price Index (HPI)

9:45 AM ET

• ▸

  Chicago PMI

  • ▸Forecast: 60.0
  • ▸Previous: 62.7

10:00 AM ET (Primary Event)

• ▸

  Consumer Confidence

  • ▸Forecast: 94.2
  • ▸Previous: 93.1
• ▸

  JOLTS Job Openings

  • ▸Forecast: 7.28M
  • ▸Previous: 7.62M

4:30 PM ET

• ▸API Weekly Crude Oil Statistics

The 10:00 AM ET data will likely provide the biggest catalyst of the morning.

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Market Narrative

Yesterday's session continued the recent trend:

• ▸VIX briefly rallied after the open before selling off sharply.
• ▸MES and MNQ rallied aggressively despite offering very few textbook ICT-style entries.
• ▸Price largely advanced through grinding, overlapping candles rather than impulsive displacement.

This continues to reinforce the current market condition:

Trend is bullish, but execution opportunities remain limited.

Avoid chasing momentum simply because price continues drifting higher.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price: 17.49

Current Structure

Yesterday VIX swept above 19.29 before reversing sharply and closing near 17.65, supporting the equity rally.

This morning VIX remains inside last week's New Week Opening Gap.

Support

• ▸17.48 — NWOG High
• ▸17.05 — Swing Low
• ▸16.94 — NWOG Mid
• ▸16.49 — Swing Low
• ▸16.40 — NWOG Low
• ▸16.35 — Previous Day Low
• ▸16.02 — Swing Low
• ▸Monthly Open: 15.88

Resistance

• ▸

  Daily Open: 17.54

• ▸

  Daily High: 17.75

• ▸

  1H Bearish Fair Value Gap

  • ▸Low: 17.89
  • ▸Mid: 18.17
  • ▸High: 18.44
• ▸

  1H Bearish Order Block: 18.46

• ▸

  Weekly Open: 18.60

• ▸

  Weekly High: 19.45

• ▸

  Swing High: 20.20

VIX Bias

Below 17.54 continues to support higher equity prices.

Acceptance above 18.60 would begin favoring a broader equity pullback.

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MNQ

Current Price: 30,105

Upside Targets

• ▸

  Weekly High: 30,217.25

• ▸

  Previous Day High: 30,264.25

• ▸

  Monthly Open: 30,416.50

• ▸

  NWOG

  • ▸Low: 30,580.75
  • ▸Mid: 30,616.00
  • ▸High: 30,651.00
• ▸

  Previous Day High: 30,699.75

• ▸

  All-Time High

Downside Targets

• ▸London Swing Low: 30,019.50
• ▸Daily Low: 29,935.25
• ▸Major Intraday Order Block: 29,704.50

Below that, downside targets become significantly deeper, making the current structure favor continuation until proven otherwise.

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MES

Current Price: 7,500.75

Upside Targets

• ▸

  High of Day: 7,509.00

• ▸

  Previous Day High: 7,547.50

• ▸

  NWOG

  • ▸Low: 7,543.75
  • ▸Mid: 7,550.50
  • ▸High: 7,557.00
• ▸

  Monthly Open: 7,594.75

• ▸

  Previous Week High: 7,599.25

Downside Targets

• ▸Daily Open: 7,494.75
• ▸Daily Low: 7,481.75
• ▸1H Bearish Order Block: 7,464.00
• ▸Yesterday's Low: 7,409.50

There is relatively little higher-timeframe structure between 7,464 and yesterday's low, making 7,464 the first area where buyers could respond.

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Intermarket Outlook

Current relationships remain constructive:

• ▸VIX remains below its weekly opening level.
• ▸MES continues producing higher highs and higher lows.
• ▸MNQ is approaching previous highs with momentum.

The caution remains execution quality.

While the trend has been bullish, recent sessions have produced very few clean displacement-and-retracement entries. Most gains have come through slow, grinding advances rather than impulsive institutional moves.

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Trading Focus

Today's emphasis remains discipline over participation.

Rules

• ▸✅ Continue reduced risk.
• ▸✅ Only trade A+ setups.
• ▸✅ Higher-timeframe narrative must align.
• ▸✅ Wait for displacement and confirmation.
• ▸✅ No chasing slow grind moves.

If the market continues to rally without presenting your model, sitting on your hands is still the correct decision.

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Daily Bias

Moderately Bullish

The broader trend remains constructive while VIX trades beneath its weekly opening price.

Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX remains below 17.54.
• ▸MNQ breaks 30,217 and targets 30,264, followed by the Monthly Open.
• ▸MES extends above 7,509 toward the June 22 New Week Opening Gap around 7,544–7,557.

Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX reclaims 18.60.
• ▸MNQ loses 30,019 and begins filling into the stacked fair value gaps below.
• ▸MES loses 7,464, opening the door toward yesterday's low near 7,409.

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Trading Plan

This market continues to reward patience more than precision entries. Although the broader bias remains bullish, the recent advance has occurred with minimal displacement and very few textbook ICT setups. Continue honoring your reduced-risk plan as you close out both the month and the quarter. Your objective is not to participate in every move, but to capitalize only when price aligns with your model. If that opportunity never develops today, studying the market and preserving capital is a successful trading day.