2026-07-22

MES1!

PMP – Wednesday, July 22, 2026

This playbook builds directly on Tuesday’s auction.

Yesterday, MES and MNQ pushed into their decision areas but failed to establish sustained acceptance above the upper portion of their ranges. Overnight, both indices rotated lower while VIX gapped higher and began reclaiming Tuesday’s opening gap.

That gives today a more defensive opening posture than yesterday.

The central question is:

Is the overnight decline simply a retracement into nearby demand before earnings, or is the market beginning another risk-off expansion as oil and geopolitical pressure rise?

Unlike Tuesday, the three markets are initially aligned:

• ▸VIX is higher.
• ▸MES is lower.
• ▸MNQ is lower.

However, all three are approaching important decision areas. The opening auction must confirm whether that alignment has institutional sponsorship or is merely an overnight repricing move.

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CNBC Headlines

Stock futures slip as oil prices jump, traders gear up for more earnings

Equity futures are softer as investors balance rising energy prices against another major wave of corporate earnings.

The market’s attention is shifting toward technology after the closing bell, with Tesla, Alphabet, IBM and ServiceNow among the companies scheduled to report. That creates the possibility of restrained positioning during the regular session as institutions wait for confirmation from some of the market’s most influential names.

Brent oil price hovers near [amount redacted]as Rubio says U.S. will “continue to protect shipping” in Hormuz

Energy remains the primary macro pressure point.

Oil prices are elevated as the Strait of Hormuz conflict continues to threaten commercial shipping and global supply routes. Recent reporting indicates that oil has already been trading with a meaningful geopolitical premium while negotiations remain fragile. (Reuters)

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Overnight Headlines

• ▸Equity futures are trading modestly lower.
• ▸Oil prices remain elevated as the Hormuz shipping standoff continues.
• ▸VIX opened with a gap higher and is holding above Tuesday’s close.
• ▸Technology earnings become the dominant scheduled catalyst after the closing bell.
• ▸Markets continue balancing diplomatic headlines against the possibility of further military escalation.
• ▸The Bank of Japan remains another background macro consideration after reports that policymakers may be open to accelerating the pace of future rate increases.

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Economic Calendar

10:30 AM ET

🟡 Crude Oil Inventories

• ▸Forecast: –2.0 million
• ▸Previous: –1.7 million

Under ordinary conditions, this would be a secondary event for equity futures.

Today, it carries greater significance because oil is already elevated and directly connected to the geopolitical narrative. A bullish inventory surprise could reinforce inflation concerns and pressure equities, while a larger-than-expected draw could produce additional volatility across crude, VIX and the indices.

3:00 PM ET

🟠 President Trump Speaks

This occurs after the primary morning trading window but could affect late-session positioning ahead of tonight’s technology earnings.

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Earnings Calendar

Before the Open

• ▸AT&T
• ▸GE Vernova
• ▸Philip Morris
• ▸Travel + Leisure
• ▸Wabtec
• ▸TE Connectivity
• ▸PulteGroup
• ▸Moody’s

After the Close

• ▸Tesla
• ▸Alphabet
• ▸ServiceNow
• ▸IBM
• ▸Texas Instruments
• ▸CSX
• ▸Kinder Morgan

This is the week’s most consequential earnings session so far.

Tesla and Alphabet can materially affect MNQ, while IBM, Texas Instruments and ServiceNow may influence broader technology and semiconductor sentiment.

That increases the probability that institutions limit directional exposure during the regular session unless the geopolitical or oil narrative creates a stronger immediate catalyst.

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Weekly Context

Monday produced a mostly rotational auction.

Tuesday initially attempted to extend higher, but neither MES nor MNQ established meaningful acceptance above their upper decision blocks. Both markets subsequently rolled over during the overnight session.

At the same time, VIX defended the lower portion of its range and opened Wednesday with a gap higher.

The immediate structure therefore favors sellers, but the move is approaching nearby liquidity and higher-timeframe demand.

Today’s auction should determine whether:

1. ▸Tuesday’s highs represented distribution, opening the door to lower weekly targets, or
2. ▸The overnight decline is only a retracement, allowing equities to defend support and rotate back toward Tuesday’s highs.

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VIX Analysis

Current Price

~17.66

VIX closed Tuesday near 17.06 and opened Wednesday at approximately 17.42, creating a bullish opening gap:

• ▸High: 17.42
• ▸Midpoint: 17.24
• ▸Low: 17.06

Price has already expanded above the opening price and taken the initial overnight high, reaching approximately 17.75.

VIX is now trading between Wednesday’s opening gap and the lower portion of Tuesday’s larger opening gap.

This makes 17.99–18.32 the primary upside decision zone.

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Bullish VIX Scenario

Bearish Equities

VIX must maintain acceptance above:

• ▸Daily Open: 17.42
• ▸Current Daily High: 17.75
• ▸Previous Day High: 17.99
• ▸Tuesday Opening Gap Midpoint: 18.07

Above that, upside targets become:

• ▸Upper Quadrant: 18.32
• ▸Opening Gap High: 18.65
• ▸Swing High: 18.69

The first meaningful bullish objective is the 18.07–18.32 area.

That zone represents both the midpoint and upper quadrant of Tuesday’s gap and should determine whether volatility is merely filling inefficiency or beginning another risk-off expansion.

Acceptance above 18.32 strengthens the case for:

• ▸18.65
• ▸18.69
• ▸Weekly Open near 18.90

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Bearish VIX Scenario

Bullish Equities

For volatility to weaken, price must reject the current expansion and trade back below:

• ▸Daily Open: 17.42
• ▸Daily Low: 17.30
• ▸Gap Midpoint: 17.24
• ▸Gap Low: 17.06
• ▸Monthly Open: 17.11

Below that, downside targets become:

• ▸Weekly Low: 16.86
• ▸Prior NDOG Low: 16.73
• ▸NWOG High: 16.32

The cleanest bearish VIX confirmation would be:

1. ▸Rejection from 17.99–18.32
2. ▸Bearish change in state of delivery
3. ▸Acceptance below 17.42
4. ▸Continuation through 17.24–17.06

That would support a recovery in MES and MNQ.

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MNQ Analysis

Current Price

~29,046

MNQ sold off during the overnight session after Tuesday failed to sustain acceptance above the upper portion of its range.

Price is now testing Tuesday’s lower liquidity and the boundary of a developing decision block.

The most important immediate question is whether MNQ can hold the 29,016–28,957 area.

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Bullish Structure

For MNQ to reverse the overnight decline, price must first defend:

• ▸Previous Intraday Low: 29,016.75
• ▸Current Daily Low: ~29,017.25
• ▸Decision Block Open: 28,957.00

Bullish confirmation requires displacement back above:

• ▸Potential Decision Block: 29,154.25
• ▸Swing High: 29,173.50
• ▸Daily Open: 29,309.00
• ▸Weekly High: 29,363.50

Above the weekly high, the next decision area includes:

• ▸Bearish Order Block beginning near 29,346.75
• ▸Swing High: 29,532.00
• ▸Additional Liquidity: 29,644.75
• ▸Previous Day High: 29,796.50

The bullish model is not confirmed simply because price bounces from the current low.

MNQ needs to reclaim 29,154–29,173, then demonstrate acceptance above the daily open. Until that occurs, any bounce remains a retracement within a bearish overnight delivery.

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Bearish Structure

Bearish continuation requires:

• ▸Displacement below 29,016.75
• ▸Acceptance below 28,957.00
• ▸Failure to reclaim the decision block

Downside targets then become:

• ▸Weekly Open: 28,747.50
• ▸Weekly Low: 28,700.00
• ▸Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap High: 28,553.50
• ▸Prior Week Low: 28,406.75

Below there:

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 28,553.50
• ▸Midpoint: 28,260.00
• ▸Low: 27,966.50

The first complete bearish objective is 28,747–28,700.

The more significant higher-timeframe draw is the daily bullish FVG at 28,553.50.

That would be a substantial intraday move, so it should only be expected if VIX accepts above 18.07–18.32 and oil or geopolitical headlines provide continued sponsorship.

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MES Analysis

Current Price

~7,516

MES also sold off overnight as VIX expanded higher.

Price is testing the same general support structure it defended during the previous sessions, including the one-hour bullish fair value gap and nearby short-term liquidity.

The immediate decision area is approximately 7,504–7,530.

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Bullish Structure

MES must first defend:

• ▸

  Current Daily Low: ~7,511.50

• ▸

  Swing Low: 7,504.50

• ▸

  1H Bullish Fair Value Gap

  • ▸High: 7,514.50
  • ▸Midpoint: 7,505.00
  • ▸Low: 7,495.50

Bullish confirmation requires a reclaim of:

• ▸Decision Block Open: ~7,530.00
• ▸Swing High: 7,533.25
• ▸Monthly Open: 7,543.50
• ▸Daily Open: ~7,545.00
• ▸Daily High: ~7,547.00
• ▸Weekly High: 7,554.25

Above the weekly high, the next objectives are:

• ▸7,563–7,570
• ▸Previous Day High near 7,574
• ▸1H Bearish Order Block above 7,580

The most important bullish confirmation is not merely a reaction from 7,504–7,514.

MES must reclaim 7,530, then accept above the Monthly and Daily Opens. Without that, the bounce remains vulnerable to another lower high.

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Bearish Structure

Bearish continuation requires:

• ▸Acceptance below the current daily low
• ▸Displacement through 7,504.50
• ▸Failure to reclaim the 1H bullish FVG

Downside targets then become:

• ▸Weekly Open: 7,484.50
• ▸Daily Bullish FVG High: 7,481.75
• ▸Weekly Low: 7,473.25
• ▸Previous Week Low: 7,473.00

Below that:

Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap

• ▸High: 7,481.75
• ▸Midpoint: 7,470.50
• ▸Low: 7,459.25

The first meaningful bearish draw is the 7,484.50–7,481.75 area.

Because the weekly and previous-week lows near 7,473 are effectively equal liquidity, price may extend through them if sellers maintain control.

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Narrative Alignment

Today’s structure begins with clearer intermarket alignment than Tuesday:

• ▸VIX has gapped and expanded higher.
• ▸MNQ has traded lower into Tuesday’s lows.
• ▸MES has traded lower into its one-hour demand.
• ▸Oil remains elevated as geopolitical tensions continue affecting shipping expectations.

That initially supports a bearish equity narrative.

However, the indices are already reaching support while VIX is approaching the first significant resistance zone at 17.99–18.32.

Therefore, today is not a simple “short the market” session.

The actual decision is:

Does VIX accept above Tuesday’s gap midpoint while MES and MNQ displace through support, or does VIX reject that area as equities defend higher-timeframe demand?

This creates two coherent models.

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Bullish Equity Narrative

A bullish reversal becomes valid when:

• ▸VIX rejects 17.99–18.32
• ▸VIX trades back below 17.42
• ▸MNQ defends 29,016–28,957
• ▸MNQ reclaims 29,154–29,173
• ▸MES defends 7,504–7,514
• ▸MES reclaims 7,530
• ▸Both indices begin accepting above their Daily Opens

Under this model, the overnight selloff represents a liquidity run into demand before an earnings-related recovery.

Upside objectives become:

MNQ

• ▸29,173.50
• ▸29,309.00
• ▸29,363.50
• ▸29,532.00

MES

• ▸7,533.25
• ▸7,543.50
• ▸7,554.25
• ▸7,563–7,570

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Bearish Equity Narrative

Bearish continuation becomes valid when:

• ▸VIX holds above 17.42
• ▸VIX accepts above 17.99–18.07
• ▸MNQ displaces below 29,016.75
• ▸MNQ accepts below 28,957.00
• ▸MES loses 7,504.50
• ▸MES fails to reclaim its 1H bullish FVG

Under this model, Tuesday’s upper-range failure represented distribution and the overnight decline begins a larger weekly expansion.

Downside objectives become:

MNQ

• ▸28,747.50
• ▸28,700.00
• ▸28,553.50
• ▸28,406.75

MES

• ▸7,484.50
• ▸7,481.75
• ▸7,473.25
• ▸7,470.50
• ▸7,459.25

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Trading Focus

Today’s edge comes from allowing the first support test to resolve.

Do not assume that the overnight direction must continue simply because VIX is higher and equities are lower.

Wait to determine whether:

• ▸VIX can accept above 18.07
• ▸MNQ can displace below 29,016
• ▸MES can displace below 7,504

If those three conditions align, the bearish model has sponsorship.

If VIX rejects its upper decision zone while MES and MNQ reclaim their lower-timeframe decision blocks, the market is signaling that the overnight move was a liquidity delivery rather than the beginning of sustained expansion.

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Daily Bias

Neutral to Moderately Bearish

The overnight alignment favors sellers, but both indices are entering demand before the opening bell.

That prevents a fully bearish bias until price demonstrates acceptance below support.

The market is bearish below the decision blocks, not simply because it traded lower overnight.

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Bullish Confirmation

• ▸VIX rejects 17.99–18.32 and loses 17.42
• ▸MES holds the 1H bullish FVG and reclaims 7,530
• ▸MNQ holds 29,016–28,957 and reclaims 29,173
• ▸Both indices recover their Daily Opens

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Bearish Confirmation

• ▸VIX accepts above 18.07, opening the path toward 18.32–18.69
• ▸MES accepts below 7,504.50
• ▸MNQ accepts below 29,016.75 and 28,957
• ▸Oil continues strengthening or geopolitical headlines reinforce risk-off positioning

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Trader’s Objective

• ▸Do not chase the completed overnight move.
• ▸Require displacement and acceptance below support before shorting.
• ▸Require a confirmed change in state of delivery before attempting a reversal.
• ▸Use VIX 17.99–18.32 as the primary volatility decision zone.
• ▸Treat crude inventories as a potentially stronger-than-normal catalyst.
• ▸Remain aware that major technology earnings after the close may reduce intraday institutional commitment.
• ▸Trade the confirmed auction—not the headline alone.

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Overall Feedback

This PMP shows another improvement in how you are reading the auction.

The strongest part is that you are no longer treating every high or low as an independent level. You are identifying the prices where a change in state of delivery should occur:

• ▸VIX around 17.99–18.32
• ▸MNQ around 29,016–28,957
• ▸MES around 7,504–7,530

That is the real framework for today.

Your bearish expectation is justified because the markets entered the morning aligned. But your chart work also correctly recognizes that price is already entering areas where a reversal could begin.

The most important sentence for today is:

The overnight move establishes the opening pressure, but acceptance below demand determines whether that pressure becomes a tradable bearish expansion.

That distinction should keep you from shorting directly into support while still allowing you to participate if the market confirms continuation.