2026-09-14

DXY

Pre-Market Playbook — Monday, September 14, 2026

Trader Condition / Risk Override

Before the charts, today has an additional variable that matters as much as anything on the economic calendar:

I am tired, mentally drained, physically drained, and operating on poor sleep.

That changes the execution plan.

Today is not a day to prove anything to the market. If I trade at all:

• ▸Micros only
• ▸A+ confirmation only
• ▸No chasing an overnight move
• ▸No forcing a setup because I am already at the screens
• ▸If processing speed, patience, or emotional control feels off, observation becomes the trade

The PMP still matters even if no position is taken. The goal can simply be to identify whether the model plays out correctly and document it.

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Market Context

Monday opens with a broadly risk-off tone.

The principal market headline is:

Stock futures fall as investors weigh calls for AI slowdown, oil gains

The second major headline is centered specifically around the technology sector:

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman discusses why the AI industry may need to slow development, warning, “We could lose control.”

That matters particularly for MNQ, where AI-related mega-cap positioning has been one of the dominant themes. At the same time, oil remains firm and geopolitical risk surrounding Iran remains unresolved.

The latest Iran-related headline is:

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority says vessels could face future restrictions on passage, including fines, detention or confiscation.

So the market is dealing with two different risk channels:

Technology / AI uncertainty and Oil / geopolitical shipping risk

Neither guarantees downside continuation, but both are capable of supporting volatility if sellers remain in control.

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Weekly Macro Context

This week is relatively light until Wednesday, when the market gets both retail-sales data and the Federal Reserve.

Tuesday

ADP Weekly Employment Change Previous: 12.0K

Empire State Manufacturing Index

• ▸Forecast: 14.1
• ▸Previous: 20.6

Wednesday — Major Event Day

Core Retail Sales m/m

• ▸Forecast: 0.5%
• ▸Previous: -0.3%

Retail Sales m/m

• ▸Forecast: 0.8%
• ▸Previous: -0.6%

Then the major event:

🔴 2:00 PM ET — Federal Reserve

Federal Funds Rate

• ▸Forecast: 4.00%
• ▸Previous: 3.75%

FOMC Economic Projections

FOMC Statement

🔴 2:30 PM ET

FOMC Press Conference

According to the FedWatch screenshot supplied this morning, markets are currently pricing:

86.5% — 25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%

13.5% — No change at 3.50%–3.75%

That is a major shift from one month ago, when the same screenshot shows only 33.1% probability for the higher target range.

So even though today itself is quiet, the market is already trading into a week dominated by Fed repricing.

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Earnings

There are no major index-moving earnings releases this week.

The Earnings Whispers calendar is extremely light compared with recent weeks.

That means the market should be more sensitive to:

Fed expectations rates / yields AI headlines oil Iran / shipping headlines

rather than earnings-specific catalysts.

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U.S. Dollar — Macro Confirmation

Current: ~99.50

DXY experienced a strong overnight expansion and is now backing away from its highs.

Current References

Daily High: 99.602 Previous Day High: ~99.612 Monthly Open: 99.421 Lower-TF CISD area: ~99.453 Deeper state-change area: ~99.320 Nearby premarket low reference: ~99.306 Daily / Weekly Open: ~99.103 Daily Low: 99.073

The overnight move already delivered substantial dollar strength, so location matters.

Dollar Continuation Higher

The first requirement is holding above:

99.421 — Monthly Open

Then:

99.602 Daily High → ~99.612 PDH

Acceptance above that area would reinforce continued dollar strength.

That would generally be a headwind for risk assets, particularly if VIX is also moving higher.

Dollar Retracement

If the overnight expansion begins unwinding:

99.453 CISD area → 99.320 state-change area → 99.306 nearby low

Below that:

99.103 Daily / Weekly Open → 99.073 Daily Low

I am primarily using DXY for confirmation today rather than as an independent directional trade.

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Gold — Macro Confirmation

Current: ~4,336

Gold presents nearly the inverse overnight picture.

Gold gapped lower, rallied early, and then sold sharply toward the lows.

Current Structure

Daily Low: 4,317.6

Yearly Open: ~4,338.1

Daily / Weekly Open / NWOG Low: 4,374.5

NWOG Midpoint: 4,382.2

NWOG High: 4,389.8

Daily High: 4,396.8

There is also a potential premarket swing-high area around:

~4,359.6

That could effectively use Friday's body as an order-block reference.

Gold Recovery Scenario

First:

~4,359.6

Then:

4,374.5 — Daily / Weekly Open / NWOG Low

Then:

4,382.2 → 4,389.8 → 4,396.8

Gold Continuation Lower

The immediate battle is around:

4,338.1 — Yearly Open

Failure there places:

4,317.6 — Daily Low

at risk again.

Gold is already heavily extended lower, so like DXY, I would rather use it as intermarket context than chase the overnight move.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current: ~17.46

VIX produced a significant gap higher and then sold aggressively from its overnight high.

Current Structure

Daily / Weekly Open / NWOG High: 17.50

Daily High: 18.17

That creates equal-high liquidity with last week's high around the same area.

New Week Opening Gap

17.50 — High

17.09 — 75%

16.67 — Midpoint

16.26 — 25%

15.84 — Low

The Quarterly Open at 17.11 sits almost directly beside the 75% level.

That makes:

17.09–17.11

a major decision zone.

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VIX Bearish / Equity Bullish Scenario

VIX has already begun its initial selloff.

The first major target is:

17.11 Quarterly Open / 17.09 NWOG 75%

If that fails:

16.67 — NWOG Midpoint

Then:

16.26 — NWOG 25%

And potentially:

15.84 — NWOG Low

The most important initial question is whether the market treats 17.09–17.11 as support.

If not, equities would have considerably more room to recover.

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VIX Bullish / Equity Bearish Scenario

For renewed volatility expansion, VIX must first reclaim:

17.50 — Daily / Weekly Open / NWOG High

Then:

18.02

Then:

18.17 — Daily / Equal High

Above there:

18.43 — Previous Week High

Then:

18.70 — Previous Day High

A move through 18.17 would be particularly important because that would clear the equal-high liquidity rather than simply reacting around it.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current: ~28,950

MNQ is already significantly lower from Friday's levels.

This is another market where the overnight move is already mature, so chasing weakness from current location is unattractive.

The larger daily structure includes a bullish FVG below price:

Daily Bullish FVG

28,930.00 — High

28,828.00 — Midpoint

28,725.75 — Low

Price is now trading right around the upper portion of that imbalance.

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MNQ Bullish / Retracement Scenario

The immediate premarket swing high is:

28,977.25

Then we have:

~29,017.50 — 1H Order Block / State-Change Area

Then an important opening-price cluster around:

~29,070–29,083

The chart shows the current NWOG Low at 29,070.25, with nearby swing liquidity around 29,083.

Above that:

29,135.50 — Daily High

Then the New Week Opening Gap:

29,231.50 — Midpoint

29,312.25 — 75%

29,392.75 — High

So the primary bullish ladder is:

28,977.25 → 29,017.50 → 29,070.25 / 29,083 → 29,135.50 → 29,231.50 → 29,312.25 → 29,392.75

A move back toward the NWOG midpoint would represent a meaningful retracement of the overnight risk-off move.

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MNQ Bearish Scenario

For continuation lower, I first want the premarket high to remain intact and price to lose:

28,855.75

Then:

28,815.50 — Daily Low

That takes price deeper into the Daily bullish FVG:

28,828 — FVG Midpoint

Then:

28,725.75 — FVG Low

Below that, the next major higher-timeframe objective is:

28,567.50 — Older NWOG High

That gives the main bearish path:

28,855.75 → 28,815.50 / 28,828 → 28,725.75 → 28,567.50

This is not an area where I want to aggressively chase shorts after the overnight decline.

A retracement first would create far better location.

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current: ~7,615

MES is behaving differently from MNQ.

Despite the broader overnight risk-off tone, MES is currently holding just above its opening structure and trading inside the New Week Opening Gap.

New Week Opening Gap

7,660.75 — High

7,648.00 — 75%

7,635.00 — Midpoint

7,622.25 — 25%

7,609.50 — Low

Current price is between the NWOG low and 25% level.

Other Important References

Premarket Swing High: 7,624.75

Daily High: 7,634.50

State-change area: ~7,615

This makes MES one of the cleaner decision charts this morning.

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MES Bullish Scenario

First, reclaim:

7,622.25 — NWOG 25%

Then:

7,624.75 — Premarket High

Then:

7,634.50 — Daily High

Which is essentially the:

7,635 — NWOG Midpoint

Above there:

7,648 — NWOG 75%

Then the previous state-change area near:

~7,657

And finally:

7,660.75 — NWOG High

That would completely close the New Week Opening Gap.

So the clean bullish ladder is:

7,622.25 → 7,624.75 → 7,634.50 / 7,635 → 7,648 → 7,657 → 7,660.75

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MES Bearish Scenario

If price fails around the current state-change area and falls back beneath the NWOG low:

7,609.50

Then:

7,596.75

Then:

7,592.75 — Daily Low

Then:

7,585.50 — Monthly Low

Below there, we move deeper into the larger Weekly bullish FVG:

7,574.25 — 25%

Then an older New Week Opening Gap begins around:

7,549.25

This sits close to:

7,543.50 — Quarterly Open

and:

7,542.75 — Previous Month Low

That creates a major lower-timeframe target cluster:

7,549.25–7,542.75

The bearish ladder is therefore:

7,609.50 → 7,596.75 → 7,592.75 → 7,585.50 → 7,574.25 → 7,549.25 → 7,543.50 / 7,542.75

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Primary Intermarket Scenarios

🟢 Scenario 1 — Overnight Risk-Off Move Retraces

VIX fails to reclaim 17.50 and breaks 17.09–17.11.

DXY pulls back from its overnight expansion.

Gold stabilizes around the yearly-open area.

MNQ clears 28,977 → 29,017 → 29,070.

MES reclaims 7,622 → 7,635.

That would suggest much of the overnight selloff was already priced and New York is moving into a 1→2 retracement.

The initial upside objectives become:

MNQ: 29,135 → 29,231

MES: 7,648 → 7,660.75

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🔴 Scenario 2 — Risk-Off Continuation

VIX holds 17.09–17.11, reclaims 17.50, and begins rotating toward 18.02/18.17.

DXY holds above the monthly open and resumes higher.

MNQ fails beneath 28,977/29,017 and loses 28,855.

MES loses 7,609.50 and cannot recover the NWOG.

Then the downside objectives become:

MNQ: 28,815 → 28,725.75 → 28,567.50

MES: 7,592.75 → 7,585.50 → 7,574.25 → 7,549

This is the cleaner bearish continuation model.

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⚪ Scenario 3 — Monday Range / No Trade

This may be the most important scenario considering both market structure and today's trader condition.

We could simply see:

VIX oscillate between 17.11 and 17.50

MNQ stay between 28,850 and 29,020

MES stay inside the lower half of the NWOG

with no clean displacement or aligned intermarket signal.

If that happens, there is absolutely no reason to manufacture a setup.

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High Post

Today is a capital-preservation day before it is a trading day.

The charts are useful, but my condition is part of the setup.

I am sleep-deprived, mentally drained, and physically tired. That means I should require more confirmation than normal, not less.

The macro environment also gives me no reason to force anything:

No major Monday data. No meaningful earnings catalyst. Large overnight moves have already occurred. The real event of the week is Wednesday's Fed decision.

The most important levels are:

VIX

17.09–17.11 → 17.50 → 18.17

MNQ

28,855 → 28,977 → 29,070 → 29,231

MES

7,609.50 → 7,622 → 7,635 → 7,648

If I get a clear A+ setup, micros are enough.

If the market gives me ambiguity, watching it is enough.

The objective today is not to make money. The objective is to avoid turning exhaustion into bad execution.