2026-09-16

DXY

Pre-Market Playbook — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Market Context

Today is fundamentally an FOMC day, which changes the standard for taking a trade.

The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting concludes today with the rate decision, FOMC statement and economic projections at 2:00 PM ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The Federal Reserve calendar confirms those times. (Federal Reserve)

The two primary market headlines are:

Stock futures edge higher ahead of pivotal Fed rate decision: Live updates

Yield on 10-year Treasury hovers above 5% as investors await Fed decision

The 10-year Treasury yield holding above 5% is an important piece of today's macro picture. Meanwhile, the rate market is heavily positioned for a 25-basis-point hike, according to the pricing referenced in the morning prep. That makes today's reaction potentially more complicated than simply "hike = bearish" or "hold = bullish." What the Fed communicates about the path ahead—and how Treasury yields react—could matter as much as the decision itself.

There is also international inflation pressure. UK CPI rose to 3.1% year over year in August, from 2.9% in July, with transport/fuel contributing significantly to the increase. (The Independent)

Geopolitically, the morning First Squawk feed adds two Middle East headlines: a Houthi spokesperson claimed an attack on an Aramco facility in Yanbu, while another headline said the Houthis told U.S. officials they would avoid attacking Israeli vessels. Those remain secondary catalysts rather than the central driver going into FOMC.

The trading posture is therefore simple:

There is no reason to manufacture a trade today.

If the cash open gives a clean setup before the afternoon event, it can be evaluated normally. If price remains in the low-liquidity grind we've seen overnight, sitting out is entirely consistent with the playbook.

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Economic Calendar

8:30 AM — Core Retail Sales m/m

Forecast: +0.6% Previous: -0.3%

8:30 AM — Retail Sales m/m

Forecast: +0.8% Previous: -0.6%

8:30 AM — Import Prices m/m

Forecast: +0.4% Previous: -0.4%

10:00 AM

Business Inventories m/m

Forecast: +0.6% Previous: 0.0%

NAHB Housing Market Index

Forecast: 34 Previous: 35

10:30 AM — Crude Oil Inventories

Forecast: -1.6M Previous: -0.4M

🔴 2:00 PM — FOMC

Federal Funds Rate

Forecast shown on the calendar: 4.00% Previous: 3.75%

Also released:

• ▸FOMC Economic Projections
• ▸FOMC Statement

🔴 2:30 PM — FOMC Press Conference

This creates multiple volatility windows, not just the 2:00 release.

The initial algorithmic reaction to the rate decision can reverse when the statement/projections are processed, and another repricing can occur during the press conference.

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U.S. Dollar — Macro Confirmation

Current: ~99.69

DXY continues to hold the larger bullish expansion but has compressed immediately beneath an important liquidity cluster.

Immediate Upside

99.735 — Daily High → 99.863 — Monthly High → 100.058 — Weekly Bearish FVG Low → 100.083 — Previous Week High

A move through 99.863 would put the dollar back above 100 for the first time since August and directly into the weekly imbalance.

That makes:

99.735 → 99.863

the immediate breakout sequence.

Above it:

100.058–100.083

becomes the larger objective.

Dollar Bearish Scenario

Failure from the current highs gives:

99.537 — Daily Low → 99.421 — Monthly Open / Monthly Level → 99.178 — CISD → 99.103 — Weekly Open

The chart is particularly interesting because DXY is consolidating directly underneath external liquidity rather than meaningfully rejecting it.

Dollar strength + rising Treasury yields would create a difficult backdrop for sustained equity expansion.

A rejection of both would change that equation.

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Gold — Macro Confirmation

Current: ~4,384

Gold has staged an impressive recovery from yesterday's lows and is now trading directly inside the NWOG.

NWOG

4,389.8 — High 4,382.2 — Midpoint 4,374.5 — Low / Weekly Open

Price is sitting almost directly at the midpoint.

That makes the current location a legitimate decision area.

Gold Bullish Scenario

The first objective is reclaiming:

4,389.8 — NWOG High

Then:

~4,396.8 — Weekly High

Above there, price moves into Friday's upper wick.

The next larger objective is approximately:

4,415 — Wick Midpoint

Then:

4,445.2 — Previous Day High → 4,479.3 — Prior Swing High → 4,482 — 1H Bearish FVG Low

So:

4,389.8 → 4,396.8 → 4,415 → 4,445.2 → 4,479.3/4,482

Gold Bearish Scenario

Failure from the NWOG gives:

4,374.5 — NWOG Low / Weekly Open → ~4,361.2 — Premarket Swing Low → ~4,348.7 — 1H CISD → ~4,338 — Yearly Open

The 4,374.5 level is therefore the first meaningful downside decision point.

Gold isn't presenting a particularly compelling entry at the moment. It is sitting directly inside a major gap with liquidity available in both directions.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current: ~16.74

This is one of today's most important charts.

VIX has now taken yesterday's low and is trading directly around the NWOG midpoint.

NWOG

17.50 — High / Weekly Open

17.09 — 75%

16.67 — Midpoint

16.26 — 25%

15.84 — Low

Additional levels:

16.58 — Monday/Weekly Low 15.59 — Prior Low

The chart is currently testing the dividing line between continued volatility compression and a potential retracement.

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VIX Bearish / Equity Bullish Scenario

Take:

16.67

Then:

16.58

Below that:

~16.43 → 16.26 → 15.84 → 15.59

The clean contraction ladder is:

16.67 → 16.58 → 16.43 → 16.26 → 15.84 → 15.59

Acceptance beneath 16.58 would strengthen the case for equities sweeping their overhead liquidity.

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VIX Bullish / Equity Bearish Scenario

The first retracement level is:

16.91 — Daily Open

Then:

17.09 — NWOG 75%

Immediately above:

17.15 — Daily High

Then:

17.31 → 17.50 — NWOG High / Weekly Open → 17.84 — Yesterday's Swing High

So:

16.91 → 17.09 → 17.15 → 17.31 → 17.50 → 17.84

A small bounce from 16.67 isn't enough by itself.

Acceptance above 17.09 begins changing the intraday volatility picture.

A move through 17.50 would be considerably more important.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current: ~29,430

MNQ spent most of the overnight session in a low-liquidity grind higher after yesterday's selloff failed to produce meaningful continuation through external liquidity.

That gives us a potentially interesting situation because there is now a substantial amount of liquidity stacked immediately overhead.

Immediate Upside Liquidity

29,484.25 — Yesterday's Swing High

29,495.75 — Previous Day High

29,508.25 — Swing High

29,518.50 — Monthly Open

That is effectively one large zone:

29,484–29,519

There is little reason to treat each of those as completely separate objectives.

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MNQ Bullish Scenario

First take:

29,484–29,519

If price accepts above that cluster:

29,594 → 29,634 → 29,686.75

Then comes the larger HTF objective:

29,759 — Daily Bearish FVG Low

So:

29,484–29,519 → 29,594 → 29,634 → 29,686.75 → 29,759

This is where the VIX relationship becomes particularly useful.

If MNQ attacks 29,484–29,519 while VIX simultaneously breaks 16.67 → 16.58, the intermarket structure supports continuation.

But because this entire overnight rally has occurred through relatively poor liquidity conditions, a sweep of the highs followed by rejection is equally important to monitor.

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MNQ Bearish Scenario

First:

29,325.50 — Premarket Low

Then:

29,268.50 — Daily Open

Followed immediately by:

29,231.50 — NWOG Midpoint 29,225.75 — Daily Low

That creates another important cluster:

29,225–29,232

Below:

29,146.50 — Swing Low → 29,070.25 — NWOG Low / Weekly Open

Deeper expansion:

28,930 → 28,815.50 — Weekly Low

So:

29,325.50 → 29,268.50 → 29,231.50/29,225.75 → 29,146.50 → 29,070.25

Then, only with genuine downside expansion:

28,930 → 28,815.50

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current: ~7,684

MES has almost the same overnight character as MNQ:

Yesterday's selloff → failure to expand → overnight low-liquidity recovery.

But MES is sitting at a particularly interesting HTF location:

7,684.25 — Weekly Bullish FVG 75%

Price is effectively trading directly on it.

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MES Bullish Scenario

The immediate objective is:

7,697.50 — Swing High

Then comes a significant cluster:

~7,701 — Yesterday's High / Weekly High / Monthly Open region

Above:

7,718.25 — Swing High → 7,725.75 — Previous Week High → 7,739.25 — Weekly Bullish FVG High

Then:

7,766.50 — Daily Bearish FVG Low

Bullish ladder:

7,697.50 → 7,701 → 7,718.25 → 7,725.75 → 7,739.25 → 7,766.50

Again, there is a lot of liquidity immediately overhead.

A sweep isn't automatically continuation.

The reaction afterward matters.

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MES Bearish Scenario

The first structural decision comes around:

7,670.50 — Potential CISD

Then:

~7,663.75 — Daily Open / Swing Low → 7,660.75 — NWOG High → 7,658.75 — Daily Low

Below:

7,648 — NWOG 75%

Then:

7,643.50 — Previous Day Low → 7,635 — NWOG Midpoint → 7,629.25 — Weekly Bullish FVG Midpoint → 7,622.25 — NWOG 25% → ~7,621.50 — Monday Swing Low → 7,609.50 — NWOG Low

The key bearish sequence is therefore:

7,670.50 → 7,660.75 → 7,648 → 7,643.50

Only after that does the deeper:

7,635 → 7,629.25 → 7,622 → 7,609.50

sequence become particularly interesting.

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Intermarket Scenarios

🟢 Scenario 1 — Premarket Grind Converts Into Expansion

VIX breaks:

16.67 → 16.58 → 16.43 → 16.26

MNQ takes:

29,484–29,519

and accepts above it toward:

29,594 → 29,634 → 29,686

MES clears:

7,697.50–7,701

then:

7,718 → 7,725.75 → 7,739.25

This would validate the overnight equity recovery.

The strongest version would also have Treasury yields backing away from their highs and DXY failing to break 99.735/99.863.

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🔴 Scenario 2 — Buy-Side Sweep → Reversal

This may be the more interesting bearish setup because of where liquidity currently sits.

MNQ sweeps:

29,484–29,519

but fails to accept above it.

MES simultaneously sweeps:

7,697–7,701

and rejects.

VIX tests 16.67/16.58, refuses to continue lower and reclaims:

16.91 → 17.09

Then look for the equity retracement:

MNQ: 29,325 → 29,268 → 29,231

MES: 7,670 → 7,660 → 7,648

That would give us an actual liquidity event followed by confirmation rather than attempting to short the overnight grind simply because it "looks high."

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⚪ Scenario 3 — FOMC Hold Pattern

This is entirely plausible.

MNQ remains trapped roughly between:

29,325 ↔ 29,519

MES remains around:

7,660 ↔ 7,701

VIX holds:

16.58 ↔ 17.09

Price churns around internal liquidity throughout the morning while participants wait for 2:00 PM.

There is nothing wrong with doing absolutely nothing in that environment.

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FOMC Context

Today's scheduled decision creates an unusual asymmetry.

The calendar shows a 4.00% forecast versus 3.75% previous, while market pricing referenced in the morning prep heavily favors a 25-basis-point hike.

That means the decision cannot be interpreted in isolation.

A 25 bp hike could still produce an equity rally if it is already fully discounted and the projections/statement suggest limited additional tightening.

A hold could produce an initial equity rally from the lower policy rate but a very different secondary reaction if the Fed communicates that inflation risks require future tightening.

Likewise, the 2:30 press conference can invalidate the 2:00 move.

So today's post-FOMC sequence is potentially:

Rate decision → projections/statement → initial repricing → press conference → second repricing.

That's another reason not to assume the first candle establishes the actual direction.

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High Post

Today doesn't require a prediction.

It requires patience.

The overnight session has produced a low-liquidity recovery while MNQ and MES are approaching substantial buy-side liquidity. At the same time, VIX is approaching meaningful sell-side liquidity around 16.67–16.58.

That gives us a very clean intermarket test.

Equity bullish confirmation

VIX < 16.58

while:

MNQ > 29,519

and:

MES > 7,701

Equity bearish confirmation

VIX sweeps 16.67/16.58 and reclaims:

16.91 → 17.09

while:

MNQ rejects 29,484–29,519

and:

MES rejects 7,697–7,701

No Trade

All three simply remain trapped around those levels.

And with FOMC sitting at 2:00 PM, there is absolutely no reason to force the third scenario into one of the first two.

The market has a reason to wait today. So do I. If the morning doesn't give me a clean trade, the correct position is no position.

Would you rather map the pre-FOMC morning session or the post-2:00 PM reaction first?