2026-07-06

MES1!

PMP – Monday, July 6, 2026

CNBC Headlines

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rise after a strong week on Wall Street, led by chip stocks: Live updates

U.S. equity futures are modestly higher following last week's strong rally, with semiconductor stocks continuing to lead the market higher. Investors return from the shortened holiday week focused on economic data, corporate earnings season approaching, and continued geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

Overnight Headlines

• ▸Israeli forces reportedly triggered explosions in southern Lebanon overnight, according to Lebanese state media.
• ▸The incident raises additional concerns about the stability of the recent Israel-Iran ceasefire and reminds traders that geopolitical headline risk remains elevated.

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Daily Theme

Markets return from the Independence Day holiday with very little overnight movement.

• ▸ES and NQ opened with small upside gaps.
• ▸VIX opened slightly lower.
• ▸Overnight trading has been extremely quiet with no clear institutional direction.

Price continues to trade near major highs while showing increasing indecision. Until the market clearly commits in one direction, patience remains the edge.

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Economic Calendar

9:45 AM ET

• ▸

  Final Services PMI

  • ▸Forecast: 51.4
  • ▸Previous: 51.3

10:00 AM ET ⭐

ISM Services PMI (Red Folder)

• ▸Forecast: 54.2
• ▸Previous: 54.5

11:00 AM ET

• ▸FOMC Member Waller Speaks

There are no additional high-impact releases after the ISM report.

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Market Narrative

The market enters the week following a shortened holiday session with participation still relatively light.

While indices remain near their highs, recent price action has consisted primarily of:

• ▸overlapping candles,
• ▸large upper and lower wicks,
• ▸very little clean displacement,
• ▸constant back-and-forth price discovery.

Institutional direction remains difficult to identify.

This continues to favor waiting for confirmation rather than anticipating moves.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price: 16.43

Current Structure

• ▸Daily & Weekly Open: 16.40
• ▸Daily Low: 16.24
• ▸Daily High: 16.44

VIX remains extremely compressed after breaking below last week's lows.

Upside Resistance

• ▸Monthly Open: 17.11
• ▸Equal Highs: 17.30
• ▸Previous Day Highs: 17.75
• ▸1H Bearish Order Block: 18.17
• ▸Previous Week High: 19.45

Downside Targets

• ▸Previous Week Low: 15.79
• ▸Additional Weekly Low: 15.18
• ▸Yearly Open: 14.85
• ▸Expected reaction zone: 14.31
• ▸Previous Year Low: 13.38

VIX Bias

As long as VIX remains below the Monthly Open at 17.11, volatility continues to favor higher equity prices.

Acceptance above 17.30–18.17 would begin shifting the short-term narrative back toward risk-off.

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MNQ

Current Price: ~29,860

Markets continue ranging around the Weekly and Daily Opening Prices.

Upside Targets

• ▸Daily Open / Weekly Open: 29,936.75
• ▸Daily High: 30,010.00
• ▸Previous Day High: 30,319.75
• ▸Monthly Open: 30,502.50

New Week Opening Gap (June 19)

• ▸Low: 30,580.75
• ▸Mid: 30,616.00
• ▸High: 30,651.00

Additional targets:

• ▸Previous Day High: 30,699.75

Downside Targets

• ▸

  Daily Low: 29,683.25

• ▸

  1H Swing Low: 29,522.50

• ▸

  Previous Day Low: 29,328.50

• ▸

  Previous Week Lows:

  • ▸29,274.00
  • ▸29,160.00

Below those levels:

4H Bullish Order Block

• ▸High: 29,023.25
• ▸Mid: 28,747.50
• ▸Low: 28,471.50

Primary expectation is for buyers to defend somewhere between the previous week's lows and the 4H Bullish Order Block if price experiences a deeper retracement.

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MES

Current Price: ~7,553

Price remains inside a very tight consolidation near recent highs.

Upside Targets

• ▸Daily Open / Weekly Open: 7,562.75
• ▸Daily High: 7,574.00
• ▸Previous Week High: 7,594.00
• ▸Previous Week High: 7,599.25
• ▸Previous Day High: 7,612.50
• ▸Previous Day High: 7,636.50
• ▸All-Time High: 7,648.75

Longer-term extension:

• ▸7,700 area

Downside Targets

• ▸Daily Low: 7,538.00
• ▸Bullish Order Block: 7,501.00

Primary demand zone

• ▸

  Previous Day Low: 7,479.75

• ▸

  Daily Bullish FVG

  • ▸High: 7,481.75
  • ▸Mid: 7,470.50
  • ▸Low: 7,459.25
• ▸

  1H Bullish Order Block: 7,464.00

Final downside support:

• ▸Swing Low: 7,409.00

The strongest confluence remains around the overlap between the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap and the 1H Bullish Order Block.

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Higher Time Frame Perspective

MES

Monthly:

• ▸Previous month's candle rejected heavily from its highs.
• ▸Current month continues trading inside that upper wick.

Weekly:

• ▸Coming off a strong bullish weekly candle.
• ▸Trend remains constructive but momentum has slowed.

MNQ

Monthly:

• ▸Also trading inside last month's upper wick.
• ▸Price has retraced roughly halfway back into that wick.

Weekly:

• ▸Bullish candle last week, but with noticeably more upper wick rejection than ES.
• ▸Suggests technology remains slightly weaker relative to ES.

Overall:

• ▸ES continues showing relative strength.
• ▸NQ is participating but showing more hesitation.

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Trading Focus

This continues to be an environment that rewards discipline.

Recent sessions have featured:

• ▸grinding trends,
• ▸limited displacement,
• ▸few A+ ICT entries,
• ▸frequent whipsaws around highs.

Today's plan:

• ▸Wait for higher-timeframe alignment.
• ▸Reduce position size if trading.
• ▸Allow wider stops only when supported by structure.
• ▸Pass on trades that don't fully meet your model.

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Daily Bias

Neutral to Moderately Bullish

The higher-timeframe trend still favors buyers, but markets are struggling to establish clear direction after the holiday.

Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX remains below 17.11.
• ▸MNQ reclaims 30,010 and targets 30,319, then the Monthly Open.
• ▸MES clears 7,574 and begins attacking 7,594–7,612, with the All-Time High at 7,648.75 remaining the major objective.

Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX reclaims 17.30 and especially 18.17.
• ▸MNQ loses 29,683 and begins trading toward the previous week's lows.
• ▸MES loses 7,538, opening the door into the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap near 7,480–7,460.

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Trading Plan

Today is likely another session where patience will outperform activity. The market remains near record highs, but price action continues to lack clean institutional displacement. Both ES and NQ are grinding higher inside broad ranges while printing significant wicks in both directions, suggesting ongoing indecision rather than conviction.

The higher-timeframe trend remains constructive, but until price clearly commits after the 10:00 AM ISM Services PMI release, there is little reason to force trades. Focus on preserving capital, waiting for your A+ model, and letting the market prove its intention before participating.