2026-09-17

DXY

Pre-Market Playbook — Thursday, September 17, 2026

Market Context

Yesterday delivered the event the market had been waiting for: the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. The vote was unanimous, and the FOMC said inflation remains elevated while economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace. (Federal Reserve)

The immediate equity reaction was a selloff, but this morning futures have substantially reversed that move. Dow futures were up roughly 400 points in the premarket as equities attempted to recover from the post-Fed decline, with easing Treasury yields and oil prices also providing support. (Quartz)

CNBC — Dow futures rise as market tries to recover after Fed sell-off

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England took a different path. It held Bank Rate at 3.75% rather than following the Fed higher. The backdrop remains complicated by UK inflation at 3.1% versus the BoE's 2% target, particularly with continued energy-price uncertainty from the Middle East. (Bank of England)

CNBC — Bank of England defies Fed’s rate-hike lead, leaving rates unchanged

The other macro variable remains the Middle East. Oman continues to play a mediation role in talks involving the Houthis, while the broader Saudi/Houthi and Iran-related situation remains a potential source of unscheduled volatility, particularly through oil. U.S. officials also recently met Houthi representatives in Oman regarding maritime security and the existing ceasefire. (Reuters)

The important market-development this morning

Yesterday's FOMC selloff has essentially been retraced overnight.

At the same time:

• ▸VIX exploded as high as 18.94 yesterday and has now collapsed to roughly 15.66.
• ▸MNQ has recovered yesterday's decline and is pressing through multiple prior highs.
• ▸MES has recovered the selloff and is trading above the 7,701 monthly-open area.
• ▸DXY remains above 100 following yesterday's expansion.
• ▸Gold has recovered aggressively and is back above its NWOG.

That is powerful short-term risk-on behavior.

But it creates a different problem:

MNQ, MES and VIX are already extended.

The question isn't whether the overnight move was bullish. It clearly was.

The question is whether there is an attractive location to participate after the move has already occurred.

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Economic Calendar

8:30 AM ET

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Forecast: 31.3 Previous: 47.4

Unemployment Claims

Forecast: 207K Previous: 206K

Building Permits

Forecast: 1.40M Previous: 1.43M

Housing Starts

Forecast: 1.32M Previous: 1.24M

10:00 AM ET

Pending Home Sales m/m

Forecast: -0.2% Previous: -2.3%

10:30 AM ET

Natural Gas Storage

Forecast: 49B Previous: 40B

The 8:30 releases give the market a legitimate catalyst immediately before the cash session, but unlike yesterday, there is no afternoon FOMC event hanging over the entire trading day.

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DXY — Dollar Roadmap

Current: ~100.16

Yesterday's Fed decision produced a major dollar expansion, pushing DXY through the 100 handle and directly into the weekly bearish FVG.

The structure is:

100.058 — Weekly FVG Low 100.206 — ~25% region 100.354 — Weekly FVG Midpoint 100.650 — Weekly FVG High

DXY is currently consolidating in the lower portion of that imbalance.

Dollar Bullish Scenario

First reclaim:

100.272 — Daily Open

Then:

100.354 — Weekly FVG Midpoint → 100.367 — Monthly High → 100.463 — Previous Day High

Beyond that, the chart leaves room toward:

100.502 → 100.650

The key immediate area is therefore:

100.354–100.367

Acceptance above that zone keeps yesterday's dollar expansion intact.

Dollar Bearish Scenario

First:

100.101 — Daily Low

Then:

100.058 — Weekly FVG Low

Losing the FVG opens the door toward yesterday's displacement:

~99.944 — 1H Bullish FVG Midpoint

So the downside sequence is:

100.101 → 100.058 → 99.944

DXY is useful today primarily as confirmation. A simultaneous DXY rejection + VIX continuation lower would provide a cleaner macro backdrop for the equity rally.

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Gold — Macro / Intermarket Read

Current: ~4,394

Gold has produced another substantial recovery and is now trading above the NWOG.

NWOG

4,389.8 — High 4,382.2 — Midpoint 4,374.5 — Low / Weekly Open

Price is currently testing above the high.

Gold Bullish Scenario

Hold above:

4,389.8

Then:

4,414.1 — Weekly High

Above that:

4,445.2 — Previous Day High

That gives:

4,389.8 → 4,414.1 → 4,445.2

The first target is close enough that chasing the current expansion isn't particularly attractive.

Gold Pullback Scenario

Return through:

4,389.8 → 4,382.2 → 4,374.5

Then:

~4,366.5 — Order Block → ~4,343.7 — Swing Low → 4,338.1 — Yearly Open

Deeper:

~4,323.8

Gold's daily open is much lower around 4,303.6, with the daily low around 4,294.3, illustrating how far price has already expanded from today's origin.

Like the indices, this is currently more useful as intermarket information than an entry to chase.

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VIX — Volatility Roadmap

Current: ~15.66

Yesterday:

Weekly High: 18.94

Today:

Current: ~15.66

That is an enormous volatility unwind.

VIX has already broken:

17.50 NWOG High → 17.09 → 16.67 NWOG Midpoint → 16.26 → 16.03 Daily Open → 15.84 NWOG Low

This is a textbook example of why yesterday's first post-FOMC reaction couldn't simply be assumed to establish today's direction.

We're now dealing with an already-developed 0→1 downside expansion.

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VIX Bearish / Equity Bullish Scenario

Current low is approximately:

15.64

Immediately below:

15.59 — Recent Low

Then:

15.56 — Older NWOG High / Prior Low region

That makes:

15.59–15.56

the first major sell-side liquidity cluster.

Below:

15.30 — NWOG 75% → 15.22 — Previous Week Low → 15.05 — NWOG Midpoint → 14.95 — Monthly Open → 14.85 — Yearly Open → 14.79 — NWOG 25%

So:

15.59/15.56 → 15.30 → 15.22 → 15.05 → 14.95 → 14.85/14.79

There is plenty of liquidity beneath VIX.

But there's an important distinction:

VIX is already extended lower.

That makes chasing equities higher at the same time inherently less attractive.

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VIX Bullish Retracement / Equity Pullback Scenario

The first requirement is simply getting back above:

16.03 — Daily Open

Then:

16.29 — Daily High

From there:

16.67 — NWOG Midpoint

Then:

17.09 — NWOG 75%

So:

16.03 → 16.29 → 16.67 → 17.09

A VIX retracement into 16.03–16.29 while MNQ/MES pull back would fit the expected 1→2 retracement after this morning's large 0→1 move.

The critical distinction is whether that becomes merely a retracement or the beginning of something larger.

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MNQ — Nasdaq Playbook

Current: ~29,689

MNQ has now completely recovered yesterday's Fed selloff and has taken several prior highs.

The 1m through 1H timeframe matrix is predominantly bullish, and the overnight expansion has effectively turned yesterday's selloff into a liquidity event rather than sustained bearish delivery.

But again:

We are already in the 0→1 expansion.

There hasn't been a meaningful 1→2 retracement.

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MNQ Bullish Scenario

The next major objective is immediately overhead:

29,759 — Daily Bearish FVG Low

Right around it:

29,764.75 — Previous Week High

Then:

29,811.75 — Previous Week High

Above that:

29,906.25 — Daily Bearish FVG Midpoint

So:

29,759 → 29,764.75 → 29,811.75 → 29,906.25

The larger Daily FVG remains:

29,759 — Low 29,906.25 — Midpoint 30,053.25 — High

There's therefore plenty of upside draw remaining.

The problem is entry location, not absence of targets.

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MNQ Retracement / Bearish Scenario

The first lower-timeframe decision area begins around:

29,586.25 — Lower-Timeframe SMR/MAR Region

Then:

29,555 — Swing Low

Below:

29,518.50 — Monthly Open

That's the first meaningful structural test.

Losing the monthly open opens:

~29,460 — Order Block → 29,368.75 — Swing Low

Then substantially lower:

29,270.25 — Daily Open → 29,247.50 — Daily Low

So:

29,586 → 29,555 → 29,518.50

is the normal retracement area.

Below that:

29,460 → 29,368.75

starts looking more like an actual deterioration of the overnight bullish delivery.

And only beneath there does:

29,270.25 → 29,247.50

become the larger downside draw.

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MES — S&P Playbook

Current: ~7,710

MES has produced essentially the same structure.

Yesterday's selloff has been completely recovered.

Price has reclaimed:

7,701 — Monthly Open / Previous High region

and is now attacking additional external liquidity.

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MES Bullish Scenario

Immediate:

7,718.25 — Swing High

Then:

7,725.75 — Previous Week High

Next:

7,739.25 — Weekly Bullish FVG High

Above there comes the larger Daily imbalance:

7,766.50 — Daily Bearish FVG Low

Then:

7,781.50 — Daily FVG Midpoint 7,796.50 — Daily FVG High

Therefore:

7,718.25 → 7,725.75 → 7,739.25 → 7,766.50

is the immediate upside ladder.

And just like MNQ:

There are targets. There isn't necessarily an A+ entry at the current extension.

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MES Retracement / Bearish Scenario

The first major decision is:

7,701 — Monthly Open

Losing it would represent a failure to hold today's breakout.

Then:

7,682.25 — Swing Low

Followed by:

7,671.25 → ~7,669 — Order Block

Then:

7,656.25

And potentially:

~7,643

So:

7,701 → 7,682.25 → 7,671/7,669 → 7,656 → 7,643

The daily open is considerably lower near 7,624, with today's low around 7,617.50.

A move all the way back there would represent far more than a routine 1→2 retracement.

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Primary Intermarket Confirmation

Today's structure is almost the inverse of yesterday morning.

Yesterday we had:

VIX elevated + equities recovering from weakness + FOMC ahead.

Today we have:

VIX collapsing + equities already expanded + FOMC behind us.

That creates three primary scenarios.

🟢 Scenario 1 — 0→1 Continues Without Meaningful Retracement

VIX:

15.59/15.56 → 15.30 → 15.22

MNQ:

29,759 → 29,764.75 → 29,811.75

MES:

7,718.25 → 7,725.75 → 7,739.25

This remains structurally bullish.

But it may still be a poor new-entry environment because all three instruments are already extended in the same direction.

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🔵 Scenario 2 — Healthy 1→2 Retracement

This is potentially the most useful scenario from a setup-development standpoint.

VIX retraces:

16.03 → 16.29

while MNQ pulls back toward:

29,586 → 29,555 → 29,518

and MES pulls back toward:

7,701 → 7,682

Then we evaluate whether the lower-timeframe structure establishes a MAR and accepts the existing bullish state of delivery.

If so, that potentially gives:

0→1 complete → 1→2 retracement → 2→3 continuation

rather than buying the end of the first expansion.

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🔴 Scenario 3 — Overnight Rally Fails

This requires considerably more evidence.

VIX reclaims:

16.03 → 16.29

and continues toward:

16.67

while MNQ loses:

29,518.50

and MES loses:

7,682 → 7,669

Now the move is no longer simply a shallow retracement.

MNQ could then seek:

29,460 → 29,368

MES could seek:

7,656 → 7,643

And a VIX move through 16.67 would materially strengthen the risk-off confirmation.

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High Post

Yesterday's Fed selloff matters.

But so does what happened afterward.

The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, yet by this morning the indices have recovered yesterday's decline, VIX has fallen from 18.94 to the mid-15s, MNQ has swept multiple prior highs, MES has reclaimed the monthly-open region, and DXY remains above 100. (Federal Reserve)

That tells us something important about today's structure:

The overnight market has already made the easy move.

MNQ is approaching:

29,759–29,812

MES is approaching:

7,718–7,739

while VIX is approaching:

15.59–15.56

Those are exactly the locations where chasing the existing move becomes less attractive.

The cleaner opportunity may come after those liquidity objectives are reached—or after the market finally gives us the retracement that the overnight session hasn't provided.

Today's framework

0→1: Already underway / potentially near completion.

1→2: Wait for the retracement.

MAR: Determine whether the retracement accepts or rejects the existing state of delivery.

2→3: Participate only after confirmation.

There is no requirement that the market give us that sequence before the cash open—or at all.

The Fed created yesterday's volatility. Overnight price has already repriced it. Today, don't pay the premium for a move that happened while we were sleeping.

Would you rather focus on the first cash-session retracement or the key levels that would confirm the overnight rally is failing?