2026-07-07

MES1!

PMP – Tuesday, July 7, 2026

CNBC Headlines

Nasdaq futures fall as chip stocks struggle: Live updates

U.S. equity futures are modestly lower Tuesday morning as semiconductor stocks lead early weakness following last week's strong rally. Despite the pullback, markets remain near all-time highs, with traders continuing to debate whether this is simply consolidation before another leg higher or the beginning of a broader correction.

Overnight Headlines

• ▸Reports surfaced of another possible tanker strike near the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.K. sources, though confirmation remains limited.
• ▸Markets continue monitoring geopolitical developments surrounding Israel, Iran, and the broader Middle East.
• ▸Earnings remain very light this week, with Delta Air Lines expected to be one of the week's most closely watched reports.

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Daily Theme

Monday produced another highly rotational session.

• ▸ES swept multiple previous week highs before rejecting.
• ▸NQ failed after taking liquidity above recent highs.
• ▸VIX continued making fresh lows before bouncing slightly overnight.

Overall, price continues to respect higher-timeframe bullish structure while refusing to trend cleanly intraday. Expect another session where patience and confirmation are rewarded over anticipation.

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Economic Calendar

7:00 AM ET

• ▸FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

8:15 AM ET

• ▸

  ADP Weekly Employment Change (Yellow Folder)

  • ▸Previous: 30.8K

8:30 AM ET

• ▸

  Trade Balance (Yellow Folder)

  • ▸Forecast: -78.3B
  • ▸Previous: -55.9B

Tentative

• ▸

  RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism

  • ▸Forecast: 45.0
  • ▸Previous: 42.5

4:30 PM ET

• ▸API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

Although today's releases are labeled lower impact, ADP and Trade Balance have the potential to generate volatility during the New York open.

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Market Narrative

Markets remain in nearly the same environment as yesterday.

Institutional participation continues to appear light while price rotates between liquidity pools without strong displacement.

Monday successfully swept multiple upside liquidity levels before rejecting overnight, leaving markets back inside their recent trading ranges.

Nothing has materially changed from a higher-timeframe perspective.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price: ~15.92

Current Structure

Yesterday:

• ▸Previous Week Low (15.79) was swept.
• ▸Weekly High established: 16.50
• ▸Weekly Low established: 15.56

Overnight:

• ▸VIX gapped higher after establishing the weekly low.

Current Structure:

• ▸Current Price: 15.92
• ▸Daily Open: 15.87
• ▸Weak Swing Low: 15.80
• ▸Weak Swing High: 16.03

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Upside Targets

Market Opening Gap

• ▸Low: 16.25
• ▸Mid: 16.37
• ▸High: 16.49

Additional targets

• ▸Weekly Open: 16.40
• ▸Weekly High: 16.50
• ▸Monthly Open: 17.11
• ▸Swing Highs: 17.21–17.30
• ▸Previous Day High: 17.75

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Downside Targets

• ▸Weekly Low: 15.56
• ▸Previous Week Low: 15.18
• ▸Yearly Open: 14.85
• ▸Expected reaction area: 14.32

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VIX Bias

The broader trend remains bearish for volatility.

Unless VIX can reclaim the Market Opening Gap and Weekly Open, lower volatility continues to support higher equity prices.

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MNQ

Current Price: ~29,640

Monday's overnight session finally broke below yesterday's low before finding support inside a 1H Bullish Order Block.

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Upside Targets

• ▸Premarket Swing High: 29,744.00
• ▸Weekly Open: 29,936.75
• ▸Daily Open: 29,960.00
• ▸Previous Day High: 30,094.00
• ▸Previous Day High: 30,319.75
• ▸Monthly Open: 30,502.50

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Downside Targets

• ▸Daily Low: 29,557.50
• ▸1H Bullish Order Block (current support)

Below that:

• ▸Previous Day Low: 29,328.50
• ▸Previous Week Low: 29,274.00
• ▸Previous Week Low: 29,160.00

Then into the 4H Bullish Order Block

• ▸High: 29,023.25
• ▸Mid: 28,747.50
• ▸Low: 28,471.50

Additional Confluence

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 28,553.50
• ▸Mid: 28,260.00
• ▸Low: 27,966.50

Additional liquidity

• ▸Previous Week Low: 28,227.25
• ▸Previous Day Low: 28,264.25

The current bounce is occurring directly from the 1H Bullish Order Block, making today's reaction there particularly important.

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MES

Current Price: ~7,573

Monday successfully swept several previous week highs before reversing overnight.

Price is now sitting directly on the Weekly Opening Price.

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Upside Targets

• ▸Premarket High: 7,585.00
• ▸Daily Open: 7,597.50
• ▸Weekly High: 7,602.25
• ▸Previous Day High: 7,612.50
• ▸Previous Day High: 7,636.50
• ▸All-Time High: 7,648.75

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Downside Targets

• ▸Daily Low: 7,563.00
• ▸Weekly Open: 7,562.75
• ▸Yesterday's Swing Low: 7,552.00
• ▸Monthly Open: 7,543.50
• ▸Weekly Low: 7,538.00

1H Inverted Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 7,520.50
• ▸Mid: 7,511.75
• ▸Low: 7,503.00

Major Support

• ▸Previous Day Low: 7,479.75

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 7,481.75
• ▸Mid: 7,470.50
• ▸Low: 7,459.25

Additional Confluence

• ▸1H Bullish Order Block: 7,460.00

This remains the strongest higher-timeframe demand zone if sellers gain control.

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Higher Time Frame Perspective

MES

Monthly:

• ▸Still trading inside the upper wick of last month's candle.
• ▸Overall monthly structure remains bullish.

Weekly:

• ▸Bullish trend remains intact.
• ▸Momentum has slowed considerably over the past several sessions.

MNQ

Monthly:

• ▸Trading inside last month's upper wick.
• ▸Technology continues showing slightly weaker relative strength than ES.

Weekly:

• ▸Bullish structure remains intact.
• ▸Continued hesitation near major resistance.

Overall, neither market has invalidated its higher-timeframe bullish trend, but neither has shown convincing institutional buying at these highs.

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Trading Focus

This continues to be a market that rewards patience.

Yesterday was an excellent example of disciplined execution:

• ▸Wait for liquidity.
• ▸Wait for confirmation.
• ▸Let price come into your levels.
• ▸Don't chase moves.

Today's objective should be exactly the same.

With no major economic catalyst and light participation expected, avoid forcing trades simply because price is moving.

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Daily Bias

Neutral with a Slight Bullish Higher-Timeframe Bias

The overnight selloff appears more corrective than impulsive, particularly with both ES and NQ reacting from higher-timeframe support while VIX remains historically depressed.

Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX fails to reclaim 16.25–16.49.
• ▸MNQ holds the 1H Bullish Order Block and reclaims 29,744, targeting 29,936 and 30,094.
• ▸MES defends the Weekly Open and recovers 7,585, opening the path back toward 7,602, 7,612, and eventually the All-Time High (7,648.75).

Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX reclaims the Market Opening Gap and Weekly Open.
• ▸MNQ loses the 1H Bullish Order Block and begins targeting 29,328, 29,274, and 29,160.
• ▸MES loses the Weekly Open and Weekly Low, exposing the 1H Inverted Fair Value Gap (7,520–7,503) before the larger Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap.

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Trading Plan

This is another session where patience should outperform activity. Monday demonstrated that the market is still willing to sweep liquidity in both directions before committing, and overnight price action has done little to change that narrative. Higher-timeframe structure remains constructive, but intraday conditions continue to be choppy with limited displacement.

The focus today is simple: protect capital, wait for price to reach meaningful higher-timeframe levels, and only engage when your A+ model presents itself. Yesterday's disciplined execution is the blueprint to repeat today.